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Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011

Report Summary

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Published : January 2011
No. of Pages : 99

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Report Summary

The latest Azerbaijan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.53% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 9.45% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 will rise to an estimated 6.05mn b/d in 2010.

It should increase to around 6.89mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8.89mn b/d in 2001 and in 2010 will average an estimated 13.82mn b/d. It is set to rise to 15.08mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.47mn b/d. This total will rise to an estimated 7.76mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 8.19mn b/d by 2015. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the most important exporter.

In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 will consume an estimated 636.3bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 747.7bcm targeted for 2015, representing 17.5% growth. Production of an estimated 787.9bcm in 2010 should reach 954.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 151.6bcm in 2010 to 206.5bcm by the end of the period. Azerbaijan’s share of gas consumption in 2010 will be an estimated 1.27%, while its share of production is put at 2.22%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 1.55%, with the country accounting for 2.20% of supply.

For 2010 as a whole, we assume an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl, +26.5% year-on-year (y-o-y). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$79.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21 and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40 and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl.

For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a y-o-y rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.500/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous year’s level.

Azeri real GDP is assumed to have risen by 4.0% in 2010. We are forecasting average annual growth of 6.1% in 2010-2015. Domestic oil consumption, having tumbled since the 1990s, should now have resumed a growth tack, and is estimated at an average of 7% per annum. By 2015, the country is projected to be using 105,000b/d of oil. The main government vehicle, Socar, currently accounts for almost half of domestic oil production but, in partnership with international oil companies (IOCs), should raise national output from an estimated 1.06mn b/d in 2010 to 1.43mn b/d by 2015. Gas production should increase from an estimated 17.5bcm in 2010 to 21.0bcm during the forecast period.

Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Azeri oil and gas liquids production of 2.2%, with volumes reaching a peak of 1.45mn b/d in 2016/17, before falling to 1.30mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 96.7%, with growth averaging an assumed 7.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 147,000b/d by 2020. Gas production should rise from the estimated 2010 level of 17.5bcm to 32.0bcm by 2020, providing export potential increasing to at least 17.2bcm.

Azerbaijan now holds second place, behind only Kazakhstan, in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. The country continues to occupy second place in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment ratings, now four points behind neighbour Kazakhstan. Its oil and gas production growth outlook, asset immaturity, high reserves-toproduction ratios (RPR) and competitive landscape work in the country’s favour, but are undermined by a relatively unappealing risk environment. Azerbaijan is around the mid-point of the league table in BMI’s downstream Business Environment ratings, taking eighth place behind Kazakhstan thanks to some high scores, with long-term progress further up the rankings a possibility. The low level of retail site intensity is a strong suit, along with region-leading oil demand growth prospects.

Table Of Contents

Executive Summary
Azerbaijan Energy Market Overview
Global Oil Market Review
Regaining Momentum
Quarterly Trends
Global Oil Market Outlook
Sitting Comfortably
Oil Price Forecasts
Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook
Short-Term Demand Outlook

Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Short-Term Supply Outlook

Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)

Longer-Term Supply And Demand
Oil Price Assumptions

Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010

Table: Oil Price Forecasts

Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand

Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d)

Oil: Downstream

Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)

Gas Supply And Demand

Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm)

Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm)

Liquefied Natural Gas

Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)

Business Environment Ratings
Central/Eastern Europe Region
Composite Scores

Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating

Upstream Scores

Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating

Azerbaijan Upstream Rating - Overview
Azerbaijan Upstream Rating - Rewards
Azerbaijan Upstream Rating - Risks
Downstream Scores

Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating

Azerbaijan Downstream Rating - Overview
Azerbaijan Downstream Rating - Rewards
Azerbaijan Downstream Rating - Risks
Business Environment
Legal Framework
Infrastructure
Labour Force
Foreign Investment Policy
Tax Regime
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs

Table: Azerbaijan Oil And Gas - Historical Data And Forecasts

Other Energy

Table: Azerbaijan Other Energy - Historical Data And Forecasts

Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries

Table: Refineries In Azerbaijan

Service Stations
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals/ Ports
Oil Pipelines
Gas Pipelines
LNG
Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Azerbaijan - Economic Activity

Competitive Landscape

Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies

Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations

Table: Key Upstream Players

Table: Key Downstream Players

Company Monitor
Socar
BP Azerbaijan
Statoil
Lukoil Azerbaijan
Azpetrol
ExxonMobil - Summary
Eni - Summary
Inpex - Summary
Chevron - Summary
Azerbaijan Oil & Gas Report Q1 2011
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 5
Itochu/Delta Hess - Summary
TPAO - Summary
Total - Summary
ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) - Summary
Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC) - Summary
GDF Suez - Summary
RWE Dea - Summary
Others - Summary
Former Partners
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand

Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Regional Oil Supply

Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d)

Regional Refining Capacity

Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)

Regional Gas Demand

Table: CEE Gas Consumption (bcm)

Regional Gas Supply

Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm)

Azerbaijan Country Overview
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
Introduction
Ratings Overview

Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure

Indicators

Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology

Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology

BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross Checks
Sources

List Of Tables

Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) . 16
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d). 17
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010 . 20
Table: Oil Price Forecasts . 20
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) . 22
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d) . 23
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) . 24
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) . 25
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm) . 26
Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) . 27
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating . 29
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating. 30
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating . 32
Table: Azerbaijan Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts . 45
Table: Azerbaijan Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts. 46
Table: Refineries In Azerbaijan . 48
Table: Azerbaijan - Economic Activity . 58
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies . 60
Table: Key Upstream Players . 65
Table: Key Downstream Players . 65
Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d) . 86
Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d) . 87
Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) . 88
Table: CEE Gas Consumption (bcm) . 89
Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm) . 90
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure . 94
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology . 95
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology . 96

Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011

Published By: Business Monitor International

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