Romania Commercial Banking Report Q3 2012

Published : August 2012
No. of Pages : 65

Price:

Since Q108, BMI has described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries it
surveys. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a
measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency
across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment
Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports. Like the Business Environment Ratings
calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the
limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former
and 30% to the latter.
The evaluation of the ''Limits of potential returns'' includes market elements that are specific to the
banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the
70% of the CBBER that takes into account the ''Limits of potential returns'', the market elements have a
60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the ''Risks to
realisation of returns'' also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI''s
assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that take into account the
risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively.
Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though,
three aspects need to be borne in mind when interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market
elements of the ''Limits of potential returns'' are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements.
They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are
significantly higher than the country elements of the ''Limits of potential returns'', it usually implies that
the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial
infrastructure in the country. Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country
elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general
wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the ''Risks to the realisation of
returns'' category, the market elements (i.e. how regulations affect the development of the sector, how
regulations affect competition within it, and Moody''s Investor Services'' ratings for local currency
deposits) can be markedly different from BMI''s long-term risk rating.

Executive Summary . 5
Table: Levels (RONbn) 5
Table: Levels (US$bn) . 5
Table: Levels At April 2012 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2012-2016 (%) . 5
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 6
Table: Projected Levels (RONbn), 2008-2016 6
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn), 2008-2016 . 6
SWOT Analysis 7
Romania Commercial Banking SWOT 7
Romania Political SWOT 7
Romania Economic SWOT 8
Romania Business Environment SWOT. 8
Business Environment Outlook 9
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating . 9
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 9
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology 10
Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 11
Global Commercial Banking Outlook . 12
Eurozone Regional Outlooks . 20
CEE Banking Sectors Hold Little Promise For Investment Returns 20
Regional Banking Sector Outlook . 27
Europe Banking Sector Forecast Overview 27
Table: Banks'' Bond Portfolios 2011 . 27
Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 28
Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios . 29
Table: Anticipated Developments in 2012 30
Table: Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn) 31
Table: Comparison of US$ Per Capita Deposits (2011) 32
Table: Interbank Rates and Bond Yields 33
Romania Banking Sector Outlook . 34
Economic Outlook . 38
Table: Romania – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 41
Competitive Landscape 42
Market Structure . 42
Protagonists 42
Table: Protagonists In Romania''s Commercial Banking Sector 42
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe 42
List Of Banks 43
Table: Competitive Landscape Overview . 43
Romania Commercial Banking Report Q3 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Company Profiles 45
Banca Comerciala Romana . 45
Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2006-2009 46
Table: Balance Sheet (RONmn, unless stated), 2006-2010 . 46
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated), 2006-2010 46
Table: Key Ratios (%), 2006-2010 . 47
UniCredit Tiriac Bank . 48
Table: Stock Market Indicators, 2007-2009 49
Table: Balance Sheet (RONmn, unless stated), 2007-2009 . 49
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated), 2007-2009 49
Table: Key Ratios (%), 2007-2009 . 49
Raiffeisen Bank 50
Table: Key Statistics For Raiffeisen Bank Romania, 2008-2010 (RONmn), 2008-2010 51
Bancpost 52
Table: Key Statistics For Bancpost, 2008-2009 (EURmn) 53
CEC Bank 54
Table: Key Statistics For CEC Bank, 2008-2009 (RONmn) 55
ING Bank Romania . 56
Banca Transilvania . 57
Table: Key Statistics For Banca Transilvania, 2008-2010 (RONmn) . 57
Volksbank. 58
BRD-Groupe Société Générale . 59
Table: Key Statistics For BRD-Groupe Societe Generale, 2008-2010 (RONmn) 60
BMI Banking Sector Methodology . 61
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 63
Table: Weighting Of Indicators. 64Table: Levels (RONbn)
Table: Levels (US$bn)
Table: Levels At April
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections (%)
Table: Ranking Out Of Countries Reviewed In
Table: Projected Levels (RONbn)
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Table: Banks'' Bond Portfolios
Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios
Table: Anticipated Developments in
Table: Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn)
Table: Comparison of US$ Per Capita Deposits ()
Table: Interbank Rates and Bond Yields
Table: Romania – Economic Activity
Table: Protagonists In Romania''s Commercial Banking Sector
Table: Competitive Landscape Overview
Table: Stock Market Indicators
Table: Balance Sheet (RONmn unless stated)
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn unless stated)
Table: Key Ratios (%)
Table: Stock Market Indicators
Table: Balance Sheet (RONmn unless stated)
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn unless stated)
Table: Key Ratios (%)
Table: Key Statistics For Raiffeisen Bank Romania (RONmn)
Table: Key Statistics For Bancpost (EURmn)
Table: Key Statistics For CEC Bank (RONmn)
Table: Key Statistics For Banca Transilvania (RONmn)
Table: Key Statistics For BRDGroupe Societe Generale (RONmn)
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

Romania Commercial Banking Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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