Poland Power Report Q4 2012

Published : August 2012
No. of Pages : 54

Price:

BMI View: Our latest Poland power report, which now excludes a breakdown of electricity generated
from non-hydro renewable sources, shows that coal will continue to play a central role in Poland’s
energy mix. With several projects in the pipeline, including plans for two 900MW power stations in
Opole, a 900MW plant in southern Poland and fertiliser producer Pulawy’s plans to launch a tender for
a gas- or coal-fired power station in Q312, fossil fuels will continue to meet the large majority of
Poland’s energy requirements. This strategy has produced a mixed reaction from the EC: while it
approved Poland’s request to continue receiving free carbon emissions allowances in July 2012, the EC
will not allow Poland to use these allowances to build new power plants.
In our revised quarterly power report, which now excludes a breakdown of energy generated by nonhydro
renewable projects, BMI calculates that energy generation in Poland stood at 142.8 terawatt hours
(TWh) in 2011, and forecasts that it will grow by just 0.2% in 2012 to 143.1TWh. A stable population,
the economic crisis facing the eurozone and improved energy efficiency measures will keep energy
generation growth to a minimum. BMI forecasts average annual growth of 2.0% between 2012 and 2021.
While Poland’s potential reserves of shale gas have sparked international investment – in July 2012, five
Polish firms signed an agreement to collaboration on shale gas exploration and extraction – coal will
continue to be the source of the majority of energy generation in the country. BMI forecasts that natural
gas energy generation will post an average annual growth rate of 14.1% between 2012 and 2021, with
much of this growth to stem from the 900 megawatt (MW) gas-fired power plant in Grudziadz. Poland
also has nuclear ambitions, with a 3GW nuclear power plant planned for 2020, at the earliest.
The key developments in Poland’s power sector are:
􀂃 A consortium headed by Polish company Polimex-Mostostal and Japan’s Hitachi Power secured
a contract for the construction of a coal-fired unit in Poland in May 2012.
􀂃 Pulawy, a Polish producer of fertiliser, announced plans to launch a tender in Q312 for the
construction of an 840MW thermal power plant; Pulawy holds a 50% share in the venture, with
utility PGE holding the remaining 50%.
􀂃 State-controlled utility Tauron and state-run mining firm KGHM Polska Miedz revealed they
will take a minority stake in the construction of Poland’s first nuclear power plant, which will be
run by PGE. In June 2012, PGE delayed the launch of the tender for the supply of technology for
the power plant due to financial concerns

BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Poland Power SWOT 6
Regional Overview . 7
Industry Forecast Scenario 10
Poland Macroeconomic Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Poland Forecast Scenario . 10
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity 10
Table: Poland Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016 . 10
Table: Poland Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2015 -2021 12
Table: Poland Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016. 14
Table: Poland Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021 . 15
Electricity Consumption 20
Table: Poland Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016 . 20
Table: Poland Total Electricity Consumption Long Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021 . 20
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports 21
Table: Poland Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016 . 21
Table: Poland Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021 22
Table: Poland Trade Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016. 22
Table: Poland Trade Long Term Forecasts, 2015 -2021 22
Key Policies/Market Structure 24
Regulation And Competition 24
Sustainable Energy Policies . 25
Pricing 26
Table: Electricity Prices In the EU Member States, As Of November 2011 26
Key Projects Database . 28
Table: Major Projects – Power Plants & transmission grids. 28
Power Risk/Reward Ratings . 32
Central and Eastern Europe Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings . 32
Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) . 35
Poland Power Risk/Reward Ratings 35
Rewards . 36
Risks 36
Competitive Landscape 37
Tauron 38
PGE/PSE . 39
PKE 39
ENEA 39
Energa 40
RWE/STOEN 40
Poland Power Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Vattenfall . 40
Electrabel. 41
Company Profiles 42
Polska Grupa Energetyczna (PGE) 42
Glossary of Terms . 46
Table: Glossary of Terms 46
Methodology And Sources 47
Industry Forecasts 47
Power Industry - Data Methodology . 48
Generation and Consumption Data 48
Electricity Generation Capacity Data . 49
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology . 49
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 51
Sources 53Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Table: Poland Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts
Table: Poland Total Electricity Generation LongTerm Forecasts
Table: Poland Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts
Table: Poland Electricity Generating Capacity LongTerm Forecasts
Table: Poland Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts
Table: Poland Total Electricity Consumption Long Term Forecasts
Table: Poland Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts
Table: Poland Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses LongTerm Forecasts
Table: Poland Trade Data And Forecasts
Table: Poland Trade Long Term Forecasts
Table: Electricity Prices In the EU Member States As Of November
Table: Major Projects – Power Plants & transmission grids
Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of )
Table: Glossary of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators

Poland Power Report Q4 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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