Brazil Tourism Report Q4 2012

Published : August 2012
No. of Pages : 73

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The Brazil Tourism Report examines the significant long-term potential being offered by the local
tourism industry, but flags short-term concerns about the lack of adequate airport infrastructure posing a
challenge to the future development of air travel within the country.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by some of the
leading players in the Brazilian tourism sector (airlines and hotel chains), as they seek to maximise the
tremendous growth opportunities being offered by the local market at the present time. The government is
also taking steps to increase the amount of foreign investment in the tourism sector, with the Secretary of
Tourism Development Programmes, Fabio Mota, travelling to the Arabian Hotel Investment Conference
2012, held in Dubai in April-May, to boost foreign investor interest in Brazil.
With Brazil hosting the football World Cup in 2014 and the Olympic Games being held in Rio de Janeiro
in 2016, BMI believes tourist arrivals will continue to grow strongly in the years ahead. Looking at
preliminary indications for the current year, international disembarkations – which are released monthly
by the Ministry of Tourism and serve as a proxy for tourist arrivals in the absence of this data being
released by the ministry – show an increase of 4.95% year-on-year (y-o-y) over the first five months of
2012, to 3,890,492. Domestic disembarkations are also on an upward trajectory, rising by 6.62% y-o-y
over January-May to 34,013,697.
The disembarkation data from the Ministry of Tourism covers all arrivals, including business, leisure and
people visiting family and friends. However, whatever the purpose of travel, the data shows the overall
trend in tourism remains positive in mid-2012, which will benefit airlines and hotels operating in Brazil.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:
􀂃 BMI believes the May announcement of a further US$3bn investment in tourism-related
infrastructure by the Ministry of Tourism is very positive. This continued commitment to
improving Brazil’s tourism offering by the government should do much to bolster visitor
numbers in the years ahead.
􀂃 This quarter, BMI has included a new company profile on Latam Airlines, including SWOT
analysis, which can be found in the Company Profiles chapter of the report.
􀂃 BMI has slightly reduced its forecast for 2012 tourist arrivals, down to 8.0% growth from 9.3%,
given the relatively slow start to the year. Over 2012-2016, we forecast a 40% increase in tourist
arrivals to 8.26mn people.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Brazil Tourism Industry SWOT 6
Brazil Political SWOT 7
Brazil Economic SWOT . 8
Brazil Business Environment SWOT 9
Industry Forecast Scenario 10
Arrivals 10
Table: Arrivals, 2009-2016 11
Accommodation 11
Table: Accommodation, 2009-2016 (‘000) 12
Expenditure . 12
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2009-2016 13
Inbound Tourism . 13
Table: Inbound Tourism, 2009-2016 . 14
Outbound Tourism 15
Table: Outbound Tourism, 2009-2016 15
Market Overview – Travel 17
Commercial Airlines 17
Airports 17
Infrastructure 19
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 20
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, 2011-2016 . 20
Market Overview – Hospitality 27
Accommodation 27
Accommodation Developments . 28
Budget Hotels 29
Business Environment Outlook 31
Table: Latin America Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings . 31
BMI’s Security Ratings 31
Table: Latin America Security Ratings . 32
Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings 32
Brazil’s Security Risk Ratings 32
Latin America Security Overview 34
Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 34
Latin America In A Global Context 34
Challenges And Threats To Security . 35
Role Of Outside Powers 48
Key Factors To Consider In The 2010s . 50
Global Assumptions 54
Table: Global Assumptions, 2010-2016 54
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y) 55
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 . 55
Brazil Tourism Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 . 56
Developed States . 56
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y) . 57
Emerging Markets . 58
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y) . 59
Company Profiles 60
Brazil Hospitality Group . 60
Gol Transportes Aéreos 61
Latam Airlines . 63
Demographic Outlook 65
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 66
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 67
Table: Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 68
Table: Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020 68
BMI Methodology . 69
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 69
Tourism Industry 69
Tourism Ratings – Methodology . 70
Table: Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators . 71
Table: Weighting Of Components 72
Sources 72Table: Arrivals
Table: Accommodation (‘)
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact
Table: Inbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts
Table: Latin America Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Latin America Security Ratings
Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings
Table: Global Assumptions
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth (% chg yoy)
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts (% chg yoy)
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth (% chg yoy)
Table: Population By Age Group (‘)
Table: Population By Age Group (% of total)
Table: Key Population Ratios
Table: Rural/Urban Population Split
Table: Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components

Brazil Tourism Report Q4 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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