Algeria Petrochemicals Report Q1 2011

Report Summary

Algeria's petrochemicals industry will be intimately bound up with developments in Europe, its main market, which is set for a period of downturn in 2011 but will pick up in time for the addition of new production capacity, according to BMI’s latest Algeria Petrochemicals Report.

The completion of the Arzew complex, delayed to 2014, will coincide with the full return to pre-crisis levels of demand and at a time when global markets will have adjusted and industries in Europe restructured in response to the massive increase in petrochemicals capacities in Asia and the Middle East in 2009-2011. This should ensure that increases in Algerian petrochemicals production will be profitable. However, an uncertain business environment and delays to the Arzew ethylene cracker are undermining the industry’s progress.

In August 2010, Qatar Petroleum (QP) secured a 10% stake in the planned ethane cracker at Arzew, western Algeria, joining France’s Total and Algeria’s Sonatrach in the joint venture (JV) project. Sonatrach had originally awarded a contract to Total to construct the ethane cracker where Total had a controlling 51% stake and Algeria’s Sonatrach 49%. However, new governmental regulations obliging local partners to control the majority of any JV project with foreign partners have forced the French oil giant to relinquish some of its share. This situation has affected the development of the US$5bn project which was slated for completion in 2013, but is unlikely to come online until 2014. Now QP has 10% stake in the project, Total holds 41% and Sonatrach holds 49% of the project. The cracker will have the capacity to produce 1.1mn tpa ethylene with downstream units including 550,000tpa of mono ethylene glycol, 350,000tpa HDPE and 450,000tpa LLDPE, mainly for export.

In addition, two major new fertiliser complexes are on track in Arzew. The US$1.9bn Sorfert Algérie complex, a 51:49 JV between Egypt’s OCI and Sonatrach, is scheduled to complete in 2011. Uhde was awarded the construction contract in September 2008. Sorfert was formed in April 2007 to build two ammonia trains – one designed for 1.2mn tpa and the other for 800,000tpa – and a urea production facility designed to produce 3,450tpd. In April 2008, Algeria Oman Fertiliser Company, a 51:49 JV between the Oman Bahwan Group and Sonatrach, signed contracts with MHI and Daewoo to construct a US$2.4bn fertiliser complex at Arzew. The Mers el-Hadjadj complex is scheduled to open in 2012 and will comprise two 2,000tpd ammonia trains and two 3,500tpd urea production and granulation facilities. Khelil had said approximately US$10bn would be invested in the Algerian petrochemicals industry in 2008. However, much of this investment was to have been directed towards upstream processing and refining, with plans for several liquefaction units in Skikda and Gassi Touil. However, Sonatrach cancelled the contracts of Spanish companies Repsol YPF and Gas Natural for the important Gassi Touil gas project, citing development delays and cost overruns as reasons for the decision. This indicates that the government has adopted an antagonistic relationship with foreign investors upstream and could damage prospects for investment in the downstream petrochemicals sector.
Algeria’s ethylene and PE capacities are forecast to remain static until 2014, after which they will increase with the addition of new capacity. By 2014, ethylene capacity should be 1.23mn tpa and PE capacity should reach 878,000tpa, with new capacity in the production of other derivatives. Methanol production capacity will increase by 1mn tpa to 1.12mn tpa with the expected completion of a plant by Sonatrach and new fertiliser plants should lead to ammonia and urea capacities of 5.59mn tpa and 3.59mn tpa respectively.