Indonesia Infrastructure Report Q4 2012

Published : August 2012
No. of Pages : 122

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BMI View: We are maintaining our 6.9% growth forecast for Indonesia''s construction sector in 2012.
Although construction activity in Q112 was a strong 7.8% year-on-year (y-o-y), the reversal in conducive
monetary conditions for construction activity and the poor outlook for the global economy will dampen
construction activity over the rest of 2012. In addition, we see a real risk that the construction sector fails
to realise its long-term growth potential, as there is a growing lack of political will to carry out the
regulatory reforms required to unlock private sector investment demand. Taking this into account, we
have revised down construction real growth to 7.7% (from a previous forecast of 8.2%) per annum
between 2012 and 2021.
The key factors that will facilitate growth are:
􀂃 In June 2012, Malaysia''s state-owned electricity utility Tenaga Nasional (TNB) signed a
memorandum of understanding (MoU) with two Indonesian state-owned companies - utility PLN
and coal miner Bukit Asam - to develop the necessary infrastructure to sell electricity from
Sumatra to Peninsular Malaysia. Under the MoU, the three companies will develop Bukit Asam''s
mining sites in Peranap, construct a 1,200MW coal-fired power plant near the mining sites in
Peranap and a 275kV subsea cable transmission line connecting Sumatra and Peninsular
Malaysia. The three companies are developing feasibility studies for the three projects.
􀂃 In June 2012, it was announced that Indonesia''s transportation ministry is planning to build and
relocate 45 airports by 2022 in order to support the rapid development of the country''s aviation
industry, said the director general of air transportation at the transportation ministry, Herry Bakti
S. Gumay. The project’s first phase will see the construction of 24 new airports by 2017, with
the rest to be ready by 2022. The first phase was initiated in 2011 and the construction of eight
airports is already on track. At least IDR200bn (US$21.2mn) is needed to construct one airport,
and the transportation ministry has allocated IDR3trn (US$318mn) for infrastructure
construction over 2012.
􀂃 In July 2012, the Indonesian central government decided to finance the feasibility study for the
US$13.9bn Sunda Strait bridge project - a 31km road and railway bridge that connects the two
most populous islands in Indonesia, Java and Sumatra. The government had decided to carry out
the feasibility because the consortium in charge of the project, Graha Banten Lampung
Sejahtera, chose not to carry out the feasibility study after completing a US$60mn prefeasibility
study in 2010. The feasibility study carried out by the government will cover
construction, funding, legal issues, land availability and developments plans for the areas
surrounding the bridge. The study is at the preparation stage, with the project scheduled to enter
the construction phase in 2014 and be operational by 2025.

BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis . 6
Indonesia Infrastructure SWOT 6
Market Overview 7
MFIs Providing Finance And Reform Assistance 7
Seeking New Avenues Of Financing . 8
Regulatory Changes Taking Place 9
Industry Trend Analysis 11
Launching PPPs 16
A Favourite Among Asian Economies . 17
PE Participation Minimal . 19
Competitive Landscape 20
Table: EQS Data 20
Building Materials 22
Global . 22
Asia 25
Cement Forecasts . 30
Table: Indonesia Cement Production and Consumption Data, 2009 - 2015 30
Table: Indonesia Cement Production and Consumption Data, 2015 - 2021 30
Cement Forecast Scenario 31
Industry Forecast Scenario 32
Table: Indonesia Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008 - 2016. 32
Table: Indonesia Construction And Infrastructure Long-Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 . 33
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario . 35
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario . 35
Transport Infrastructure 42
Table: Indonesia Transport Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008 - 2016 . 42
Table: Indonesia Transport Infrastructure Industry Data, 2013 - 2021 . 44
Transport Infrastructure Outlook and Overview 46
Table: Competitiveness Of Indonesia''s Infrastructure . 47
Major Projects Table – Transport . 54
Table: Major Projects – Transport 54
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure . 64
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data, 2008 - 2016 64
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Long-Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 65
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Outlook and Overview 67
Major Projects Table – Energy And Utilities 79
Table: Major Projects – Energy And Utilities. 79
Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure . 88
Table: Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure Data . 88
Table: Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure Data . 88
Residential/Non-Residential Building Outlook and Overview 89
Major Projects Table – Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure . 93
Table: Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure . 93
Indonesia Infrastructure Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Risk/Reward Ratings 95
Indonesia Risk/Reward Ratings 95
Rewards . 95
Risks . 96
Regional Overview 97
Table: China, India, Indonesia - BMI interest rate views . 98
Table: Emerging South East Asia - BMI Interest Rate Views100
Table: Nearly Developed Asia - BMI Interest Rate Views .102
Table: Regional Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings .104
Company Monitor . 105
PT Adhi Karya 105
PT Wijaya Karya (WIKA) 107
PT Jasa Marga .109
Global Overview . 112
Table: BMI Infrastructure Index - YTD Top Performers (%) .115
Table: BMI Infrastructure Index - YTD Worst Performers (%) 115
Methodology . 116
Industry Forecasts .116
Construction Industry .117
Data Methodology .117
New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors .117
Construction .118
Capital Investment .119
Construction Sector Employment 120
Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings 120
Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators 121Table: EQS Data
Table: Indonesia Cement Production and Consumption Data
Table: Indonesia Cement Production and Consumption Data
Table: Indonesia Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
Table: Indonesia Construction And Infrastructure LongTerm Forecasts
Table: Indonesia Transport Infrastructure Industry Data
Table: Indonesia Transport Infrastructure Industry Data
Table: Competitiveness Of Indonesia''s Infrastructure
Table: Major Projects – Transport
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure LongTerm Forecasts
Table: Major Projects – Energy And Utilities
Table: Residential/NonResidential Construction And Social Infrastructure Data
Table: Residential/NonResidential Construction And Social Infrastructure Data
Table: Residential/NonResidential Construction And Social Infrastructure
Table: China India Indonesia BMI interest rate views
Table: Emerging South East Asia BMI Interest Rate Views
Table: Nearly Developed Asia BMI Interest Rate Views
Table: Regional Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: BMI Infrastructure Index YTD Top Performers (%)
Table: BMI Infrastructure Index YTD Worst Performers (%)
Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators

Indonesia Infrastructure Report Q4 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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