Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report Q3 2011

Published : May 2011
No. of Pages : 49

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Azerbaijan has heralded strong growth figures in the chemicals and petrochemicals sectors as evidence that it is reaching its potential, but BMI’s latest Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report is mindful that output remains at a very low level.
In the first two months of 2011, the value of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR)’s chemical output increased by 60.2% y-o-y, to US$10.61mn, of which US$6.62mn was exported. Much of this increase was related to improved prices, with the volume of chemicals output rising just 0.3% y-o-y. The value and volume of Azerbaijan’s chemicals output is miniscule, but is set to grow over coming years. In 2010, investments in the chemicals sector fell 67.2% y-o-y to just AZN1.3mn (US$1.63mn), although compared with 2008 investment grew 42.4%.
The country reported some modest steps forward in H111. In Q111, SOCAR laid a 60km gas pipeline to supply dry gas produced at the Heydar Aliyev Refinery to Azerkimya’s ethylene-polyethylene complex. Around 92,000tpa of gas will be supplied to the facility, ensuring a good supply of feedstock to the petrochemicals industry. Meanwhile, in 2011 SOCAR plans to begin the construction of a carbamide plant in Sumqayit, following the completion of a feasibility study. In February 2011, US-based UOP indicated that it was interested in preparing a feasibility study for a new oil and gas processing and petrochemical complex to be built in Azerbaijan. No details were given on proposed capacities. SOCAR said that the Baju Oil Refinery would need further modernisation if it were to supply feedstock to any petrochemicals facility.
Azerbaijan is in 11th and last place in BMI’s Central And Eastern Europe Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings, with a score of 33.3, up 0.1 point since the previous quarter due to an increase in its long-term economic structure rating. Azerbaijan lies 6.2 points behind Ukraine in the regional rating. The score could rise if plans for a new petrochemicals complex come to fruition. Azerbaijan’s considerable energy reserves and rising gas output have been hampered from improving the petrochemicals capacity, largely due to the poor business environment which has deterred investors. However, there are signs that this is changing for the better as the government makes a concerted effort at restructuring the sector.

SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 6
Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Industry SWOT .......................................................................................................................................................... 6
Global Overview .............................................................................................................................................. 7
Petrochemicals Market Overview ......................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Financial Results ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 11
Global Oil Products Price Outlook ..................................................................................................................................................................... 12
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl)........................................................................................................................... 12
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) ................................................................................................................. 15
European Petrochemicals Overview ............................................................................................................ 17
Market Overview ............................................................................................................................................ 22
Table: Azerbaijan’s Petrochemicals Sector – Cracker Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2004-2012 (‘000tpa) ...................................................... 22
Table: Manufacture Of Petrochemicals Products, 1999-2009 (‘000tonnes) ........................................................................................................ 23
Industry Trends And Developments ............................................................................................................ 25
Upstream Activities ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 27
Petrochemicals ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Petkim Privatisation ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings ........................................................................................ 32
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings .......................................................................................... 32
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 34
Table: Azerbaijan’s Petrochemicals Sector, 2007-2014 (‘000tpa, unless otherwise stated) ................................................................................ 34
Macroeconomic Outlook ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Table: Azerbaijan – Economic Activity ............................................................................................................................................................... 38
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 39
Azerkimya ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 39
State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) ........................................................................................................................................................ 41
Glossary Of Terms ........................................................................................................................................ 45
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms ......................................................................................................................................................... 45
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 46
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 46
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry ............................................................................................................................................................ 46
Cross Checks ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 47
Business Environment Ratings ............................................................................................................................................................................ 48
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale ............................................................................................................. 48
Weighting ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 49
Table: Weighting Of Indicators .......................................................................................................................................................................... 49

Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report Q3 2011

Published By: Business Monitor International

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