1 Introduction
1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. SDI Terrorism Index
1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence (www.strategicdefenceintelligence.com)
2 Executive Summary
3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.1.1. Ukrainian defense expenditure expected to record a CAGR of XX% during the forecast period
3.1.2. Tensions with Russia, acquisition of new military hardware systems and participation in peacekeeping missions expected to drive Ukrainian defense expenditure
3.1.3. Defense expenditure expected to be XX% of GDP by 2017
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1. Capital expenditure allocation of overall defense budget expected to witness an increase during the forecast period
3.2.2. The Ukrainian Air Force accounts for the majority of the country''s defense expenditure
3.2.3. Ukrainian Army expenditure expected to register a CAGR of XX% during the forecast period
3.2.4. Ukrainian Navy allocation of overall defense budget expected to increase
3.2.5. Ukraine expected to invest US$XX billion in its air force over the forecast period
3.2.6. DSU expenditure projected to record a CAGR of XX% over the forecast period
3.2.7. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1. Homeland security expenditure expected to record a CAGR of XX% during the forecast period
3.3.2. Ukraine considered at ''some risk'' of terrorist attack
3.3.3. Organized crime, maritime security threats and ethnic tensions expected to encourage investment in the procurement of homeland security equipment
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1. During the forecast period, Ukraine is expected to continue to exercise limited influence in the international arms market
3.4.2. Ukrainian military expenditure is limited compared to world''s leading defense spenders
3.4.3. In comparison with the world''s leading defense spenders, Ukrainian defense expenditure, as a percentage of GDP, is moderate
3.4.4. According to the SDI Terrorism Index, Ukraine faces some risk of terrorist threat
3.4.5. During the review period, Ukraine was the world''s XX-largest arms exporter
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Drivers
3.5.1. Maritime defense equipment expected to experience increased demand in the forecast period
3.5.2. Market opportunities for air defense systems expected to increase
3.5.3. Border security and critical infrastructure protection equipment will experience increased demand
3.5.4. Armed Forces modernization and procurement to drive demand during forecast period
4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. A relatively small defense budget limits Ukraine''s defense imports
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. Ukrainian arms exports declined during 2007-2011
4.2.2. The Ukrainian defense industry has a diverse consumer base
4.2.3. The majority of Ukrainian defense exports consist of aircraft and armored vehicles
5 Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: low to high
5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: low
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: high
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: low to high
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: high
6 Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Market Regulation
6.1.1. Ukraine follows prohibitive defense industry FDI policy
6.2. Market Entry Route
6.2.1. Joint development of defense goods provides investors with a market entry opportunity
6.2.2. Foreign investors can enter the industry through direct sales
6.3. Key Challenges
6.3.1. Small defense budget offers equipment manufacturers limited investment potential
6.3.2. Lack of necessary infrastructure impedes growth of domestic defense industry
6.3.3. Corruption and a lack of transparency discourages investors from entering the market
7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
7.2. Key Public Sector Companies
7.2.1. Antonov ASTC: overview
7.2.2. Antonov ASTC: products and services
7.2.3. Antonov ASTC: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.4. Antonov ASTC: alliances
7.2.5. Antonov ASTC: recent contract wins
7.2.6. RPC Fort: overview
