Hungary Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012

Published : July 2012
No. of Pages : 70

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BMI View: While national energy group MOL has great plans for the Central European region, it can do little to ease Hungary’s growing dependence on imported oil and gas. Independent explorers have made some progress in locating untapped (largely gas) reserves, but the upstream picture remains relatively unattractive.
Main trends and developments we highlight for Hungary’s Oil and Gas sector are: 􀂃 Falcon Oil & Gas has discovered a large Basin-Centred Gas Accumulation (BCGA) and a potential fractured oil and gas play in the Makó Trough area in south central Hungary. An independent report estimates potentially recoverable contingent resources at42.6mn barrels of oil equivalent (boe), based on a minimum 90% probability.
􀂃 Explorer Ascent Resources has estimated that around 50% of the tight gas in the Petişovci- Lovaszi area (on the Hungary/Slovenia border) can be recovered. Proven and probable reserves are almost 12bn cubic metres (bcm). Recent drilling success means that Ascent can now proceed with the re-development of the Petişovci field. The company is studying options that would see it bring gas production onstream at Pg-10 and Pg-11A before the end of 2012.
􀂃 Over the medium-term, an increase in overall gas consumption from an estimated 12.5bcm in 2011 to around 17.4bcm in 2016 is expected, followed by growth to 20.4bcm by 2021 – implying that net gas imports could reach 19.3bcm by the end the period. Efforts are being made to stabilise domestic gas production, but there is little sign of any major increase in volumes.
Hungarian oil consumption fell from its peak of 198,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 1990 to a low of 135,000b/d in 2003. It has since recovered slowly, reaching an estimated level of 148,900b/d in 2011. We expect a gradual recovery – held back by the near-term economic outlook – with consumption reaching no more than 161,800b/d by 2016 and climbing to 176,000b/d by 2021. Domestic production is not expected to rise from recent levels, with steady slippage more likely. This will lead to higher import volumes, reaching 152,300b/d by 2021.
Crude oil import costs should rise from an estimated US$4.81bn in 2012 to US$4.85bn in 2016. The OPEC basket oil price is forecast at US$111.47 per barrel (bbl) in 2012, and is expected to average US$99.00/bbl in 2016. The cost of gas imports is expected to be US$7.67bn by 2016, providing a combined end-period oil and gas import bill of US$12.53bn.

BMI Industry View . 5
SWOT Analysis . 6
Hungary Oil and Gas SWOT 6
Global Energy Market Outlook . 7
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) 8
Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) . 13
Regional Energy Market Outlook 14
Hungary Energy Market Overview . 18
Industry Forecast Scenario 19
Table: Hungary Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 19
Table: Hungary Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 20
Oil And Gas Reserves . 21
Oil Supply And Demand 21
Gas Supply And Demand . 22
Refining And Oil Products Trade 23
Revenues/Import Costs . 23
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 23
Oil And Gas Infrastructure . 24
Oil Refineries . 24
Service Stations 24
Oil Storage Facilities 24
Oil Pipelines 25
Gas Storage Facilities 25
Gas Pipelines . 25
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings 28
Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 30
Table: Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 32
Hungary Upstream Rating – Overview 34
Hungary Upstream Rating – Rewards . 34
Hungary Upstream Rating – Risks 34
Regional Downstream Risks/Rewards 34
Hungary Downstream Rating – Overview 34
Competitive Landscape . 35
Executive Summary 35
Table: Key Players – Hungary Oil And Gas Sector 36
Overview/State Role . 36
Licensing And Regulation 36
Government Policy 37
International Energy Relations 37
Table: Key Upstream Player . 39
Table: Key Downstream Players 40
Company Monitor 41
Magyar Olaj-és Gázipari Nyrt (MOL) 41
Shell Hungary 44
OMV Hungary . 46
Agip Hungaria . 48
ExxonMobil – Summary 50
Lukoil – Summary . 50
E.ON – Summary 50
Rohöl-Aufsuchungs Aktiengesellschaft (RAG) – Summary 50
Ascent Resources – Summary 51
Falcon Oil And Gas – Summary . 51
Hungarian Horizon Energy – Summary 52
Central And Eastern Europe – Regional Appendix 53
Table: Oil Consumption Forecasts, 2009-2016 (000b/d) 53
Table: Oil Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (000b/d) 53
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2009-2016 (000b/d) 54
Table: Oil Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (000b/d) . 55
Table: Refining Capacity Forecasts, 2009-2016 (000b/d) 55
Table: Refining Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (000b/d) 56
Table: Gas Consumption Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 56
Table: Gas Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) . 57
Table: Gas Production Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 57
Table: Gas Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) . 58
Table: LNG Gas Exports Forecasts (bcm) 59
Table: LNG Gas Exports Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) . 59
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 60
Glossary Of Terms . 61
Table: Glossary of Terms . 61
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology . 63
Ratings Overview 63
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure . 64
Indicators 64
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 64
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology . 66
BMI Methodology 68
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 68
Energy Industry 68
Cross checks 69
Sources 69Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) . 8

Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) . 13

Table: Hungary Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 19

Table: Hungary Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 20

Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings . 30

Table: Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings . 32

Table: Key Players – Hungary Oil And Gas Sector . 36

Table: Key Upstream Player . 39

Table: Key Downstream Players . 40

Table: Oil Consumption Forecasts, 2009-2016 (000b/d) . 53

Table: Oil Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (000b/d) . 53

Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2009-2016 (000b/d) . 54

Table: Oil Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (000b/d) . 55

Table: Refining Capacity Forecasts, 2009-2016 (000b/d) . 55

Table: Refining Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (000b/d) . 56

Table: Gas Consumption Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) . 56

Table: Gas Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) . 57

Table: Gas Production Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) . 57

Table: Gas Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) . 58

Table: LNG Gas Exports Forecasts (bcm) . 59

Table: LNG Gas Exports Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) . 59

Table: Glossary of Terms . 61

Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure . 64

Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology . 64

Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology . 66

Hungary Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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