Singapore Retail Report Q4 2012

Published : August 2012
No. of Pages : 73

Price:

The Singapore Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags
short-term concerns about the impact on Singapore’s economic outlook of falling house prices.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Singapore retail market while minimising
investment risk, and also explores the impact of a hard landing in China as well as ongoing eurozone
woes on the Singapore consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the
short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading
players in the Singapore retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the
local market.
Singapore comes sixth (out of seven) in BMI’s Asia Retail risk/reward ratings, although it outperforms
significantly for risk.
Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth
terms, with sales forecast to increase by 25.9% between 2012 and 2016, from US$4.18bn to US$5.26bn
as demand grows for higher-end product categories such as smartphones, HD TV sets, Blu-ray DVD
players and entertainment notebooks.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in government initiatives that should put the
semiconductor and electronics industries on a long-term path to renewed viability.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
􀂃 BMI retains its full-year growth outlook of 2.6% for Singapore. Although the country allayed
fears of a sharp slowdown in Q112, posting above-consensus 9.9% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q)
growth, year-on-year (y-o-y) growth was considerably more muted at 1.6%. While we
acknowledge that Q112''s 9.9% q-o-q print indicates that the economy does retain some
momentum and will now avoid a technical recession, we point to the 1.6% y-o-y figure to
underscore the point that a longer-term slowdown is still in progress.
􀂃 BMI expects private consumption to continue to support the overall economy with a 5.3%
expansion in 2012 as real wages get a boost and inflation moderates. However, we believe that
the property sector is at a major inflection point where a negative wealth effect will begin to set
in, putting a damper on consumer sentiment in a country where 87% of Singaporeans own their
Singapore Retail Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6
homes. Nevertheless, we forecast that private consumption will grow from its current 38.6%
proportion of the economy to 48.1% by 2021.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 7
Singapore Retail Business Environment SWOT 7
Singapore Political SWOT 8
Singapore Economic SWOT 9
Market Overview 10
Key Players . 13
Current Trends. 14
Industry Forecast Scenario 16
Consumer Outlook 16
Retail Growth Outlook . 20
Table: Singapore’s Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016 20
Table: Singapore’s Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2012f 22
Macroeconomic Outlook . 23
Table: Singapore - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 25
Regional Retail Outlook 26
Asia Pacific Retail Outlook 26
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn) 26
Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (%) 27
Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption, 2009-2016 (US$bn) 29
Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook, 2009-2016. 34
Risk/Reward Ratings 35
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings 35
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Risk/Reward Ratings 35
Singapore’s Retail Rating . 36
Limits Of Potential Returns 36
Risks To Realisation Of Returns . 36
Mass Grocery Retail . 38
Singapore Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 38
Market Overview 39
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets 40
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value (US$bn) 40
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value (SGDbn) . 41
Table: Estimated Average Sales Per Outlet By Format, 2011 41
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts 41
Industry Forecast 41
Table: Singapore Mass Grocery Retail Indicators (US$bn) - Historical Data & Forecasts By Format, 2009-2016 43
Industry Developments. 43
Consumer Electronics 47
Singapore Consumer Electronics Market SWOT . 47
Singapore Electronics Industry SWOT 48
Singapore Retail Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Market Overview 49
Computers 49
Table: Computers: Demand, 2009-2016 49
AV 52
Table: AV: Demand, 2009-2016 . 52
Handsets 55
Table: Mobile Handsets: Demand, 2009-2015 56
Government Authority 58
Industry Forecast 58
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016 . 59
Industry Developments. 60
Automotives 62
Singapore Automotives SWOT 62
Competitive Landscape 63
Table: Singapore – Top 20 New Vehicle Registrations By Company, 4M12 . 63
Industry Forecast 64
Table: Registered Vehicles – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016 (CBUs). 65
Industry Developments. 66
Demographic Data 67
Table: Singapore''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) 68
Table: Singapore''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 69
Table: Singapore''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 70
Table: Singapore''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 70
BMI Methodology . 71
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 71
Sources 72Table: Singapore’s Retail Sales Indicators
Table: Singapore’s Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment f
Table: Singapore Economic Activity
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales (US$bn)
Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales (%)
Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption (US$bn)
Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value (US$bn)
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value (SGDbn)
Table: Estimated Average Sales Per Outlet By Format
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Singapore Mass Grocery Retail Indicators (US$bn) Historical Data & Forecasts By Format
Table: Computers: Demand
Table: AV: Demand
Table: Mobile Handsets: Demand
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview
Table: Singapore – Top New Vehicle Registrations By Company M
Table: Registered Vehicles – Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs)
Table: Singapore''s Population By Age Group ('')
Table: Singapore''s Population By Age Group (% of total)
Table: Singapore''s Key Population Ratios
Table: Singapore''s Rural And Urban Population

Singapore Retail Report Q4 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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