Hungary Power Report Q3 2012

Published : August 2012
No. of Pages : 56

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BMI View: Hungary is faced with modest power demand growth, relatively high electricity pricing and
some tough decisions over the timing and type of supply expansion programme it is to implement. It
harbours long-term ambitions to export surplus power to Germany, but this requires an early decision on
nuclear capacity investment. The life of existing reactors looks set to be extended, but new units are
almost certain to be added. A concerted effort is also underway to enlarge the country’s renewables
capability, but progress is slow relative to the country’s European peers.
While renewables are also a core part of power supply growth, Hungary accepts that the expansion of
wind and solar alone will not be enough to meet rising demand, with nuclear the only realistic low-carbon
option available to state generator MVM. It has been estimated by the government that 9 gigawatts (GW)
of installed capacity will need to be added by 2025, and that nuclear will account for the single biggest
addition.
Key trends and recent developments in the Hungarian electricity market include:
􀂃 The likely average annual growth rate for Hungarian power consumption is just 1.14% between
2012 and 2021. This reflects the relative maturity of the energy market. Growth in power
generation over the next ten years could exceed 1.5% per annum, allowing for a gradual
reduction in import dependency. Continuing expansion of supply above the rate of demand
growth could ultimately deliver the country’s desired export potential.
􀂃 The time taken to connect wind farms to the grid, and the high costs of doing so, are the main
barriers to wind energy development in Hungary according the European Wind Energy
Association (EWEA) and the Hungarian Wind Energy Association (HuWEA). EWEA and
HuWEA would like to see at least 1.2GW installed by 2020, which would provide about 5% of
Hungary’s electricity demand.
􀂃 According to BMI forecasts, non-hydro renewables generation should reach almost 5.9TWh by
2021. Within this total, wind power is put at 1.1TWh by the end of the forecast period. These
figures fall short of government targets, but a revision of policy would clearly accelerate growth
in renewables use.
􀂃 Power prices are relatively high when compared with those available in the country’s European
peers. November 2011 data, for example, show that household customers were paying around
16% more than equivalent users in the Czech Republic. Hungarian prices are significantly below
those of Germany, providing support for long-term export plans.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Hungary Power SWOT 6
Global Industry Overview 7
Regional Overview . 14
Industry Forecast Scenario 19
Hungary Snapshot (Macro) 19
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data 19
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 19
Hungary Forecast Scenario . 19
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity 19
Table: Hungary Total Electricity Generation – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 19
Table: Hungary Total Electricity Generation Long Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 22
Table: Hungary Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2009 - 2016 . 24
Table: Hungary Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 . 25
Electricity Consumption 29
Table: Hungary Total Electricity Consumption – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 29
Table: Hungary Total Electricity Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 29
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 30
Table: Hungary Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 30
Table: Hungary Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 30
Table: Hungary Trade Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016 . 31
Table: Hungary Trade Long Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021 . 31
Key Policies/Market Structure 33
Regulation and Competition 33
Pricing 34
Table: Electricity Prices In the EU Member States, As Of November 2011 34
Key Projects Database . 35
Major Projects Table . 35
Table: Major Projects – Power Plants & Transmission Grids 35
Risk/Reward Ratings 37
Central and Eastern Europe Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings . 37
Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) . 39
Hungary’s Power Risk/Reward Ratings . 41
Rewards . 41
Risks 42
Competitive Landscape 43
MVM . 43
MAVIR 43
MOL 43
EdF 44
E.ON . 44
RWE 44
Electrabel. 45
AES 45
Hungary Power Report Q3 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Company Profiles 46
MVM . 46
Glossary of Terms . 49
Table: Glossary of Terms 49
Methodology and Sources . 50
Industry Forecasts 50
Power Industry – Data Methodology 51
Generation and Consumption Data 51
Electricity Generation Capacity Data . 52
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology . 52
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 54
Sources 55Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Table: Hungary Total Electricity Generation – Historical Data And Forecasts
Table: Hungary Total Electricity Generation Long Term Forecasts
Table: Hungary Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts
Table: Hungary Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts
Table: Hungary Total Electricity Consumption – Historical Data And Forecasts
Table: Hungary Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses – Historical Data And Forecasts
Table: Hungary Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses – LongTerm Forecasts
Table: Hungary Trade Data And Forecasts
Table: Hungary Trade Long Term Forecasts
Table: Electricity Prices In the EU Member States As Of November
Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of )
Table: Glossary of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators

Hungary Power Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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