Kenya Power Report Q4 2012

Published : August 2012
No. of Pages : 54

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BMI View: BMI’s power service focuses chiefly on thermal sources, hydropower and nuclear electricity,
while developments pertinent to the green segment are discussed in depth in our renewables service.
Kenya’s power sector continues to diversify its energy generation capability. Although hydropower
generation remains vulnerable to drought and variations in rainfall, additional hydro facilities are being
developed in order to reduce the country’s dependence on costly oil-fired capacity. Over the longer term,
non-hydrorenewables are to play a much bigger role in the country’s energy mix. Most notably, we see
geothermal as the favoured form of renewable energy, as its potential is considerable. Coal-based
generating schemes are to provide electricity supply over the medium term.
BMI anticipates that Kenya’s overall power generation will grow by an annual average of 8.7% between
2012 to 2021, to reach 16.7TWh. Driving this growth will be a 23.6% annual average increase in nonhydropower
renewables. Thermal and hydropower power generation are expected to decline by an annual
average of 1.92% and 1.76% respectively over the period. Oil-fired generation is expected to fall by an
annual average of 9.2% as hydro increases in availability. We expect coal-fired power to become
commercially available from 2015 and beyond.
The key trends and developments in the country’s power sector are:
􀂃 The World Bank has approved a US$684mn loan for Kenya and Ethiopia. The loan will be used
to build a cross border power line. This is the first phase of a US$1.3bn project that covers the
development of a regional power grid in East Africa.
􀂃 Kenya and Ethiopia have concluded a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA), under which Kenya
will import up to 400 megawatts (MW) annually from Ethiopia. The agreement is part of a series
of arrangements – including a special status trade pact – aimed at strengthening the socioeconomic
ties between the two countries and appears to be underpinned mainly by political
motivations. With both countries heavily reliant on hydropower and lacking sufficient capacity
to cater for the needs of their populations, Ethiopian imports are unlikely to make a significant
difference in times of need.
􀂃 Due to the expected rise in net energy generation over the next few years, Kenya’s power supply
shortfall will eventually ease, with the potential to give the country a net export capability. A
gradual decline in the percentage of transmission and distribution losses from an estimated
16.3% in 2011 will help balance the market.

BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Kenya Power SWOT . 6
Regional Industry Overview 7
Table: Top 5 infrastructure projects globally in 2011 9
Industry Forecast Scenario 12
Kenya Macroeconomic Snapshot 12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data 12
Table Country Snapshot: Power Sector 12
Kenya Industry Forecasts . 12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 12
Table: Kenya Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016 . 12
Table: Kenya Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021 14
Table: Kenya Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016 15
Table: Kenya Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021 16
Electricity Consumption 20
Table: Kenya Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016 20
Table: Kenya Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021 20
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 22
Table: Kenya Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016. 22
Table: Kenya Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021 22
Table: Kenya Trade Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016 23
Table: Kenya Trade Long Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021 23
Key Policies/Market Structure 26
Key Projects Database . 32
Table: Major Projects - Power Plants & Transmission Grids 32
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings 34
MEA Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings . 34
Table: MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) . 38
Kenya’s Power Risk/Reward Ratings 39
Rewards . 39
Risks 39
Competitive Landscape/Company Monitor 40
Table: Main Utilities In East Africa 42
Table: Main Utilities In Southern Africa (ex. South africa) 44
Glossary of Terms . 46
Table: Glossary of Terms 46
Methodology And Sources 47
Industry Forecasts 47
Power Industry - Data Methodology . 48
Generation and Consumption Data 48
Electricity Generation Capacity Data . 49
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology . 49
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 51
Kenya Power Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Sources 53Table: Top infrastructure projects globally in
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
Table Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Table: Kenya Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts
Table: Kenya Total Electricity Generation LongTerm Forecasts
Table: Kenya Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts
Table: Kenya Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts
Table: Kenya Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts
Table: Kenya Total Electricity Consumption LongTerm Forecasts
Table: Kenya Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts
Table: Kenya Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses LongTerm Forecasts
Table: Kenya Trade Data And Forecasts
Table: Kenya Trade Long Term Forecasts
Table: Major Projects Power Plants & Transmission Grids
Table: MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of )
Table: Main Utilities In East Africa
Table: Main Utilities In Southern Africa (ex South africa)
Table: Glossary of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators

Kenya Power Report Q4 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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