Cambodia and Laos Telecommunications Report Q3 2012

Published : August 2012
No. of Pages : 100

Price:

BMI’s Q312 report on the telecoms market of Cambodia and Laos provides a comprehensive overview of
the latest developments to occur within the mobile, fixed-line telephony and internet sectors of these two
countries. Subscriber data for Cambodia and Laos are hard to come by, but Russia’s VimpelCom
publishes data on the number of subscribers and ARPU level for its operations in both countries. While
the authorities also provide some subscriber data, we have our doubts about their reliability and accuracy.
There were no changes to our subscriber expectations for Cambodia and Laos, but we have adjusted the
forecast scenarios for their ARPU levels in light of new data. In Laos we envisage the average ARPU to
decrease to US$2.8 in 2016. This is in spite of an agreement between operators to maintain a minimum
call tariff rate of LAK800 a minute.
Swedish incumbent TeliaSonera announced in April 2012 that it will exit the Cambodian mobile market
by selling its 18.6% stake in Smart Mobile. If the Swedish operator, which has operations across many
difficult markets, does not choose to remain in the Cambodian market, then what prospects are there for
other players? BMI believes Cambodia does offer continued opportunities for a smaller group of
operators, rather than the eight that had been present. We continue to expect consolidation in the market,
leaving a smaller number of larger players that are more able to compete.
Laos’ Ministry of Post and Telecommunications announced that 80% of villages in the country will have
mobile coverage by end-2012, up from 76% in 2011. The ministry plans to increase the number of base
stations to 6,684 by building an additional 300 by end of 2012, thereby enabling people in 7,300 out of
the country’s 9,119 villages to access a mobile signal. Additionally, a total of 130 out of 143 districts
nationwide will gain access to 3G connectivity, up by 15 districts from 2011.
Cambodia and Laos were ranked 15th and 17th respectively in BMI’s Asia Pacific Telecoms
Risk/Reward Ratings. We see encouraging signs in Vientiane''s economic and trade policy reforms to date
and maintain a relatively sanguine long-term growth outlook on the economy. It has made significant
headway in its efforts to gain ascension into the World Trade Organization and is likely to gain
membership by the end of this year. That said, the lack of access to credit by smaller businesses and the
purported lack of the flow-on effects from investments to the local community may lead to inequitable
growth in Laos'' economy, which may in turn hamper its longer-term growth prospects.
Meanwhile, Vietnamese investment in Cambodia is booming, particularly in the mining and rubber
sectors, and we expect to see greater bilateral trade and investment linkages over the coming years.
However, with Vietnam''s real GDP growth expected to remain subdued at 5.8% in 2012, we remain
comfortable forecasting Cambodia''s real GDP growth to come in at just 4.8% in 2012 ( from an estimated
6.3% in 2011), which is below the IMF''s 6.5% forecast.

Executive Summary . 7
SWOT Analysis . 8
Cambodia And Laos Mobile SWOT . 8
Cambodia And Laos Wireline SWOT 9
Risk/Reward Ratings 10
Asia Pacific . 10
Table: Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings 15
Cambodia 15
Laos 16
Industry Forecast Scenario 18
Mobile . 18
Cambodia 18
Table: Cambodia Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 18
ARPU 20
Table: Cambodia Telecoms Sector – Mobile ARPU (US$) – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 20
Laos 21
Table: Laos Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 21
ARPU 23
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile ARPU (US$) – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 23
Fixed Line 25
Cambodia 25
Table: Cambodia Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016. 25
Laos 27
Table: Laos Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 27
Internet 29
Cambodia 29
Table: Cambodia Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 29
Laos 31
Table: Laos Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 31
Market Data Analysis 33
Mobile . 33
Cambodia 33
Mobile Market Share . 34
Table: Cambodia Mobile Market (March 2012) 36
3G 36
Laos 39
Table: Laos Mobile Subscriber Growth 39
Table: Lao Telecommunications (LTC) Subscriber Mix 40
3G 42
Mobile Contract Wins 43
Table: Mobile Contract Wins . 43
Mobile Content 44
Regional Outlook 44
Selected NFC Developments, 2011 46
Cambodia 50
Cambodia and Laos Telecommunications Report Q3 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Laos 51
Value-Added Services Timeline . 51
Table: Selected VAS Services . 51
Fixed Line 52
Cambodia 52
Laos 54
Internet 56
Cambodia 56
Laos 60
Wireline Contract Wins 62
Table: Wireline Contract Wins . 62
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments 63
Cambodia 63
Laos 64
Industry Developments. 64
Cambodia 64
Laos 67
Competitive Landscape 69
Key Players . 69
Table: Key Players – Cambodia Telecoms Sector 69
Table: Key Players – Laos Telecoms Sector . 69
Company Monitor . 70
Samsung Electronics 70
Table: Samsung Electronics Financial Performance (KRWbn) 70
Company Profiles . 75
Telecom Cambodia . 75
Mobitel (CamGSM). 78
Lao Telecommunications (LTC) 80
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview 83
Fixed Line 83
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview . 83
Mobile . 84
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 84
Broadband 85
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview 85
Country Snapshot: Cambodia Demographic Data 86
Section 1: Population . 86
Source: UN Population Division. 86
Table: Demographic Indicators 86
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown . 87
Section 2: Education & Healthcare . 87
Table: Education 87
Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics . 87
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 88
Table: Employment Indicators 88
Table: Consumption And Stratification . 88
Table: Wages Per Year 89
Cambodia and Laos Telecommunications Report Q3 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 5
Demographic Outlook . 90
Table: Cambodia''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) 91
Table: Cambodia''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 91
Table: Cambodia''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 92
Table: Cambodia''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 92
Glossary Of Terms . 94
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 94
BMI Methodology . 95
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 95
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts . 95
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings . 97
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 97
Table: Ratings Indicators . 98
Weighting . 99
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 99
Sources 99Table: Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Cambodia Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Cambodia Telecoms Sector – Mobile ARPU (US$) – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Laos Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile ARPU (US$) – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Cambodia Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Laos Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Cambodia Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Laos Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Cambodia Mobile Market (March )
Table: Laos Mobile Subscriber Growth
Table: Lao Telecommunications (LTC) Subscriber Mix
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Selected VAS Services
Table: Wireline Contract Wins
Table: Key Players – Cambodia Telecoms Sector
Table: Key Players – Laos Telecoms Sector
Table: Samsung Electronics Financial Performance (KRWbn)
Table: Regional FixedLine Penetration Overview
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Table: Demographic Indicators
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown
Table: Education
Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics
Table: Employment Indicators
Table: Consumption And Stratification
Table: Wages Per Year
Table: Cambodia''s Population By Age Group ('')
Table: Cambodia''s Population By Age Group (% of total)
Table: Cambodia''s Key Population Ratios
Table: Cambodia''s Rural And Urban Population
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Table: Ratings Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

Cambodia and Laos Telecommunications Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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