7.2.7. RPC Fort: products and services
7.2.8. RPC Fort: alliances
7.2.9. RPC Fort: recent contract wins
7.2.10. KMDB: overview
7.2.11. KMDB: products and services
7.2.12. KMDB: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.13. KMDB: alliances
7.2.14. KMDB: recent contract wins
7.2.15. Malyshev Plant: overview
7.2.16. Malyshev Plant: products and services
7.2.17. Malyshev Plant: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.18. Malyshev Plant: recent contract wins
7.2.19. AvtoKrAZ Holding Company: overview
7.2.20. AvtoKrAZ Holding Company: products and services
7.2.21. AvtoKrAZ Holding Company: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.22. AvtoKrAZ Holding Company: recent contract wins
7.2.23. Motor Sich: overview
7.2.24. Motor Sich: products and services
7.2.25. Motor Sich: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.26. Motor Sich: alliances
7.2.27. Motor Sich: recent contract wins
7.2.28. Motor Sich: financial analysis
7.2.29. Aviant State Enterprise Kyiv Aviation Plant: overview
7.2.30. Aviant State Enterprise Kyiv Aviation Plant: products and services
7.2.31. Aviant State Enterprise Kyiv Aviation Plant: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.32. Aviant State Enterprise Kyiv Aviation Plant: alliances
7.2.33. Aviant State Enterprise Kyiv Aviation Plant: recent contract wins
8 Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1. Demographics and Social Statistics
8.1.1. Population - Female
8.1.2. Population - Male
8.2. Economic Performance
8.2.1. Construction Output, Current Prices, Local Currency
8.2.2. Construction Output, Current Prices, US Dollars
8.2.3. Current Account Balance as Percentage of GDP
8.2.4. Debt-Service Ratio
8.2.5. Deposit Interest Rate
8.2.6. Exports of goods and services, current prices
8.2.7. External debt as a percentage of GDP
8.2.8. Fiscal Balance as a percentage of GDP
8.2.9. Foreign Direct Investment
8.2.10. GDP at Purchasing Power Parity
8.2.11. GDP, Constant Prices (Local Currency)
8.2.12. GDP, Constant Prices (US$)
8.2.13. GDP, Current Prices (Local Currency)
8.2.14. GDP, Current Prices (US$ billions)
8.2.15. General Government Final Consumption Expenditure
8.2.16. Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Current Prices
8.2.17. Imports of goods and services
8.2.18. Inflation, average consumer prices
8.2.19. Interest Rate (Lending)
8.2.20. Manufacturing Output, Current Prices (Local Currency Bn)
8.2.21. Manufacturing Output, Current Prices (US$ Billions)
8.2.22. US$- Exchange Rate (Annual Average)
8.2.23. US$- Exchange Rate (EoP)
8.3. Energy and Utilities
8.3.1. Crude Oil Distillation Capacity
8.3.2. Electricity Exports
8.3.3. Electricity Imports
8.3.4. Electricity Installed Capacity
8.3.5. Fossil fuels proved natural gas reserves
8.3.6. Fossil fuels proved oil reserves
8.3.7. Hydroelectricity installed capacity
8.3.8. Natural gas consumption
8.3.9. Natural gas imports
8.3.10. Natural gas production
8.3.11. Net Conventional Thermal Electricity Generation
8.3.12. Net Geothermal, Solar, Wind, and Wood Electric Power Generation
8.3.13. Net Hydroelectric power generation
8.3.14. Nuclear electricity net generation
8.3.15. Petroleum consumption
8.3.16. Petroleum production
8.4. Minerals
8.4.1. Coal consumption
8.4.2. Coal production
8.5. Social and Political Risk
8.5.1. Political Stability Index
8.5.2. Transparency Index
8.6. Technology
8.6.1. Gross domestic expenditure on research and development as % of GDP
8.6.2. Patents granted
9 Appendix
9.1. Contact Us
9.2. About SDI
9.3. Disclaimer
Table 1: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure, 2008-2012
Table 2: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure, 2013-2017
Table 3: Ukrainian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2008-2012
Table 4: Ukrainian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2013-2017
Table 5: Ukrainian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue expenditure (%), 2008-2012
Table 6: Ukrainian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue expenditure (%), 2013-2017
Table 7: Ukrainian Defense Budget Breakdown (%), 2008-2012
Table 8: Ukrainian Defense Budget Breakdown (%), 2013-2017
