Saudi Arabia Power Report Q3 2012

Published : August 2012
No. of Pages : 61

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BMI View: Recently-released indicators have reaffirmed BMI’s positive outlook on the Saudi Arabian
economy, prompting our country risk analysts to hike our forecast for real GDP growth in 2012 from
4.6% to 5.3%. While growth is expected to slow in 2013 as the impact of government spending begins to
fade, we remain of the opinion that Saudi Arabia’s power sector will remain among the most dynamic in
the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), owing to both macroeconomic and demographic dynamics. That
said, we reiterate once again that the existing regulatory environment creates downside risks for new
projects, as it remains highly inadequate, with Saudi Electric Company (SEC) facing a rising financial
burden owing to the under-pricing of electricity and rising financial requirements.
The Saudi Arabian economy is firing on all cylinders, as relatively high oil prices in the first part of the
year, heavy government spending and buoyant consumer confidence continue to drive growth. The
positive macroeconomic outlook has been reaffirmed by a host of leading indicators – credit growth,
business sentiment and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data all point to a robust expansion across the
economy. We thus maintain our healthy growth outlook for the country’s power sector.
􀂃 Saudi Arabia has a very strong track record in the development of power projects. The Saudi
government has long demonstrated a substantial commitment to social and economic
infrastructure (and to the power sector in particular), and the increased volatility due to the Arab
Spring is likely to strengthen these commitments.
􀂃 The country is executing an extremely ambitious US$80bn expansion plan for power projects,
with the Kingdom’s Ninth Development Plan (2010-2014) aiming to raise generating capacity
by 20.4 gigawatts (GW) by 2014. Even if BMI adopts a conservative stance, and only 70% of
the planned capacity comes online, our forecasts show that the country will be able to meet its
commitments, and total installed capacity will reach about 72GW by 2014.
􀂃 From this perspective, we note that, although at present Saudi Arabia''s electricity mix is
dominated by oil and gas, the country has been looking to diversify its electricity mix for quite
some time. The country recently announced that it is seeking US$109bn of investment to be
channelled into expanding its undeveloped solar industry – aiming to reach an ambitious target
of 41GW of installed capacity by 2032.
That said, we note that some downside risks to the business and regulatory environment remain pertinent.
Similarly, mixed results in efforts to boost gas exploration could limit the Kingdom’s aspirations to free
up oil for export. Furthermore, question marks over the long-term viability of the country''s economic
model – which is unlikely to prove sustainable without greater efforts on the part of the government to
diversify the economy away from oil – cast a shadow over the performance of the power sector.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 6
Saudi Arabia Power SWOT. 6
Global Industry Overview 7
Regional Industry Overview 14
Industry Forecast Scenario 19
Saudi Arabia Snapshot (Macro) 19
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data 19
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 19
Saudi Arabia Forecast Scenario . 20
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity . 20
Table: Saudi Arabia Total Electricity Generation – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008 - 2016 20
Table: Saudi Arabia Total Electricity Generation – Long-Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 . 21
Table: Saudi Arabia Electricity Generating Capacity – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008 - 2016 . 23
Table: Saudi Arabia Electricity Generating Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 . 24
Table: New Capacity – Planned Or In The Pipeline, 2012-2021 (MW) . 29
Electricity Consumption 35
Table: Saudi Arabia Total Electricity Consumption – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 35
Table: Saudi Arabia Total Electricity Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 35
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 37
Table: Saudi Arabia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 37
Table: Saudi Arabia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses – Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 37
Table: Saudi Arabia Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 37
Table: Saudi Arabia – Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 37
Key Policies/Market Structure 40
Regulation and Competition 40
Key Projects Database . 41
Table: Major Projects – Transmission Grids And Power Plants . 41
Risk/Reward Ratings 46
MEA Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings . 46
Table: MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) . 46
Saudi Arabia Power Risk/Reward Ratings . 51
Rewards . 51
Risks . 51
Competitive Landscape 52
Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) 52
Glossary of Terms 54
Table: Glossary of Terms 54
Methodology And Sources . 55
Industry Forecasts 55
Power Industry – Data Methodology 56
Generation and Consumption Data 56
Electricity Generation Capacity Data . 57
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology . 57
Saudi Arabia Power Report Q3 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 59
Sources 60Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Table: Saudi Arabia Total Electricity Generation – Historical Data And Forecasts
Table: Saudi Arabia Total Electricity Generation – LongTerm Forecasts
Table: Saudi Arabia Electricity Generating Capacity – Historical Data And Forecasts
Table: Saudi Arabia Electricity Generating Capacity – LongTerm Forecasts
Table: New Capacity – Planned Or In The Pipeline (MW)
Table: Saudi Arabia Total Electricity Consumption – Historical Data And Forecasts
Table: Saudi Arabia Total Electricity Consumption – LongTerm Forecasts
Table: Saudi Arabia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses – Historical Data And Forecasts
Table: Saudi Arabia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses – LongTerm Forecasts
Table: Saudi Arabia Trade Data And Forecasts
Table: Saudi Arabia – LongTerm Trade Forecasts
Table: Major Projects – Transmission Grids And Power Plants
Table: MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of )
Table: Glossary of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators

Saudi Arabia Power Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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