BMI India Retail Report Q4 2012

Published : August 2012
No. of Pages : 87

Price:

The Indian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm
concerns about the impact on India’s economic outlook of continued fiscal indiscipline.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Indian retail market while minimising
investment risk, and also explores the impact of the risk of another spike in global oil prices on the Indian
consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading
players in the Indian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local
market.
India comes second (out of seven) in BMI’s Asia Retail risk/reward ratings, although it underperforms
for risk.
Among all retail categories, Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2016 in
growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 112.3% between 2012 and 2016, from US$31.45bn to
US$66.77bn as India’s emerging middle class continues to drive demand for new goods and services, and
rural retailing presents expansion opportunities.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the eventual removal of Foreign Direct Investment
(FDI) restrictions in multi-brand retail.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
􀂃 BMI is keeping to its forecast for annual real GDP growth to improve to 7.3% this fiscal year,
from an estimated 6.8% in FY2011/12. Our core view is that Indian economic growth has
bottomed out, and we therefore expect to see the country posting higher quarterly real GDP
growth rates in the fiscal year ahead (FY2012/13, April-March). The crucial part of our
expectation for an acceleration of growth hinges on the assumption that monetary policy easing
will commence soon. We maintain that India''s recovery is unlikely to be V-shaped, and we do
not expect a strong enough bounce in overall investment activity.
􀂃 BMI expects private expenditure (which makes up the bulk of GDP in the country''s national
accounts at approximately 60%) to pick up as Indian households find relief from the anticipated
lower cost of credit. Furthermore, a drawn-out period of disinflation (our core view) should
provide respite to household budgets'' purchasing power. Our projection sees average headline
India Retail Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6
inflation falling to 6.6% in FY2012/13 (from an estimated 8.7% in FY2011/12). We expect
private consumption growth to rise to 6.2% this fiscal year, contributing 3.9 percentage points
(pp) to headline growth.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 7
India Retail Business Environment SWOT . 7
India Political SWOT 8
India Economic SWOT . 9
Market Overview 10
Current Trends. 11
Key Players . 15
Industry Forecast Scenario 20
Consumer Outlook 20
Retail Growth Outlook . 23
Table: India Retail Sales Indicators, 2008-2016 24
Table: Retail Sector Breakdown By Key Segment, 2012f 25
Macroeconomic Outlook . 26
Table: India - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 . 29
Regional Retail Outlook 30
Asia Pacific Retail Outlook 30
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn) 30
Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (%) 31
Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption, 2009-2016 (US$bn) 33
Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook, 2009-2016. 38
Risk/Reward Ratings 39
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings 39
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Risk/Reward Ratings 39
India’s Retail Risk/Reward Ratings . 40
Limits To Potential Returns . 40
Risks To Realisation Of Returns . 40
Mass Grocery Retail . 42
India Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 42
Market Overview 43
Leading MGR Players 44
Table: Structure of India''s Mass Grocery Retail Market by Estimated Number of Outlets 46
Table: Structure of India''s Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales by Format (US$mn) . 46
Table: Structure of India''s Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales by Format (INRmn) . 47
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format (%) – Historical Data & Forecasts 47
Industry Forecast Scenario 47
Table: India MGR Sales by Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 49
Table: Average Outlet Sales by Format – 2011 . 49
Industry Developments. 50
Consumer Electronics 52
India Consumer Electronics Market SWOT 52
India Retail Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
India Electronics Industry SWOT 53
Market Overview 54
Computers 54
Table: Computer Sales, 2009-2016 54
Drivers 55
Segments 56
Netbooks 58
Tablets 59
Low-Cost PCs 60
Table: Total Desktop Sales 60
AV 61
Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016 . 61
Mobile Handsets . 65
Table: Mobile Communications: Demand, 2009-2016 65
Industry Forecast Scenario 70
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016 . 71
Industry Developments. 71
Automotives 74
India Autos Industry SWOT . 74
Industry Forecast 75
Production And Sales . 75
Table: India Autos Sector - Sales And Production 75
Passenger Vehicles – Forecast and Analysis 76
Production And Sales . 76
Table: India Autos Sector - Passenger Cars . 76
Industry Developments. 76
India Demographic Outlook 80
Table: India''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) 81
Table: India''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 81
Table: India''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 82
Table: India''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 83
BMI Methodology . 84
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 84
Sources 85Table: India Retail Sales Indicators
Table: Retail Sector Breakdown By Key Segment f
Table: India Economic Activity
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales (US$bn)
Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales (%)
Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption (US$bn)
Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Structure of India''s Mass Grocery Retail Market by Estimated Number of Outlets
Table: Structure of India''s Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales by Format (US$mn)
Table: Structure of India''s Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales by Format (INRmn)
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format (%) – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: India MGR Sales by Format – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Average Outlet Sales by Format –
Table: Computer Sales
Table: Total Desktop Sales
Table: AV Sales
Table: Mobile Communications: Demand
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview
Table: India Autos Sector Sales And Production
Table: India Autos Sector Passenger Cars
Table: India''s Population By Age Group ('')
Table: India''s Population By Age Group (% of total)
Table: India''s Key Population Ratios
Table: India''s Rural And Urban Population

BMI India Retail Report Q4 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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