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Japan Food and Drink Report Q2 2010

Published : March 2010
No. of Pages : 82

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While the Japanese economy is showing some signs of recovery following the global economic downturn, BMI is forecasting that this recovery will be long, drawn out and erratic. This news and its impact on consumer confidence, coupled with the fact that the Japanese food, drink and retail sectors are all at an advanced stage of maturity, have resulted in many of the country’s food and beverage producers, as well as its retailers, announcing further international expansion plans this quarter as they struggle with falling sales and profits, as discussed in BMI’s recently published Japan Food & Drink Report for Q210. Japanese brewers have continued to seek geographical diversification as they attempt to reduce their dependence on the country’s stagnant beer market. As such, brewing major Asahi announced that it is to enter into a distribution deal with Danish major Carlsberg in Hong Kong, which should see its Hong Kong sales lift from 180,000 cases in 2008 to 350,000 cases by 2014. Meanwhile, Japanese brewer Sapporo acquired a 65% stake in Carlsberg and Vietnam National Tobacco Corporation 50:50 joint venture (JV) Kronenbourg Vietnam. However, despite volume sales of beer forecast to fall 14.4% to 2014, the sector is still appealing and in February South Korean Hite Brewery entered into a deal with Japan-based foodstuff company Kawasho Foods to enhance its product sales in Japan.
Elsewhere, the country’s retail sector is suffering the effects of the economic downturn. This quarter saw a number of the country’s leading retailers announce poor results for the first nine months of the fiscal year. Industry giants Seven & I Holdings and AEON posted revenue contractions of 11.8% to JPY8.32trn (US$41.3bn) and 3.9% to JPY3.73trn (US$40.4bn) respectively for the period. Seven & I also announced that it would consider downsizing in order to achieve it target of profit growth in FY2011. However, while these results have not been helped by the economic situation, the industry has been struggling for some time as a result of stagnant wage growth and an ageing population, which have forced retailers to turn to international expansion. To this end, in December 2009, Japanese retail major Lawson Inc confirmed plans to increase its Chinese store network tenfold over the next five to 10 years in order to secure 10% market share in the Chinese convenience retail sector. With value sales through mass grocery retail (MGR) outlets expected to increase by an impressive 67.9% to 2014 in China, compared with an increase of just 1.3% in Japan over the same period, this move would appear well founded. As industry activity this quarter demonstrates, the environment for Japan’s food, drink and retail sectors is likely to remain tough and international expansion is likely to increase in the long term as companies seek to grow sales.

SWOT Analysis

Japan Food SWOT

Japan Drink SWOT

Japan Mass Grocery Retail SWOT

Business Environment

BMI’s Core Global Industry Views

Table: BMI’s Core Views For The Food & Drink Industry

Asia Pacific Food And Drink Business Environment Ratings

Table: Regional Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings Q2 2010

Japan’s Food And Drink Business Environment Rating

Macroeconomic Outlook

Japan - Economic Activity

Food

Industry Forecast Scenario

Food Consumption

Table: Japan Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts

Confectionery

Table: Japan Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts

Canned Food

Table: Japan Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts

Trade

Table: Japan Food & Drink Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts

Industry Developments

Market Overview

Food Consumption

Confectionery

Functional Food

Canned Food

Frozen Food

Trade

Agriculture

Drink

Industry Forecast Scenario

Alcoholic Drinks

Table: Japan Alcoholic Beverage Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts

Hot Drinks

Table: Japan Hot Beverage Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts

Soft Drinks

Table: Japan Soft Drink Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts

Industry Developments

Market Overview

Alcoholic Drinks

Beer

Wine

Hot Drinks

Soft Drinks

Table: Soft Drinks Sales Breakdown In Japan

Functional Drinks

Mass Grocery Retail

Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Japan Mass Grocery Retail Indicators - Sales Value by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts

Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts

Industry Developments

Market Overview

Leading MGR Players

Table: Structure Of Japan’s Mass Grocery Retail Market - Estimated Number Of Outlets

Table: Structure Of Japan’s Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales By Format (US$bn)

Table: Structure Of Japan’s Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales By Format (JPYbn)

Table: Average Annual Sales Per Outlet By Format (2008)

Competitive Landscape

Key Players - Food And Drink

Table: Key Players In Japan’s Food & Drink Sector (2009)

Key Players - Mass Grocery Retail

Table: Key Players In Japan’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector

Company Analysis

Food

Ajinomoto

Drink

Asahi Breweries Ltd

Kirin

Mass Grocery Retail

Seven & I Holdings

Lawson Inc

AEON

Seiyu

Appendix

Country Snapshot: Japan Demographic Data

Section 1: Population

Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030

Section 2: Education And Healthcare

Table: Education, 2002-2005

Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006

Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)

Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012

BMI Food & Drink Methodology

Food And Drink Business Environment Ratings

Ratings Methodology

Ratings Overview

Indicators

Table: Limits Of Potential Returns

Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns

Weighting

BMI Food and Drink Industry Glossary

Food And Drink

Mass Grocery Retail

BMI Food & Drink Forecasting And Sourcing

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Sourcing

Japan Food and Drink Report Q2 2010

Published By: Business Monitor International

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