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Global Macro Themes For 2021: Pandemic Will Ease, Side Effects Will Linger

The year 2020 was very challenging given the unprecedented and unpredictable healthcare shock that resulted in a record-large global recession. As long as a vaccine is not readily available, uncertainty will linger into 2021 and full economic normalisation will take several quarters yet. This crisis will result in a more challenging policymaking environment and could lead to difficult political and geopolitical trade-offs in the coming years.

In this special report, we outline the 8 Key Global Themes that, in our view will dominate the coming year, including the divergence between developed and emerging markets, rising political risks, growing constraints and dilemmas for policymakers and upside asset reflation risks as the economy bounces. We also highlight the Key Global Risks that we believe pose the greatest threat to our view for a recovery of the global economy.

The report also takes a close look at key themes for each region, including:

Asia: Increased anti-establishment sentiment to undermine social stability
Europe: Covid-19 pandemic to exacerbate pre-existing discontent and divisions Latin America: Accommodative financing conditions will ease immediate fiscal strains Middle East & North Africa: GCC workforce "nationalization" drives will push ahead Sub-Saharan Africa: Governments to prioritise fiscal consolidation

Publication Date: December 2020

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Global Macro Themes For 2021: Pandemic Will Ease, Side Effects Will Linger
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