Brazil Defence and Security Report Q4 2012

Published : August 2012
No. of Pages : 82

Price:

BMI’s Brazil Defence & Security Report for Q4 2012 examines the current health and future prospects of
the country’s defence community, chiefly its armed forces and defence industry.
So as to understand the prospects and health of Brazil’s defence community, the report takes a
multifaceted approach. It examines the internal and external security challenges faced by the country, the
modus operandi of political defence decision-making, and how these decisions are transformed into
military action. In addition, it outlines the order of battle of the country’s armed forces, the respective
sizes of the armed forces, current defence procurement programmes and future anticipated acquisitions of
military materiel.
Beyond this, the report also investigates Brazil’s growing defence industrial sector, particularly in the
realm of aerospace, and the impact that this defence industry could have in the domestic and international
context.
The report makes several key findings. Firstly, it notes that the country has a long-term objective to
become a major player in the global defence industry; both in Latin America, and abroad. Secondly, it
notes that Brazil is playing an increasingly important role vis-à-vis security both within and without its
wider region. This includes its relationships with its neighbours and its participation in international
peacekeeping missions. Fourthly, the Brazilian defence establishment is wedded to a long-term
programme of defence modernisation. This is focused on the replacement of obsolete platforms and
capabilities with new domestically produced and imported equipment.
Long term, Brazil sees itself as a global player both in terms of defence materiel provision and in terms of
operational participation. This is a trend that is unlikely to change over the next decade.
Over the last quarter BMI has made some additions to the Brazil Defence & Security Report. These have
included:
􀂃 New information regarding Embraer’s development of its KC-390 medium-lift turboprop
freighter.
􀂃 Clarifications regarding American participation in Brazil’s so-called ‘FX-2’ Multi-Role Combat
Aircraft acquisition.
􀂃 Information regarding Brazil’s levels of defence spending between 2006 and 2010.
􀂃 Details regarding an emerging defence partnership forged between Brazil and Turkey.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 6
Brazil Security SWOT 6
Brazil Defence Industry SWOT 7
Brazil Political SWOT . 8
Brazil Economic SWOT . 8
Brazil Business Environment SWOT 9
Global Political Outlook 10
No Respite From Political Risks . 10
Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korea . 10
Table: Election Timetable . 13
Wild Cards To Watch . 18
Latin America Security Overview 21
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s . 21
Latin America In A Global Context 21
Challenges And Threats To Security . 21
The Role Of Outside Powers 35
Key Factors To Consider In The 2010s. 37
Security Risk Analysis 40
BMI’s Regional Security Ratings 40
Table: Latin America Security Ratings . 40
Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings. 40
Brazil’s Security Risk Ratings 41
Political Overview . 43
Domestic Politics I 43
Environmental Concerns To Play More Prominent Role 43
Domestic Politics II 46
Opposition Gaining Strength In São Paulo 46
Implications For The 2014 Presidential Election 48
Long-Term Political Outlook . 49
Significant Policy Challenges Ahead 49
Table: Brazil’s Political Overview . 52
Brazil Security Overview 54
Internal Security Situation 54
Amazon Basin 54
Gun Crime And Violence 55
Corruption 55
External Security Situation 56
Table: Regional Insurgent Groups . 56
Brazil-Colombia 56
Brazil-Paraguay 57
Armed Forces And Government Spending 58
Armed Forces 58
International Deployments 59
Brazil Defence & Security Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Table: Foreign Deployments . 59
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 60
Market Overview 62
Arms Trade Overview 62
Industry Trends And Developments 63
Procurement Trends And Developments 64
Industry Forecast Scenario 69
Armed Forces 69
Table: Brazil''s Armed Forces, 2000-2009 (''000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 69
Table: Brazil''s Manpower Available For Military Service, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 69
Defence Expenditure 70
Table: Brazil''s Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 . 70
Table: Brazil''s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP (US$mn) . 71
Defence Exports . 71
Table: Brazil''s Defence Exports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 72
Table: Brazil''s Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 72
Table: Brazil''s Defence Trade Balance, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 73
Macroeconomic Outlook . 73
Imbalances To Begin Unwinding, Three Potential Scenarios . 73
Table: Brazil’s Long-term Macroeconomic Forecasts, 2014-2021 76
Company Profiles . 77
AVIBRAS Indústria Aerospacial SA 77
Embraer . 78
BMI Methodology . 80
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 80
Defence Industry 80
Sources 81Table: Election Timetable
Table: Latin America Security Ratings
Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings
Table: Brazil’s Political Overview
Table: Regional Insurgent Groups
Table: Foreign Deployments
Table: Brazil''s Armed Forces ('' personnel unless otherwise stated)
Table: Brazil''s Manpower Available For Military Service (aged unless otherwise stated)
Table: Brazil''s Defence Expenditure
Table: Brazil''s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP (US$mn)
Table: Brazil''s Defence Exports (US$mn)
Table: Brazil''s Defence Imports (US$mn)
Table: Brazil''s Defence Trade Balance (US$mn)
Table: Brazil’s Longterm Macroeconomic Forecasts

Brazil Defence and Security Report Q4 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

Price:

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