Bulgaria Telecommunications Report Q4 2012

Published : August 2012
No. of Pages : 91

Price:

BMI View: Bulgaria’s mobile market is close to saturation, with mobile growth slowing down to single
digits during the last three years and mobile penetration reaching 161% by Q112, according to BMI
data. We expect mobile network operators to increasingly focus on advanced data services to boost
revenue growth amid intense price competition in the voice segment. Meanwhile, we expect consolidation
in the mobile and fixed-line sectors to attract much needed capital for network investment and the roll-out
of next generation access networks.
Key data
􀂃 Mobile growth slowed in Q112 compared to the latter part of 2011 as the seasonal effects of on
growth and promotional activities in Q311 and Q411 wore off.
􀂃 We revised up our fixed-line forecast to reflect new market data that show the market recorded
positive growth in 2010 and 2011.
􀂃 Our broadband forecast increased after the country’s mobile network operators reported strong
take-up of mobile broadband services.
􀂃 Bulgaria’s ARPU fell sharply in Q112 as operators reacted to slow subscriber growth with lower
tariffs and promotional activities to boost subscriptions.
Risk/Reward Ratings
Bulgaria remains in the 11th position on our Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR) table in this quarter’s update,
with no change to its aggregate score from the previous quarter or its ratings in any of our four ratings
categories. Bulgaria scores below the regional average in all four of our ratings categories, while the
country’s aggregate score of 46.7 is 2.3pts below the overall regional average. Bulgaria’s lowest rating is
in the Industry Rewards category where a combination of declining subscriber growth and rapidly falling
ARPU are among factors impacting on its ratings.
Key Trends And Developments
Bulgaria’s telecoms market was dominated by reports of consolidation during the first half of 2012.
Russia’s VTB Capital and Bulgaria’s Corporate Commercial Bank are the latest investors to express in
incumbent operator Vivacom. Other bids are from Icelandic billionaire Thor Bjorgolfsson and Pamplona
Capital Management, a UK-based private equity group. Meanwhile, in June 2012, Greek incumbent
OTE said it plans to sell its Bulgarian unit Globul. Globul is Bulgaria’s second biggest mobile operator
by subscribers and the entry of new core investors changes the dynamics of the mobile market.

Executive Summary . 7
SWOT Analysis 8
Bulgaria Mobile SWOT 8
Bulgaria Wireline SWOT 9
Bulgaria Political SWOT 10
Bulgaria Economic SWOT 11
Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT . 11
Risk/Reward Ratings 12
Central And Eastern Europe 12
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q412 17
Bulgaria . 18
Industry Forecast Scenario 20
Mobile . 20
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts 20
ARPU 22
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile ARPU (BGN) – Historical Data & Forecasts 22
Fixed Line 24
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts . 24
Internet 26
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts 26
Market Overview – Mobile 28
Regional Perspective 28
Bulgaria Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2011 28
Key Developments . 29
Mobile Growth . 30
Title: Bulgaria Mobile Market Growth, 2010-2012 30
Market Share . 31
Usage (MOU/ARPU) . 33
MVNOs 34
Networks 34
3G 34
Mobile Content/Value-Added Services 36
Mobile Operator Data . 39
Table: Market Overview . 39
Table: Mobiltel 39
Table: Globul . 40
Table Vivacom . 41
Mobile Content 42
Regional Outlook 42
Fixed Line 46
Broadband 49
Cable. 51
WiMAX 53
IPTV And FTTx 54
Bulgaria Telecommunications Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Mobile Broadband 55
Industry Trends And Developments 57
Wireline (Fixed-Line & Broadband) Developments 58
Table: Wireline Developments (2008-2010) . 58
Mobile Contract Wins 60
Table: Mobile Contract Wins . 60
Value-Added Services Timeline . 61
Table: VAS Timeline 61
Regulatory Environment 63
Table: Bulgaria Regulatory Bodies And Responsibilities 63
Legislation 63
Regulatory Developments . 64
Competitive Landscape 68
Key Players . 68
Table: Key Players: Bulgaria Telecoms Sector 68
Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators, 2003-2009 68
Operator Profiles . 69
Vivacom . 69
Mobiltel (M-Tel) 73
Regional Overview . 76
Competitive Landscape – Huawei''s CEE Adventures 76
Leading Vendors'' Financial Performance (US$mn), 2010-2011 . 76
Demographic Forecast . 81
Section 1: Population . 81
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 81
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 . 82
Section 2: Education And Healthcare . 82
Table: Education, 2002-2005 . 82
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 82
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 83
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 83
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 83
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 84
Glossary Of Terms . 85
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 85
BMI Methodology . 86
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 86
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts . 86
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings . 88
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 88
Ratings System . 88
Indicators . 88
Table: Ratings Indicators 89
Weighting . 90
Bulgaria Telecommunications Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 5
Table: Weighting Of Indicators. 90
Sources 90Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings Q
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile ARPU (BGN) – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Market Overview
Table: Mobiltel
Table: Globul
Table Vivacom
Table: Wireline Developments ()
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
Table: VAS Timeline
Table: Bulgaria Regulatory Bodies And Responsibilities
Table: Key Players: Bulgaria Telecoms Sector
Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators
Table: Demographic Indicators
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown
Table: Education
Table: Vital Statistics
Table: Employment Indicators
Table: Consumer Expenditure (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Table: Ratings Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

Bulgaria Telecommunications Report Q4 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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