Table 9: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Army (US$ Billion), 2008-2012
Table 10: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Army (US$ Billion), 2013-2017
Table 11: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Navy (US$ Billion), 2008-2012
Table 12: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Navy (US$ Billion), 2013-2017
Table 13: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Air Force (US$ Billion), 2008-2012
Table 14: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Air Force (US$ Billion), 2013-2017
Table 15: Ukrainian Other Categories Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), 2008-2012
Table 16: Ukrainian Other Categories Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), 2013-2017
Table 17: Ukrainian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2008-2012
Table 18: Ukrainian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2013-2017
Table 19: Ukrainian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2008-2012
Table 20: Ukrainian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2013-2017
Table 21: Benchmarking with Key Markets, 2007-2011 vs. 2012-2016
Table 22: SDI Terrorism Index
Table 23: Top Country Ranking by Arms Exports, 2007-2011*
Table 24: Competitive Landscape of the Ukrainian Defense Industry
Table 25: Antonov ASTC - Products and Services
Table 26: Antonov ASTC - Alliances
Table 27: Antonov ASTC - Recent Contract Wins
Table 28: RPC Fort - Products and Services
Table 29: RPC Fort - Alliances
Table 30: RPC Fort - Recent Contract Wins
Table 31: KMDB - Products and Services
Table 32: KMDB - Recent Contract Wins
Table 33: Malyshev Plant - Products and Services
Table 34: Malyshev Plant - Recent Contract Wins
Table 35: AvtoKrAZ Holding Company - Products and Services
Table 36: AvtoKrAZ Holding Company - Recent Contract Wins
Table 37: Motor Sich - Products and Services
Table 38: Motor Sich - Alliances
Table 39: Motor Sich - Recent Contract Wins
Table 40: Aviant State Enterprise Kyiv Aviation Plant - Products and Services
Table 41: Aviant State Enterprise Kyiv Aviation Plant - Alliances
Table 42: Aviant State Enterprise Kyiv Aviation Plant - Recent Contract Wins
Figure 1: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure, 2008-2012
Figure 2: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure, 2013-2017
Figure 3: Ukrainian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2008-2012
Figure 4: Ukrainian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2013-2017
Figure 5: Ukrainian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue expenditure (%), 2008-2012
Figure 6: Ukrainian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue expenditure (%), 2013-2017
Figure 7: Ukrainian Defense Budget Breakdown (%), 2008-2012
Figure 8: Ukrainian Defense Budget Breakdown (%),2013-2017
Figure 9: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Army (US$ Billion), 2008-2012
Figure 10: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Army (US$ Billion), 2013-2017
Figure 11: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Navy (US$ Billion), 2008-2012
Figure 12: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Navy (US$ Billion), 2013-2017
Figure 13: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Air Force (US$ Billion), 2008-2012
Figure 14: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Air Force (US$ Billion), 2013-2017
Figure 15: Ukrainian Other Categories Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), 2008-2012
Figure 16: Ukrainian Other Categories Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), 2013-2017
Figure 17: Ukrainian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2008-2012
Figure 18: Ukrainian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2013-2017
Figure 19: Ukrainian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2008-2012
Figure 20: Ukrainian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2013-2017
Figure 21: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2011
Figure 22: SDI Terrorism Index, 2011
Figure 23: Benchmarking with Key Markets, 2007-2011 vs. 2012-2016
Figure 24: Benchmarking with World''s Largest Defense Spenders (US$ Billion), 2011 and 2016
Figure 25: Benchmarking with Large Defense Spenders as % of GDP - 2011
