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Uganda Telecommunications Report Q4 2012

BMI View: The Ugandan market is below the Sub-Saharan average in terms of penetration and ARPUs.
This is an indication of the low GDP per Capita, and larger rural population, many of which do not have
access to mobile services. The market has considerable potential for growth, but the reversal in penetration
rate in Q112 shows that it is struggling to fulfil this potential. In terms of economy, the country''s current
account deficit is over 10% of GDP, although this is still lower than we previously estimated. We see
potential for growth in the market, as the oil industry spurs larger increases in investment and exports in
the longer term.
Key Data
? New operator data revealed the market finished Q112 with 16.25mn mobile subscribers. MTN continues
to lead the market with 47.5% market share
? New data from the UCC reveals there were 464,850 fixed lines in the country at the end of December
2011.This was a 144,000 increase on the end of Q311, which ended with 321,000 lines in service.
? The number of fixed internet subscribers rose to 88,786 by December 2011, while mobile internet
subscribers stood at 977,500. Internet users rose to 4.8mn, up from 4mn at the end of 2010.
Risk/Reward Ratings
Uganda remained unchanged in BMI''s Q412 RRRs, in 15th position, with no change to overall score for
another quarter. The market is located in the middle of our table, despite the low penetration and enjoys
healthy competitive environment. The market has low ARPUs, and given the weak economic outlook, BMI
does not believe Uganda improve its position markedly in the short to medium term.
Key Trends & Developments
? Uganda''s electricity provider Umeme has introduced mobile money payments in conjunction with realtime
bank reconciliations. The service will enable subscribers to avoid disconnections that are caused due
to delayed payment reconciliations.
? Ugandan mobile operator Warid Telecom has won a tax dispute against the Uganda Revenue Authority
(URA). Under the dispute, the URA had asked Warid Telecom to pay UGX3.4bn (US$0.001bn) in tax
and penalties on services imported by the operator.
? Uganda''s telecoms regulator the Uganda Communication Commission (UCC) has slashed
interconnections rates between mobile operators from the current UGX131 (US$0.0521) to UGX112 (US
$0.044), with effect from June 1.
Uganda Telecommunications Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Page 7
? Ugandan subsidiary of South African telecoms group MTN revealed that its staff had stolen UGX9bn
(US$3.5mn) by plotting to exploit a loophole in its mobile banking service. MTN subscribers did not lose
any funds during the fraud, which occurred during a software upgrade
? Ugandan government has handed back the majority stake in Uganda-based telecoms operator Uganda
Telecom Limited (UTL) to Libyan firm LAP Green Network. The government had seized the 69% stake
in early 2011 as part of sanctions imposed on former Libyan leader Muammar al-Qadhafi. Meanwhile,
LAP Green has stated that the shareholders and directors of its wholly owned subsidiary UCOM have
resumed their management control responsibilities of UTL.
Uganda Telecommunications Report Q4 2012
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Uganda Telecommunications Report Q4 2012
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