Uzbekistan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012

Published : July 2012
No. of Pages : 71

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BMI View: Conventional gas deposits should enable the country to boost its output and exports, with some surplus gas destined for a Sasol-operated GTL scheme. Oil volumes may depend, however, on the utilisation of shale deposits and in this area the outlook is far less certain.
The main trends and developments in Uzbekistan’s oil & gas sector are: 􀂃 Uzbekistan has an estimated 340bn barrels (bbl) of oil shale deposits and Uzbekneftegaz plans to establish a US$600mn joint venture (JV) project that will convert the oil shale into petroleum products.
Production is due to start by 2013, with an anual capacity of 1mn tonnes of liquid hydrocarbons. 􀂃 With no early success having been registered in enhanced recovery, shale-based production and/or new field development, we believe crude oil supply – including lease condensate – will decline from an estimated 60,000 barrels-a-day (b/d) in 2011 to 54,240b/d by 2016 and 49,020 b/d by end-2021.
However, the delivery of additional gas liquids volumes, thanks to higher gas output, should more than compensate, pushing total liquids output back up to 118,000b/d in 2016 and 126,000b/d in 2021.
􀂃 In September 2011, South Africa’s Sasol signed an investment agreement with Petronas, Uzbekneftegaz and the Uzbek government for the development and implementation of a 30,000b/d gas-to-liquids (GTL) project in Uzbekistan. It is estimated that the total cost of the scheme will be around US$2.5bn.
􀂃 Our forecasts assume that gas output will increase from an estimated 65bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 to around 86bcm by 2016 and 105bcm by 2021, with growth continuing beyond that point as new fields enter production. Domestic demand is expected to rise from an estimated 47bcm to 60bcm over our 10-year forecast period, meaning that exports will reach just over 45bcm by 2021. Risk appears to be to the upside in terms of output, thanks to the combined efforts of domestic and international companies, plus infrastructure expansion and rising regional demand for Uzbek gas.
􀂃 Rising oil import costs are a growing concern. Uzbekistan paid an estimated US$1.65bn in 2011 for net imports, with this due to rise to US$5.81bn by 2021. Gas export revenues generated in 2021 are forecasted to come in at US$21.73bn. In terms of combined oil and gas revenues, we see the 2021 total standing at US$15.91bn, against an estimated US$8.05bn in 2011.
Uzbekistan’s dependence on energy prices leads to high volatility in the country’s export revenues. Our expectation of tight supply – due to booming demand in emerging markets – is clearly an opportunity for the country. As a result, we forecast that OPEC basket oil prices will increase from an estimated US$107.52 per barrel (bbl) in 2011 to US$111.47/bbl in 2012, thus creating an upside risk for the Uzbek macroeconomic outlook.

BMI Industry View . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Uzbekistan Oil and Gas SWOT 6
Global Energy Market Outlook 7
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) 8
Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) . 13
Regional Energy Market Outlook 14
Uzbekistan Energy Market Overview . 18
Table: Uzbekistan – Upstream Projects Database . 20
Industry Forecast Scenario 21
Oil And Gas Reserves 21
Table: Uzbekistan Oil & Gas Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 22
Table: Uzbekistan Oil & Gas Long-term Forecasts, 2014-2021 23
Oil Supply And Demand 24
Gas Supply And Demand . 24
Refining And Oil Products Trade 26
Revenues/Import Costs 26
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario . 26
Oil And Gas Infrastructure . 27
Oil Refineries 27
Table: Refineries in Uzbekistan 27
Oil Pipelines 28
GTL Plants 28
Gas Processing Plants 29
Gas Storage Facilities 29
Gas Pipelines 29
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings . 32
Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 34
Table: Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings . 36
Uzbekistan Upstream Rating – Overview 38
Uzbekistan Upstream Rating – Rewards . 38
Uzbekistan Upstream Rating – Risks 38
Uzbekistan Downstream Rating – Overview 38
Competitive Landscape 39
Executive Summary 39
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies . 40
Overview/State Role . 40
Licensing/Regulation 40
Government Policy 40
Licensing Rounds 41
International Energy Relations 41
China . 42
Kyrgyzstan 42
Tajikistan 43
Russia 43
EU 43
Table: Key Upstream Players 44
Table: Key Downstream Players . 44
Company Monitor 45
Uzbekneftegaz 45
Lukoil 48
Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC) – Summary 50
Petronas – Summary 50
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) – Summary 51
Tethys Petroleum – Summary 51
Sasol – Summary . 52
Oil Exploration Operations Company – Summary . 53
Zeromax – Summary 53
PetroVietnam – Summary 54
Central And Eastern Europe – Regional Appendix 55
Table: Oil Consumption, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) . 55
Table: Oil Consumption Long- Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) . 55
Table: Oil Production, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) . 56
Table: Oil Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 57
Table: Refining Capacity, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 57
Table: Refining Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) . 58
Table: Gas Consumption, 2009-2016 (bcm) 58
Table: Gas Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) . 59
Table: Gas Production, 2009-2016 (bcm) . 60
Table: Gas Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 61
Table: LNG Gas Exports, 2009-2016 (bcm) 61
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts . 62
Glossary Of Terms . 63
Table: Glossary Of Terms 63
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology . 65
Ratings Overview 65
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure . 66
Indicators 66
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology. 66
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology . 67
BMI Methodology 69
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 69
Energy Industry 69
Cross checks 70
Sources. 70Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) . 8

Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) . 13

Table: Uzbekistan – Upstream Projects Database . 20

Table: Uzbekistan Oil & Gas Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 22

Table: Uzbekistan Oil & Gas Long-term Forecasts, 2014-2021 . 23

Table: Refineries in Uzbekistan . 27

Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings . 34

Table: Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings . 36

Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies . 40

Table: Key Upstream Players . 44

Table: Key Downstream Players . 44

Table: Oil Consumption, 2009-2016 (''000b/d) . 55

Table: Oil Consumption Long- Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (''000b/d) . 55

Table: Oil Production, 2009-2016 (''000b/d) . 56

Table: Oil Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (''000b/d) . 57

Table: Refining Capacity, 2009-2016 (''000b/d) . 57

Table: Refining Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (''000b/d) . 58

Table: Gas Consumption, 2009-2016 (bcm) . 58

Table: Gas Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) . 59

Table: Gas Production, 2009-2016 (bcm) . 60

Table: Gas Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) . 61

Table: LNG Gas Exports, 2009-2016 (bcm) . 61

Table: Glossary Of Terms . 63

Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure . 66

Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology. 66

Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology . 67

Uzbekistan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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