Indonesia Power Report Q3 2012

Published : August 2012
No. of Pages : 65

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BMI View: Thermal power generation will remain the most dominant form of electricity generation in
the country, with coal comprising the lion’s share due to Indonesia’s vast coal reserves. Renewables will
also play a role with geothermal energy expected to become a key domestic growth area. There is huge
hydro potential but only a limited development programme. Investment will have to meet government
targets if Indonesia is to avoid a steady rise in power import dependency.
Indonesia is moving slowly ahead with controversial plans to build its first nuclear power plant. Several
schemes exist at the preliminary planning stage, but there is little evidence to suggest plant start-up during
the current decade. The government says it has a total of US$8bn earmarked for four nuclear plants,
which are intended to generate 6 gigawatts (GW) of power by 2025. There is no expectation of electricity
production from nuclear power over our forecast period.
Key trends and recent developments in the Indonesian electricity market include:
􀂃 Industry reports suggest that Indonesia holds up to 76GW of hydropower potential, but the
country has yet to embark on the large hydro-electric programmes seen elsewhere in the Asia
Pacific region. The capital costs involved have most likely deterred investors, who prefer to stick
with conventional thermal schemes or embrace geothermal supply.
􀂃 We expect Indonesian power generation to reach 184.2 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2012, up 8.0%
on the previous year. Thermal generation is expected to have risen by 8.13% year-on-year (y-oy)
thanks largely to an assumed 9.54% increase in coal-fired power. Oil-fired and gas-fired
generation are expected to register growth of 6.35% and 7.5%, respectively.
􀂃 During the period 2012-2021, Indonesia’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an
average of 7.32% y-o-y, reaching 348TWh. Driving this growth are average annual gains of
about 7.73% in coal-fired and 13.9% in non-hydro renewables generation, augmenting average
increases of about 5.55% and 7.35% in the use of oil- and gas-fired electricity supply
respectively.
􀂃 Indonesia is adding about 10,000MW of standing electrical capacity generation to support strong
domestic economic growth, with around 60% of capacity expected to be online in 2012. PLN
currently controls 28.3 megawatts (MW) of installed generating capacity, or about 85% of the
country’s total.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Indonesia Power SWOT . 6
Global Industry Overview 7
Regional Industry Overview . 14
Industry Forecast Scenario 19
Indonesia Snapshot (Macro) 19
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data 19
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 19
Indonesia Forecast Scenario 20
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity . 20
Table: Indonesia Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008 - 2016 20
Table: Indonesia Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 22
Table: Indonesia Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008 - 2016 . 24
Table: Indonesia Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 25
Electricity Consumption 34
Table: Indonesia Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008 - 2016 34
Table: Indonesia Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 34
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 36
Table: Indonesia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008 - 2016 36
Table: Indonesia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts,2013 - 2021 . 36
Table: Indonesia Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008 - 2016 . 36
Table: Indonesia Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2013 -2021 36
Key Policies/Market Structure 39
Regulation and Competition 39
Key Projects Database . 40
Major Projects Table . 40
Table: Major Projects – Power Plants & Transmission Grids 40
Power Risk/Reward Ratings . 47
Asia Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings 47
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 52
Indonesia Power Risk/Reward Ratings . 53
Rewards . 53
Risks 53
Competitive Landscape 54
Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) . 55
Glossary of Terms . 58
Table: Glossary of Terms 58
Methodology and Sources . 59
Industry Forecasts 59
Power Industry – Data Methodology 60
Generation and Consumption Data 60
Electricity Generation Capacity Data . 61
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology . 61
Indonesia Power Report Q3 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 63
Sources 64Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Table: Indonesia Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts
Table: Indonesia Total Electricity Generation LongTerm Forecasts
Table: Indonesia Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts
Table: Indonesia Electricity Generating Capacity LongTerm Forecasts
Table: Indonesia Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts
Table: Indonesia Total Electricity Consumption LongTerm Forecasts
Table: Indonesia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts
Table: Indonesia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses LongTerm Forecasts
Table: Indonesia Trade Data And Forecasts
Table: Indonesia Trade LongTerm Forecasts
Table: Major Projects – Power Plants & Transmission Grids
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of )
Table: Glossary of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators

Indonesia Power Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

Price:

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