United Arab Emirates Retail Report Q3 2012

Published : July 2012
No. of Pages : 113

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The UAE Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on the UAE’s economic outlook of lacklustre growth in the private nonhydrocarbon sector because of weak credit conditions.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the UAE retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of increased tensions between Iran and the West on the Dubai consumer in particular and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the UAE retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
The UAE comes third (out of seven) in BMI’s MEA Retail risk/reward ratings (RRRs). Among all retail categories, over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by nearly 45% between 2012 and 2016, from US$0.28bn to US$0.40bn as new population and healthcare spending data provide more commercial opportunities for companies in the industry.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the government’s substantial investment in the healthcare sector, with large projects such as the Dubai Healthcare City and DuBiotech encouraging foreign direct investment (FDI).
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views: • Following an estimated rate of real GDP growth of 3.3% in 2011, BMI’s current projection sees the economy expanding 3.5% in 2012, before slowing slightly to 3.2% in 2013. Our core view on the UAE economy sees growth gradually ticking higher over the coming quarters, with elevated oil prices and improved consumer and business sentiment underpinning a steady expansion in real GDP.
• The outlook for household consumption has picked up in recent months, and BMI is now forecasting this to grow by 8.0% in 2012. In the first instance, monetary policy conditions will remain highly accommodative this year, as there is minimal likelihood of the US Federal Reserve beginning to hike interest rates any time soon (our US economists do not see rate hikes until 2014 at the earliest). More importantly, perhaps, household spending should be supported by recent government wage hikes, which have seen some public-sector employees'' salaries (particularly in the judiciary, health and education sectors) double. • According to the Statistics Centre – Abu Dhabi (SCAD), per capita income reached US$85,850 in 2010. As such, locals have significant spending power, and the emirate’s relatively young population are poised to ensure long-term growth for retail operators.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 7
UAE Retail Business Environment SWOT . 7
UAE Political SWOT . 8
UAE Economic SWOT 9
Market Overview 10
Current Trends. 16
Key Players 19
Industry Forecast Scenario 24
Consumer Outlook 24
Retail Growth Outlook 26
Table: UAE Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016 26
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2012f . 29
Macroeconomic Outlook 30
United Arab Emirates - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 . 32
Regional Retail Outlook . 33
Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Trends, 2009-2016 33
Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn). 33
Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (%) . 34
Current Trends. 35
Risk/Reward Ratings 44
Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Ratings 44
Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Risk/Reward Ratings 45
The UAE’s Retail Rating 45
Limits To Potential Returns 46
Risks To Realisation Of Returns . 46
Mass Grocery Retail . 47
UAE Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 47
Market Overview 48
Table: Value of Sales Per Outlet 2010 – Estimates 49
Industry Forecast Scenario 49
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010 & 2020 49
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Indicators, 2009-2016 50
Industry Developments 51
Consumer Electronics 54
UAE Consumer Electronics Market SWOT 54
Market Overview 55
Table: Computers Demand, 2009-2016 55
AV 59
Table: AV: Demand, 2009-2016 . 59
Mobile Handsets . 64
Table: Mobile Handsets Demand, 2009-2016 64
Industry Forecast Scenario 67
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016 . 67
Automotives . 70
UAE Autos Industry SWOT . 70
Market Overview 71
Cars 71
Alternative Fuels . 74
Commercial Vehicles 76
Dealerships . 76
Parts And Components Trade 78
Manufacturing . 81
Dubai . 83
Abu Dhabi 85
Northern Emirates 86
Table: Dubai And Northern Emirates – Dealers 87
Table: Abu Dhabi – Dealers . 88
Table: UAE Autos Sector – Key Players . 88
Fleet And Rental Contracts . 89
Automotive Finance . 91
Low-Cost Cars . 94
Used Cars 95
Chinese Brands 96
After-Sales Business . 97
Luxury Cars 99
Industry Forecast Scenario 102
Table: UAE Automotive Sales, 2009-2016 102
Table: UAE Automotive Trade, 2009-2016 .102
Table: Other Indicators, 2009-2016 102
Demographic Outlook 107
Table: United Arab Emirates'' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) .108
Table: United Arab Emirates'' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 .109
Table: United Arab Emirates'' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 110
Table: United Arab Emirates'' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 .110
BMI Methodology . 111
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .111
Sources 112Table: UAE Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016 . 26

Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2012f . 29

Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Trends, 2009-2016 . 33

Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn). 33

Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (%) . 34

Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Risk/Reward Ratings . 45

Table: Value of Sales Per Outlet 2010 – Estimates . 49

Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010 & 2020 . 49

Table: Mass Grocery Retail Indicators, 2009-2016 . 50

Table: Computers Demand, 2009-2016 . 55

Table: AV: Demand, 2009-2016 . 59

Table: Mobile Handsets Demand, 2009-2016 . 64

Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016 . 67

Table: Dubai And Northern Emirates – Dealers . 87

Table: Abu Dhabi – Dealers . 88

Table: UAE Autos Sector – Key Players . 88

Table: UAE Automotive Sales, 2009-2016 .102

Table: UAE Automotive Trade, 2009-2016 .102

Table: Other Indicators, 2009-2016 .102

Table: United Arab Emirates'' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) .108

Table: United Arab Emirates'' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 .109

Table: United Arab Emirates'' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 .110

Table: United Arab Emirates'' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 .110

United Arab Emirates Retail Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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