Brazil Autos Report Q4 2012

Published : August 2012
No. of Pages : 74

Price:

A 24.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in passenger car sales and 0.3% y-o-y rise in Brazilian passenger car sales in H112 falls in line with BMI’s long-held view that despite weakness in domestic demand in the beginning of the year, the market is poised for a 3.4% y-o-y increase in 2012. Further boost to this outlook will come from the stimulus package announced by the government in May 2012, which calls for reductions in taxes on vehicles, improved credit for car purchases and provision of subsidised funding to companies that invest in equipment.
However, our outlook for vehicle production has turned more pessimistic owing to a 9.4% y-o-y drop in production in the first six months of 2012, which came despite the existence of a large suite of government policies designed to boost the sector. We now expect over a 5% drop in vehicle production this year.
German firm Daimler ordered a mandatory nine-day furlough (temporary unpaid leave) in April for workers at its Mercedes-Benz truck factory. Ford Motor and Volkswagen (VW) are slowing their assembly lines, as stockpiles of unsold vehicles mount.
Over the longer term, however, we maintain our bullish outlook for the sector, predicated on government policy bearing fruit, a resurgence in domestic sales and the potential for Brazil to become a regional production hub.
In July VW announced plans to increase production in Brazil until 2016. It plans to invest BRL1bn (US$500mn) in its Taubaté facility near São Paulo and in the less developed state of Pernambuco. The investment aims to increase production from 1,000 units to 1,900 units a day by 2014. It comes on top of the planned BRL8.7bn (US$4.3bn) investment for 2012-2016. Meanwhile, British luxury brand Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) is reportedly negotiating with Brazilian authorities to establish a facility that will assemble its Freelander sports utility vehicle, in a move which supports BMI’s view of robust growth in premium vehicle demand.
On the downside, the ethanol industry in Brazil is facing a crisis owing government policies to reduce gasoline and diesel prices for domestic consumers. On June 25, Petroleo Brasileiro, Brazil''s statecontrolled oil company, raised gasoline prices 7.8% and diesel prices 3.9%. Following this, the government announced it would remove the CIDE tax on fuel to prevent a price increase for consumers.
However, BMI believes that without domestic consumers facing higher gasoline and petrol prices at the pump, ethanol producers will struggle and the popularity of the alternative fuel technology will be unable to abate its decline.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Brazil Autos Industry SWOT .. 6
Brazil Political SWOT 7
Brazil Economic SWOT . 8
Brazil Business Environment SWOT .. 9
Table: Passenger Car Sales H112 ... 10
Regional Overview . 14
Regional Production Rivals . 14
Exports . 16
Supply Chain 17
Domestic Sales . 18
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings .. 19
Table: BMI Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos Industry In Americas .. 22
Macroeconomic Forecast . 23
Downgrading Growth, Story Remains The Same .. 23
Table: Brazil – Economic Activity 25
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 26
Sales . 26
Table: Brazil Autos Sales By Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts . 26
Production ... 27
Table: Brazil Autos Production By Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts 28
Trade 29
Table: Brazil Autos Trade – Historical Data And Forecasts ... 29
Economic Contribution 32
Table: Brazil Autos Economic Contribution 32
Industry News .. 32
Passenger Cars .. 35
Table: Brazil Passenger Car Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts . 35
Table: Brazil – Passenger Car Sales 2010-2011 . 36
New Investments ... 38
Growth In Alternative Fuels. 40
Company News . 40
Commercial Vehicles . 43
Table: Brazil Commercial Vehicle Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts 43
Segment Trends 44
New Investments .. 47
Alternative Fuel Segment . 50
Key Players .. 52
Table: Brazil – Light Commercial Vehicle Sales.. 52
Table: Brazil – Heavy Commercial Vehicle Sales 53
Buses And Coaches ... 54
Table: Brazil – Bus Sales (Units), 2009-2011 .. 54
Motorcycles 55
Table: Brazil Commercial Vehicle Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts 55
Segment Overview 55
Company News . 56
Table: Brazil Motorcycle Production (Units), 2010-2011 57
Table: Brazil Motorcycle Market (Units), 2010-2011 .. 58
Segment Developments . 58
Suppliers 60
Table: Brazil Automotive Parts Segment – Leading Names . 61
Investments ... 62
Segment Developments . 63
Company Monitor .. 65
Table: VW Regional Sales And Market Share .. 66
Company Profiles .. 67
General Motors Company (GM) .. 67
Fiat .. 69
Volkswagen (VW) . 70
Honda Motor ... 71
BMI Methodology ... 72
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 72
Sources 73Table: Passenger Car Sales H112 . 10

Table: BMI Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos Industry In Americas . 22

Table: Brazil – Economic Activity. 25

Table: Brazil Autos Sales By Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts . 26

Table: Brazil Autos Production By Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts . 28

Table: Brazil Autos Trade – Historical Data And Forecasts . 29

Table: Brazil Autos Economic Contribution . 32

Table: Brazil Passenger Car Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts . 35

Table: Brazil – Passenger Car Sales 2010-2011 . 36

Table: Brazil Commercial Vehicle Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts . 43

Table: Brazil – Light Commercial Vehicle Sales. 52

Table: Brazil – Heavy Commercial Vehicle Sales . 53

Table: Brazil – Bus Sales (Units), 2009-2011 . 54

Table: Brazil Commercial Vehicle Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts . 55

Table: Brazil Motorcycle Production (Units), 2010-2011 . 57

Table: Brazil Motorcycle Market (Units), 2010-2011 . 58

Table: Brazil Automotive Parts Segment – Leading Names . 61

Table: VW Regional Sales And Market Share . 66

Brazil Autos Report Q4 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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