Table Of Contents
Executive Summary 7
Azerbaijan Energy Market Overview 9
Global Oil Market Outlook 10
Is The Price Right? 10
Oil Price Forecasts 11
Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook 12
Short-Term Demand Outlook 12
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) 13
Short-Term Supply Outlook 13
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) 14
Longer-Term Supply And Demand 15
Oil Price Assumptions 16
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010 16
Table: Oil Price Forecasts 16
Regional Energy Market Overview 17
Oil Supply And Demand 17
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) 18
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d) 19
Oil: Downstream 20
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 20
Gas Supply And Demand 21
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) 21
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm) 22
Liquefied Natural Gas 23
Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) 23
Business Environment Ranking 24
Central/Eastern Europe Region 24
Composite Scores 25
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating 25
Upstream Scores 26
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating 26
Azerbaijan Upstream Rating – Overview 27
Azerbaijan Upstream Rating – Potential Returns 27
Azerbaijan Upstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns 27
Downstream Scores 28
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating 28
Azerbaijan Downstream Rating – Overview 29
Azerbaijan Downstream Rating – Potential Returns 29
Azerbaijan Downstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns 29
Business Environment 30
Legal Framework 30
Infrastructure 31
Labour Force 32
Foreign Investment Policy 33
Tax Regime 34
Operational Risk 35
Industry Forecast Scenario 36
Oil And Gas Reserves 36
Oil Supply And Demand 36
Gas Supply And Demand 37
LNG 39
Refining And Oil Products Trade 39
Revenues/Import Costs 39
Table: Azerbaijan Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts 40
Other Energy 41
Table: Azerbaijan Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts 41
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 42
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook 42
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 43
Oil Refineries 43
Table: Refineries in Azerbaijan 43
Service Stations 45
Oil Storage Facilities 45
Oil Terminals/ Ports 45
Oil Pipelines 46
Gas Pipelines 47
LNG 49
Macroeconomic Outlook 51
Table: Azerbaijan - Economic Activity 52
Competitive Landscape 53
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies 54
Overview/State Role 54
Licensing And Regulation 54
Government Policy 55
Licensing Rounds 55
International Energy Relations 55
Table: Key Upstream Players 59
Table: Key Downstream Players 59
Company Monitor 60
Socar 60
BP Azerbaijan 64
Statoil 69
Lukoil Azerbaijan 71
Azpetrol 73
ExxonMobil – Summary 75
Devon Energy – Summary 75
Eni – Summary 75
Inpex – Summary 75
Chevron – Summary 76
Itochu/Delta Hess – Summary 76
TPAO – Summary 76
Total – Summary 76
ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) – Summary 77
Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC) – Summary 77
GDF Suez – Summary 77
RWE Dea – Summary 78
Others – Summary 78
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts 79
Regional Oil Demand 79
Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d) 79
Regional Oil Supply 80
Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d) 80
Regional Refining Capacity 81
Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 81
Regional Gas Demand 82
Table: CEE Gas Consumption (bcm) 82
Regional Gas Supply 83
Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm) 83
Azerbaijan Country Overview 84
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 84
Glossary Of Terms 85
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology 86
Introduction 86
Ratings Overview 86
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure 87
Indicators 88
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology 88
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology 89
BMI Methodology 91
How we generate our industry forecasts 91
Energy Industry 92
Cross Checks 92
Sources 92
List of Table
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) . 13
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d). 14
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010 . 16
Table: Oil Price Forecasts . 16
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) . 18
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d) . 19
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) . 20
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) . 21
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm) . 22
Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) . 23
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating . 25
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating. 26
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating . 28
Table: Azerbaijan Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts . 40
Table: Azerbaijan Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts. 41
Table: Refineries in Azerbaijan . 43
Table: Azerbaijan - Economic Activity . 52
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies . 54
Table: Key Upstream Players . 59
Table: Key Downstream Players . 59
Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d) . 79
Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d) . 80
Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) . 81
Table: CEE Gas Consumption (bcm) . 82
Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm) . 83
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure . 87
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology . 88
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology . 89