Figure 26: Ukrainian Arms Exports Trend, 2007-2011 (TIV values)
Figure 27: Ukrainian Defense Exports by Country (%), 2007-2011
Figure 28: Ukrainian Defense Exports by Weapons Category (%), 2007-2011
Figure 29: Industry Dynamics - Porter''s Five Forces Analysis
Figure 30: Motor Sich: Revenue Trend Analysis (UAH Billion), 2006-2010
Figure 31: Motor Sich: Net Profit Trend Analysis (UAH Million) , 2006-2010
Figure 32: Ukrainian Population - Female (In Millions), 2008-2017
Figure 33: Ukrainian Population - Male (In Millions), 2008-2017
Figure 34: Ukrainian Construction Output, Current Prices, Local Currency (In Billions), 2001-2010
Figure 35: Ukrainian Construction Output, Current Prices, US Dollars (In Billions), 2001-2010
Figure 36: Ukrainian Current Account Balance as Percentage of GDP, 2008-2017
Figure 37: Ukrainian Debt-Service Ratio, 2001-2010
Figure 38: Ukrainian Deposit Interest Rate, 2001-2010
Figure 39: Ukrainian Exports of goods and services, current prices (US$ Billion), 2001- 2010
Figure 40: Ukrainian External Debt as a Percentage of GDP, 2001-2010
Figure 41: Ukrainian Fiscal Balance as a percentage of GDP, 2001-2010
Figure 42: Ukrainian Foreign Direct Investment (US$ Billion), 2001-2010
Figure 43: Ukrainian GDP at Purchasing Power Parity (US$ Billion), 2006-2015
Figure 44: Ukrainian GDP at Constant Prices (Local Currency Billion), 2006-2015
Figure 45: Ukrainian GDP at Constant Prices (US$ Billion), 2006-2015
Figure 46: Ukrainian GDP at Current Prices (Local Currency Billion), 2006-2015
Figure 47: Ukrainian GDP at Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2006-2015
Figure 48: Ukrainian General Government Final Consumption Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2001-2010
Figure 49: Ukrainian Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2001-2010
Figure 50: Ukrainian Imports of Goods and Services (Current US$ Billion), 2001-2010
Figure 51: Ukrainian Inflation, Average Consumer Prices, 2008-2017
Figure 52: Ukrainian Interest Rate Lending, 2001-2010
Figure 53: Ukrainian Manufacturing Output, Current Prices (Local Currency Billion), 2001-2010
Figure 54: Ukrainian Manufacturing Output, Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2001-2010
Figure 55: Ukrainian US$- Exchange Rate (Annual Average), 2002-2011
Figure 56: Ukrainian US$- Exchange Rate (EoP), 2002-2011
Figure 57: Ukrainian Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2000-2009
Figure 58: Ukrainian Electricity Exports (Million Kilowatts), 2001-2009
Figure 59: Ukrainian Electricity Imports (Million Kilowatts), 2001-2009
Figure 60: Ukrainian Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts), 2000-2009
Figure 61: Ukrainian Fossil Fuels Proved Natural Gas Reserves (Trillion Cubic Feet), 2002-2011
Figure 62: Ukrainian Fossil Fuels Proved Oil Reserves (Billion Barrels), 2002-2011
Figure 63: Ukrainian Hydroelectricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts), 2000-2009
Figure 64: Ukrainian Natural Gas Consumption (Billion Cubic Feet), 2001-2010
Figure 65: Ukrainian Natural Gas Imports (Billion Cubic Feet), 2001-2010
Figure 66: Ukrainian Natural Gas Production (Billion Cubic Feet), 2001-2010
Figure 67: Ukrainian Net Conventional Thermal Electricity Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2001-2010
Figure 68: Ukrainian Net Geothermal, Solar, Wind, and Wood Electric Power Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2001-2010
Figure 69: Ukrainian Net Hydroelectric Power Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2001-2010
Figure 70: Ukrainian Nuclear Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2001-2010
Figure 71: Ukrainian Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2002-2011
Figure 72: Ukrainian Petroleum Production (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2002-2011
Figure 73: Ukrainian Coal Consumption (Thousand Short Tons), 2001-2010
Figure 74: Ukrainian Coal Production (Thousand Short Tons), 2001-2010
Figure 75: Ukrainian Political Stability Index, 2002-2010
Figure 76: Ukrainian Transparency Index, 2002-2011
Figure 77: Gross Domestic Expenditure on Research and Development as % of GDP, 2000-2009
Figure 78: Patents Granted, 2002-2011