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United Kingdom Real Estate Report Q3 2012

Published : 
No. of Pages : 61
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The United Kingdom Real Estate report examines the Commercial Office, Retail, Industrial and Construction segments. With a focus on the principal cities of London, Manchester and Glasgow, the report covers the rental market performance in terms of rates and yields over the past 18 months and examines how best to maximise returns in the commercial real estate market, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impact of a variety of factors weighing heavily on the UK’s real estate market.
The commercial sector is under pressure as a result of the country’s economic woes, though it has remained more stable than might be expected. Activity in commercial property has been very slow as businesses and landlords watch and wait for signs of economic recovery.
The office space sub-sector is a stable element of the segment, with office space in central London experiencing a healthy run of growth. This now looks to be slowing, but we expect growth to remain positive, as the capital has limited scope for new development and demand has moved faster than new supply. New retail developments (larger shopping malls) and fierce competition for high-end retail space in central London are the key growth areas, with other retail spaces as well as industrial and office spaces showing slower growth rates in the face of broader economic weakness in the UK.
High-end retail in the London market is the clear outperformer in the UK real estate sector, as a constant flow of foreign shoppers and tourists support this segment despite weak macroeconomic fundamentals.
Outside central London, large shopping centres continue to open across the UK, creating new supply and attracting tenants and footfall, although ‘high street’ retail will suffer as a result. The office and industrial segments, however, will remain under pressure, despite some high-profile deal making, as a result of weak economic growth, tight credit and job losses in the private and public sectors undercutting demand for new business rental space.
Key Points 􀂃 Going by the official data published by the Office for National Statistics, the UK economy is back in recession. However, we believe this prognosis could prove premature, with the economy potentially skirting a soft patch rather than returning to negative growth.
􀂃 Construction output is estimated to have fallen by 3.0% quarter-on-quarter from -0.2% in Q411 􀂃 The UK has become an unlikely safe haven amid the turmoil in the eurozone with its deep and liquid capital markets providing refuge for capital fleeing the currency union.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 6
UK Real Estate/Construction Industry SWOT 6
UK Political SWOT . 7
UK Economic SWOT . 8
UK Business Environment SWOT . 8
Real Estate Market Overview 9
Market Analysis – Office 11
Rents And Yields . 11
Table: Historic Rents, 2010-2011 (EUR per m2/month) . 11
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%) 11
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases – Mid 2011 11
Supply And Demand. 12
Industry Forecast Scenario 13
Table: Forecast Rents, (EUR per m2/month) 13
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%) 13
Market Analysis – Retail 14
Rents And Yields . 14
Table: Historic Rents, 2010-2011 (EUR per m2/month) . 14
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%) 14
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases – Mid 2011 14
Supply And Demand. 15
Industry Forecast Scenario 16
Table: Forecast Rents, (EUR per m2/month) 16
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%) 16
Market Analysis – Industrial 17
Rents And Yields . 17
Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (EUR per m2/month) 17
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%) 17
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases - Mid 2011 17
Supply And Demand. 18
Industry Forecast Scenario 19
Table: Forecast Rents - (EUR per m2/month) 19
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%) 19
Forecast Scenarios 20
Infrastructure Report . 20
Table: UK Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2007-2016 20
Table: UK Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2012-2021 21
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario . 23
Special Events: Olympic Games . 26
Macroeconomic Outlook 28
Table: United Kingdom - Economic Activity 30
Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings 31
Real Estate/Construction Risk/Reward Ratings 31
Table: Real Estate/Construction Risk/Reward Ratings 31
UK’s Business Environment 31
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings . 32
Institutions 32
Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating 33
Infrastructure . 34
Table: Labour Force Quality 37
Market Orientation 37
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings 38
Table: Top Export destinations 39
Operational Risk . 40
Competitive Landscape . 41
Company Profiles 46
A&J Mucklow Group 46
British Land 47
Hammerson . 49
Land Securities 50
SEGRO 52
Demographic Data 54
Table: The United Kingdom''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) 55
Table: The United Kingdom''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 56
Table: The United Kingdom''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 57
Table: The United Kingdom''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 57
BMI Methodology 58
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 58
Construction Industry . 59
Bank Lending . 60
Sources 60Table: Historic Rents, 2010-2011 (EUR per m2/month) . 11


Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%) . 11


Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases – Mid 2011 . 11


Table: Forecast Rents, (EUR per m2/month) . 13


Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%) . 13


Table: Historic Rents, 2010-2011 (EUR per m2/month) . 14


Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%) . 14


Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases – Mid 2011 . 14


Table: Forecast Rents, (EUR per m2/month) . 16


Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%) . 16


Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (EUR per m2/month) . 17


Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%) . 17


Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases - Mid 2011 . 17


Table: Forecast Rents - (EUR per m2/month). 19


Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%) . 19


Table: UK Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2007-2016. 20


Table: UK Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2012-2021. 21


Table: United Kingdom - Economic Activity . 30


Table: Real Estate/Construction Risk/Reward Ratings . 31


Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings . 32


Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating . 33


Table: Labour Force Quality . 37


Table: Trade And Investment Ratings . 38


Table: Top Export destinations . 39


Table: The United Kingdom''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) . 55


Table: The United Kingdom''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 56


Table: The United Kingdom''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 57


Table: The United Kingdom''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 57

United Kingdom Real Estate Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International
 

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