China Metals Report Q3 2012

Published : July 2012
No. of Pages : 64

Price:

From 2012 to 2016 the metals industry in China will be facing a period of steady declines in demand and supply growth. On the demand side, we are expecting a sharp slowdown in Chinese fixed asset investments that will see a softening in demand across the metals. We expect construction activity in China to moderate significantly in 2012 – we forecast real sector growth of 5% y-o-y compared to 7.8% in 2011 – which will have a notable impact on demand given the commodity-intensive nature of the industry. At the heart of this slowdown are the government''s measures to curb real estate investment. Both official and private sector data point to a deceleration in investment in residential construction in 2011 and we expect this trend to continue into 2012 and 2013. Looking at supply, the 12th Non-Ferrous Industry Plan calls for curbing the metal output growth of the top 10 key metals to just 8% annually from 2011 to 2015. The 10 major non-ferrous metals include copper, aluminium, lead, zinc, nickel, stannum, antimony, mercury and titanium. The country has set a 2015 output target of 46mnt (million tonnes) for the 10. The country produced 32.2mnt of the 10 major metals in 2011, an increase of 10.6% y-o-y. Increasing Role Of State-Owned Companies China will curbing growth through consolidation of capacity and through implementation of stricter environmental standards. The government plans to have the top 10 smelters in the country account for 90% of copper and aluminium production and 60% of lead and zinc production by the end of the fiveyear plan. The larger state-owned players in the industry will likely be the beneficiaries of the plan as they will be the prime vehicles through which other assets, companies and smaller state-owned outfits will be absorbed. State-owned companies already have a dominant role in the mining and metals industry and will have an even larger share of the economic pie by 2015. Capacity cuts domestically are driven by both expected lower demand and a stronger environmental initiative. However, this does not erase the fact that for certain metals, such as iron ore and copper, China''s domestic production is not enough to supply domestic demand. As such, overseas acquisitions of foreign mining assets will continue to be a trend despite an overall desire to curb output growth. This means that across the metals that BMI forecasts, lower demand growth scenario will not necessarily be followed by proportionally lower production growth forecasts.

Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
China Business Environment SWOT 7
Industry Forecasts . 8
Steel: Investment Slowdown To Soften Demand 8
Table: China''s Steel Industry – Historical & Forecast Data 12
Table: China''s Steel Industry – Historical Data 12
Aluminium: Infrastructure Slowdown To Curb Consumption 13
Table: China''s Key Aluminium Projects 14
Table: China''s Aluminium Production 15
Table: China''s Aluminium Consumption . 17
Copper: Supply Deficit To Widen 17
Table: China''s Largest Refined Copper Projects 19
Table: China''s Refined Copper Production And Consumption 19
Tin: Consumption To Outpace Production . 20
Table: China''s Refined Tin Production 21
Table: China''s Refined Tin Consumption . 21
Nickel: Growth Continues, But At A Slower Pace 22
Table: China''s Nickel Production 23
Table: China''s Nickel Consumption 23
Lead: A Period Of Constrained Growth And Consolidation 24
Table: China''s Refined Lead Production . 25
Table: China''s Refined Lead Consumption, 2009-2016 26
Zinc: Weak Market Fundamentals Weigh On Growth 27
Table: China Refined Zinc Production 28
Table: China''s Refined Zinc Consumption 29
Macroeconomic Outlook 30
Expecting A Recession In All But Name . 30
Commodities Forecast 37
Steel To Average US$500/Tonne In 2012 37
Table: BMI''s Steel Forecasts 37
Table: Steel Products And Inputs – Price Data . 40
Monthly Metals Update 41
Table: Select Commodities – Performance & BMI Forecasts 49
Competitive Landscape . 50
Table: China – Comparative Metrics 52
Company Profiles . 53
Angang Steel Company 53
Table: Angang Steel – Financial Results . 55
Aluminum Corporation of China . 56
Table: Chalco – Financial Results 59
Baoshan Iron & Steel 60
Table: Baoshan Iron And Steel Financial Results . 62
BMI Methodology . 63
China Metals Report Q3 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 63
Cross Checks 63 Table: China''s Steel Industry – Historical & Forecast Data Table: China''s Steel Industry – Historical Data
Table: China''s Key Aluminium Projects
Table: China''s Aluminium Production
Table: China''s Aluminium Consumption
Table: China''s Largest Refined Copper Projects
Table: China''s Refined Copper Production And Consumption
Table: China''s Refined Tin Production
Table: China''s Refined Tin Consumption
Table: China''s Nickel Production Table: China''s Nickel Consumption
Table: China''s Refined Lead Production Table: China''s Refined Lead Consumption
Table: China Refined Zinc Production
Table: China''s Refined Zinc Consumption
Table: BMI''s Steel Forecasts
Table: Steel Products And Inputs – Price Data
Table: Select Commodities – Performance & BMI Forecasts
Table: China – Comparative Metrics Company Profiles
Table: Angang Steel – Financial Results
Table: Chalco – Financial Results
Table: Baoshan Iron And Steel Financial Results

China Metals Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

Price:

How to Purchase

Purchase products from our site in 5 easy steps. Please follow the description given below to complete your purchase process.

Step 1:

Select the report title of your interest, and Click on Buy Now button next to the Price option.

Step 2:

You will arrive at the Purchase page, where you will be requested to Signup (New User) or Login (Registered User). Please note that in-keeping with the security check on the website, you must submit your full details to avoid any inconvenience arising from incorrectly entered data or counterfeit information.

Step 3:

After SignUp/Login, you will arrive at the Online Invoice Page. Select a Payment option via various methods: Debit Card / Credit Card / by Invoice. MarketReportOnline accepts Visa, MasterCard, American Express and all major credit cards. MarketReportOnline uses ICICI, HDFC, Citibank, American Express & Paypal as our Online Payment Gateway Partners. Clicking on a payment option will take you to the corresponding Payment Gateway page.

Step 4:

Once at the Payment Gateway, please complete the Payment Process to purchase your desired report.

Step 5:

Once you have successfully completed the purchase process, you will receive a confirmation email. You will then either be able to download your report immediately (in PDF Format) from the Account Login button, or the report will be emailed to you directly, depending upon the agreement we have with the publisher. For Orders that are deliverable via email and placed after working hours, the delivery of the reports will be made on the next business day. Please note, if you select purchase by invoice, you will receive your report only once the payment has been received. If you have any queries about how to order, please Contact Us .

sales@marketreportsonline.com + 1 888 391 5441

Using our subscription option, you get access to market research reports and industry data of Industry Profiles market as per your needs. Get the best of Industry Profiles research reports by utilizing your research budgets in an optimum way.
More about our Subscription option

Get Email alerts about market research reports from industries and publishers of your interest: