United States Power Report Q3 2012

Published : August 2012
No. of Pages : 92

Price:

BMI View: With the US economy likely to stage a slow recovery, our Country Risk analysts maintain
their below-consensus 2.0% real GDP growth forecast for 2012 and both our short- and long-term views
for the US power sector remain in place. Although the release of new historical generation and capacity
data by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has prompted us to revise our forecasts, we remain
of the opinion that the US'' mature power market will realise only a moderate rise in generation and
consumption over the coming years. Most notably, factoring in the most recent industry-specific, weather
and macroeconomic indicators, we have further moderated our 2012 consumption growth forecast to
0.89% (previously 1.27%).
Recently released industry-specific and macroeconomic indicators have reaffirmed BMI''s belowconsensus
real GDP growth forecast for the US (Bloomberg consensus is 2.3%), as a strong finish to
2011 has given way to disappointing employment and production data. In light of these developments,
and of new data specific to the power sector, we thus remain of the opinion that growth in the US
electricity market will remain sluggish in 2012. That said, we see the power market in the US performing
better than in 2011.
In addition, based on these short-term considerations, as well as on longer-term expectations, we also
maintain our view that electricity consumption, and thus generation, will grow only modestly over our
forecast period (2012-2021). Taking into account the existing level of installed capacity and planned
retirements, the country''s power sector appears relatively well positioned to meet power demand, and
BMI’s long-held view that investment in new electricity generating capacity will drop from recent record
levels in the coming years remains in place.
This notwithstanding, progressive changes in the power generation mix will continue to take place, with
new gas volumes and changes in prices playing a cardinal role:
􀂃 The green credentials of gas-fired generation, and the favourable economic circumstances, are a
primary cause of coal''s diminishing position as the fuel of choice in the US. The country’s power
plants produced the same amount of electricity from natural gas and coal for the first time in
April 2012, and the coal sector in the United States was hit very hard over H112.
􀂃 Similarly, comparative capital and fuel-related costs will influence technology choices for new
renewables generating capacity. Aside from cheap gas, regulatory uncertainty is bound to
significantly affect capacity planning, with recent data from Q112 fully illustrating the boombust
scenario being experienced across the US renewable sector owning primarily to the expiry
of some tax credits and guarantee programmes.

Executive Summary . 7
SWOT Analysis 8
United States Power SWOT 8
Global Industry Overview 9
Regional Industry Overview . 15
Developed Countries'' Power Outlook: North America To Outperform Eurozone . 15
Industry Forecast Scenario 20
United States Snapshot (Macro) 20
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data 20
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 20
US Forecast Scenario 21
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity . 21
Table: United States Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 21
Table: United States Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021 23
Table: United States Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 26
Table: United States Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 27
Table: US Nuclear Power Reactors – Under Construction, Planned And Proposed . 36
Electricity Consumption 39
Table: United States Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 39
Table: United States Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 39
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 41
Table: United States Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 41
Table: United States Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021 41
Table: United States Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 41
Table: United States Trade Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021 41
State-By-State Breakdown . 44
Table: US - States Electricity Profiles In 2010 . 44
Alabama . 46
Alaska . 46
Arizona 46
Arkansas 46
California. 46
Colorado 47
Connecticut . 47
Delaware . 47
District Of Columbia 48
Florida 48
Georgia 48
Hawaii 48
Idaho . 48
Illinois . 49
Indiana 49
Iowa 49
Kansas 49
Kentucky 50
United States Power Report Q3 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Louisiana . 50
Maine 50
Maryland . 50
Massachusetts 51
Michigan 51
Minnesota 51
Mississippi 51
Missouri . 51
Montana . 52
Nebraska 52
Nevada 52
New Hampshire . 52
New Jersey 53
New Mexico 53
New York 53
North Carolina . 53
North Dakota . 53
Ohio 54
Oklahoma. 54
Oregon 54
Pennsylvania 55
Rhode Island 55
South Carolina . 55
South Dakota . 55
Tennessee . 55
Texas . 56
Utah 56
Vermont . 56
Virginia 56
Washington . 57
West Virginia . 57
Wisconsin . 57
Wyoming 57
Key Policies/Market Structure 58
Regulation and Competition 58
Sustainable Energy Policies . 60
Table: 2009 State Energy-Related CO2 Emissions . 60
Pricing 62
Key Projects Database . 64
Table: Major Projects – Power Plants & Transmission Grids 64
Risk/Reward Ratings 74
Developed States Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings 74
Table: Developed States Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 77
United States Power Risk/Reward Ratings . 79
Rewards . 79
Risks 79
Competitive Landscape/Company Monitor 80
Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) . 80
SCE 81
United States Power Report Q3 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 5
Exelon . 81
NextEra/FPL 81
Southern . 82
Dominion . 82
Entergy 82
American Electric . 82
Mid-American/PacifiCorp 83
Xcel Energy . 83
Duke Energy 83
Constellation 83
Glossary of Terms . 85
Table: Glossary of Terms 85
Methodology And Sources 86
Industry Forecasts 86
Power Industry - Data Methodology . 87
Generation and Consumption Data 87
Electricity Generation Capacity Data . 88
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology . 88
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 90
Sources 91 Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Table: United States Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts
Table: United States Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts
Table: United States Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts
Table: United States Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts
Table: US Nuclear Power Reactors – Under Construction Planned And Proposed
Table: United States Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts
Table: United States Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts
Table: United States Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts
Table: United States Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts
Table: United States Trade Data And Forecasts
Table: United States Trade Data And Forecasts
Table: US States Electricity Profiles In
Table: State EnergyRelated CO Emissions
Table: Major Projects –Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Table: United States Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts
Table: United States Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts
Table: United States Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts
Table: United States Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts
Table: US Nuclear Power Reactors – Under Construction Planned And Proposed
Table: United States Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts
Table: United States Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts
Table: United States Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts
Table: United States Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts
Table: United States Trade Data And Forecasts
Table: United States Trade Data And Forecasts
Table: US States Electricity Profiles In
Table: State EnergyRelated CO Emissions
Table: Major Projects – Power Plants & Transmission Grids
Table: Developed States Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of )
Table: Glossary of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
Power Plants & Transmission Grids
Table: Developed States Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of )
Table: Glossary of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators

United States Power Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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