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Malaysia Food and Drink Report Q4 2012

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No. of Pages : 95
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We are relatively optimistic about the near-term domestic demand conditions in Malaysia. Cash handouts
targeted at around 5.2mn lower-income households should help support private consumption,
particularly in the mass-market segment. Moderating price pressures and scope for monetary loosening
from the Malaysian government should also provide a boost to demand conditions in the country.
Therefore, we believe domestic demand in Malaysia is likely to outperform the broader economy for the
foreseeable future. However, we acknowledge intensifying global headwinds and a property price
correction as major downside risks to our private consumption outlook for Malaysia.
Headline Industry Data
􀂃 2012 food consumption = +2.3%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecast to 2016 =
+2.9%
􀂃 2012 soft drinks value sales = +4.7%; CAGR forecast to 2016 = +5.0%
􀂃 2012 alcoholic drinks value sales = +3.3%; CAGR forecast to 2016 = +4.6%
􀂃 2012 mass grocery retail sales = +6.9%; CAGR forecast to 2016 = +8.2%
Key Industry Trends
BMI Confident About Dutch Lady Milk''s FY2012 Earnings Prospects: In April 2012, Malaysia-based
beverage firm Dutch Lady Milk Industries reported strong growth in both revenue and earnings for the
year ending December 2011. More noteworthy is the company''s improvement in its operating margins,
which is a remarkable showing given the backdrop of an inflationary environment in FY2011. Given its
strong pricing power and ability to generate cost efficiencies, we continue to see reasons to be optimistic
about Dutch Lady''s FY2012 earnings prospects.
Aeon Could Look To Discount Retailing And Fresh Foods For Untapped Opportunities: International
expansion has long been a strategic priority for Japanese retailer Aeon. Aeon is accelerating its
expansions across emerging markets such as Vietnam as it struggles to contend with subdued domestic
demand conditions. While Malaysia''s long-term retail prospects do not compare as favourably to
Vietnam, it is nonetheless an important growth market for Aeon, and Aeon Malaysia should benefit from
its parent company''s expansionary ambitions. As the Malaysian mass grocery retail (MGR) market edges
towards maturity and greater consolidation, the sub-sectors of fresh food produce, private labels and
discount retailing should provide enticing growth opportunities for Aeon in the longer term.
Malaysia Food & Drink Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 7
Risks To Outlook
Headwinds in the US and eurozone remain the key risks to our outlook on the Malaysian economy.
Should developments in these regions turn out to be more severe than expected, we could see a continued
deterioration in external demand, which could become a further drag on Malaysia’s economic growth.
This scenario could dampen consumer sentiment, in turn weighing on domestic demand growth.

BMI Industry View 6
SWOT Analysis 8
Malaysia Food Industry SWOT 8
Malaysia Drinks Industry SWOT 9
Malaysia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT . 10
Business Environment . 11
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views 11
Table: Core Views 19
Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings 20
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings, Q412 (score out of 10) 20
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings, Q412 24
Malaysia’s Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings 25
Macroeconomic Outlook . 26
Industry Forecast Scenario 30
Consumer Outlook 30
Food 33
Food Consumption 33
Table: Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2016 34
Confectionery . 35
Table: Confectionery Sales, 2010-2016 35
Trade . 36
Table: Trade Of Food, Drink And Tobacco, 2010–2016 37
Drink . 38
Hot Drinks 38
Table: Tea And Coffee Sales, 2010-2016 . 39
Alcoholic Drinks 40
Table: Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2010-2016 41
Soft Drinks 42
Table: Soft Drink Sales, 2010-2016 43
Mass Grocery Retail 44
Table: MGR Sales By Format, 2010-2016 . 46
Food . 48
Key Industry Trends And Developments 48
Malaysia A Key Component Of Multinationals’ Arsenal 48
Yum!’s Divestment Should Prove Supportive Of International Ambitions 49
Building Upon Superiority In Halal Food 49
Market Overview . 50
Food Production 50
Confectionery . 51
Halal . 51
Agriculture 52
Dairy . 52
Drink . 54
Key Industry Trends And Developments 54
A Cloudy Revenue Outlook For YHS In 2012 . 54
Malaysia Food & Drink Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
BMI Confident About Dutch Lady Milk''s FY2012 Earnings Prospects 56
Malaysia Catching The Sights Of Regional Players 57
Diversification A Growing Trend Among Cognac Producers . 59
Sharpening Profitability Coming Into Greater Focus 59
Market Overview . 60
Soft Drinks 60
Hot Drinks 60
Alcoholic Drinks 61
Mass Grocery Retail 62
Key Industry Trends And Developments 62
Aeon Could Look To Discount Retailing And Fresh Foods For Untapped Opportunities. 62
Malaysia: A Stepping Stone To Regional Ambitions 64
Dairy Farm To Reap Strong Rewards From Its Regional Diversity 65
Tesco Leapfrogs Carrefour In South East Asian Battle 66
Market Overview . 67
Table: Structure Of Malaysia’s MGR Market – Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2005-2011 . 68
Table: Structure Of Malaysia’s MGR Market – Sales By Format, 2005-2011 (US$bn) 69
Table: Structure Of Malaysia’s MGR Market – Sales By Format, 2005-2011 (MYRbn) . 69
Table: Average Sales Per Outlet by Forma, 2011 69
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Type, 2012 And 2021 (%) . 69
Competitive Landscape 70
Key Players . 70
Table; Key Players In Malaysia’s Food & Drink Sector 70
Table: Key Players In Malaysia’s MGR Sector . 71
Company Monitor 72
Food 72
Dutch Lady . 72
Yeo Hiap Seng (Malaysia) 74
Drink . 77
Permanis 77
F&N Berhad 79
Mass Grocery Retail 81
Dairy Farm . 81
Tesco Malaysia 83
Carrefour . 85
AEON Malaysia . 87
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology . 89
Table: Rewards 89
Table: Risks 90
Weighting . 90
Table: Weighting 90
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary 91
Food & Drink 91
Mass Grocery Retail 91
Malaysia Food & Drink Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 5
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing 93
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 93
Sourcing . 94Table: Core Views
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward SubFactor Ratings Q (score out of )
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q
Table: Food Consumption Indicators
Table: Confectionery Sales
Table: Trade Of Food Drink And Tobacco –
Table: Tea And Coffee Sales
Table: Alcoholic Drink Sales
Table: Soft Drink Sales
Table: MGR Sales By Format
Table: Structure Of Malaysia’s MGR Market – Estimated Number Of Outlets
Table: Structure Of Malaysia’s MGR Market – Sales By Format (US$bn)
Table: Structure Of Malaysia’s MGR Market – Sales By Format (MYRbn)
Table: Average Sales Per Outlet by Forma
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Type And (%)
Table; Key Players In Malaysia’s Food & Drink Sector
Table: Key Players In Malaysia’s MGR Sector
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Table: Weighting

Malaysia Food and Drink Report Q4 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International
 

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