Cameroon Autos Report Q4 2012

We keep our forecasts for new vehicle sales growth in Cameroon unchanged for now. BMI''s forecast for an acceleration of GDP growth, from an estimated 3.7% in 2011 to 4.3% in 2012 and 5.0% in 2013 is positive for the future of consumption-led industries such as autos. We expect annual real GDP growth to average 4.2% between 2011 and 2016, with the peak of growth coming in 2013, when we expect growth of 5.5%, up from our previous projection of 5.0%. This will be fuelled by new oil production boosting exports. However, the lingering downside risk is the rife income inequality, as the non-oil sector has not grown sufficiently to tackle poverty for the majority of average consumers.
Last quarter we revised up our estimates for new vehicle sales in 2011 after the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa released data showing that Cameroon was the country''s fourth-largest export market during the year. Imports of South African-built vehicles have risen from just 50 units in 2009 to 3,330 units in 2011. This had a knock-on effect for our volume forecasts for the remainder of the five-year period to 2016.
Investment in the mining sector looks set to be one of the best-generators of vehicle demand in the near future. Foreign investment, particularly from the mining sector, has prompted the government to invest in road development, including a new highway linking the country with Nigeria. However, BMI''s Infrastructure team points out that even where public financing has not been forthcoming, miners have invested in infrastructure development themselves. This is most evident with the example of the Mbalam Iron Ore project Freight Railway and Deep Sea Port in Cameroon. This is a project developed by Sundance Resources, the largest foreign investor in Cameroon''s mines, which needs infrastructure to export output from the eastern mines to the port.
A marked uptick in infrastructure spending (with the government increasingly turning to China in its development efforts), and construction projects in particular, shows potential not just for commercial vehicles demand, which often correlates with infrastructure investment, but also for the improvement of the country''s roads to accommodate increased vehicle use. Road transport accounts for around 70% of the country''s transport network but is severely constrained by the poor state of the roads.
Further encouraging news came in July 2012 that China First Highway Engineering Company has been awarded a contract to build a motorway between Douala and Yaounde in China. The six-lane motorway will reduce the distance travelled between the two cities from 265km to 215km. It also aims to foster trade within the central African region, particularly within Cameroon, the Central African Republic and Chad.