Finland Telecommunications report Q3 2012

Published : August 2012
No. of Pages : 98

Price:

BMI''s Finland Telecommunications Market Report update for Q312 analyses the latest trends and
developments in the country’s mobile, fixed-line, broadband and pay-TV markets. It draws on operator
data for all four markets, covering the period to the end of March 2012. It also draws on the latest data
from the regulator, FICORA, which covers the mobile, fixed-line and broadband markets for 2011. The
report also contains news and analysis of product and regulatory developments impacting the market.
Finland’s telecommunications market is highly developed with high penetration rates and strong
competition between operators and different technologies. As in markets across Western Europe,
operators are facing the challenge of revenue erosion from a number of regulatory factors in the context
of limited subscriber acquisition opportunities. Mobile operators'' revenue declined as a result of price
competition, while cuts to mobile termination rates have also contributed, with cuts in December 2011
and further cuts scheduled for December 2012.
Meanwhile, wireline operators are facing intense competition from mobile broadband services, leading to
slowing growth rates. This threat is set to intensify with the acceleration of the 800MHz spectrum auction
process announced in April 2012 – spectrum that is allocated to 4G networks – with the auction in early
2013. The ministry’s goal is to see 4G networks available to everyone in mainland Finland by 2019. Sub-
1GHz spectrum is more cost-effective to cover rural areas compared to the 2.6GHz spectrum operators
are currently using for 4G LTE services, primarily in the largest urban areas. The ministry estimates that a
single 800MHz bas station can cover a geographical area five times larger than a 2.6GHz base station.
On the basis of operator data covering Q112 for the mobile, fixed-line and broadband market, and
regulatory data for 2011, BMI has made some minor revisions to our five-year forecasts to 2016. We
have downgraded our forecast for the mobile market on the basis of lower than expected growth in Q112
and the impact of macroeconomic conditions, largely stemming from the eurozone crisis. Meanwhile, our
ARPU forecast remains unchanged, with the December 2011 and December 2012 cuts to mobile
termination rates already factored into our forecast.
Newly available regulatory data for the fixed-line and broadband markets for 2011 has seen revisions to
BMI’s forecasts. FICORA data showed the fixed-line market to have declined faster than expected –
contracting by 13.6% in 2011 – although we maintain our medium-term view that the fixed-line decline
will decelerate as the momentum of fixed-to-mobile substitution wanes. The broadband market forecast
remained unchanged this quarter in terms of our underlying assumptions, but there was a minor
downward revision to YE11 data. We maintain our view that mobile broadband will continue to be the
driving force in the broadband market, with growth in fixed broadband provision stemming from
consumer demand for higher capacity connections.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 6
Finland Mobile SWOT Analysis 6
Finland Wireline SWOT Analysis . 7
Finland Political SWOT . 8
Finland Economic SWOT . 8
Risk/Reward Ratings 9
Western Europe . 9
Table: Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312 12
Finland 13
Industry Forecast Scenario 15
Mobile . 15
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts 15
Mobile ARPU . 17
Table: Telecoms Sector – Monthly Mobile ARPU (EUR) – Historical Data & Forecasts 17
Fixed Line 19
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed-Line – Historical Data & Forecasts 19
Internet 21
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts 21
Market Data Analysis 23
Mobile . 23
Operator Data . 25
Table: Finland Mobile Market, Q310-Q112 (''000) . 26
Table: Finland Subscriber Net Additions, Q310-Q112 (''000) . 26
ARPU 28
3G Services . 30
4G Services . 33
Mobile Network Investment . 35
Mobile Contract Wins 36
Table: Mobile Contract Wins . 36
Mobile Operator Data . 37
Table: Market Overview . 37
Table: TeliaSonera . 37
Table: Elisa 38
Table: DNA Finland 39
Mobile Content 40
Regional Outlook 40
Table: Smart Meter Race Is On 44
Country Outlook 44
Value-Added Services Timeline. 48
Table: Selected VAS Services . 48
Fixed Line 49
Internet 52
Table: Growth Of Fixed Broadband Market By Type Of Connection, 2009-2011 (‘000) . 53
Finland Telecommunications Report Q3 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Other Developments 55
FTTH 56
IPTV . 56
WiMAX 58
Wireline Contract Wins 59
Table: Wireline Contract Wins . 59
Regulatory Environment 60
Overview 60
Table: Finland: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 60
Legislation 61
Interconnection And Access . 62
Recent Developments . 62
Wholesale Broadband Pricing 63
Competitive Landscape 65
Market Overview 65
Key Players . 65
Table: Key Players: Finland Telecoms Sector 65
Company Monitor . 66
Company Profiles . 70
TeliaSonera Finland 70
Elisa Corporation . 74
DNA 79
Finnet Group . 83
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview 85
Fixed Line 85
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview . 85
Internet 86
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview 86
Mobile . 87
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 87
Table; Finland''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) . 89
Table: Finland''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 89
Table: Finland''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 90
Table: Finland''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 92
BMI Methodology . 93
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 93
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts . 93
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings . 95
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 95
Table: Ratings Indicators . 96
Weighting . 97
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 97
Sources 97Table: Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings Q
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Telecoms Sector – Monthly Mobile ARPU (EUR) – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Telecoms Sector – FixedLine – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Finland Mobile Market QQ ('')
Table: Finland Subscriber Net Additions QQ ('')
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Market Overview
Table: TeliaSonera
Table: Elisa
Table: DNA Finland
Table: Smart Meter Race Is On
Table: Selected VAS Services
Table: Growth Of Fixed Broadband Market By Type Of Connection (‘)
Table: Wireline Contract Wins
Table: Finland: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Table: Key Players: Finland Telecoms Sector
Table: Regional FixedLine Penetration Overview
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Table; Finland''s Population By Age Group ('')
Table: Finland''s Population By Age Group (% of total)
Table: Finland''s Key Population Ratios
Table: Finland''s Rural And Urban Population
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Table: Ratings Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

Finland Telecommunications report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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