Germany Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012

Published : July 2012
No. of Pages : 82

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The France Real Estate report examines the Commercial Office, Retail, Industrial and Construction segments throughout the country in the context of the hexagon’s new political direction.
Covering the entire country, with a data focus on the principal cities of Paris, Nice and Marseille, the report covers the rental market performance in terms of rates and yields over the past 18 months and examines how best to maximise returns in the commercial real estate market, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impact of the eurozone crisis on a market already characterised by relative stagnation.
In general, prevailing economic sentiment in France remains subdued as consumers cut spending in the face of slow growth, high unemployment and austerity measures. A US$25bn package of tax increases and spending cuts for 2012 and 2013 failed to defend France’s AAA credit rating, which was downgraded in January 2012 by Standard & Poor’s. As a result, despite certain bright spots such as high-end retail, we maintain a bearish outlook for France’s commercial real estate sector.
Key Points 􀂃 Speculation that Hollande''s victory will mark the beginning of a widespread rejection and reversal of austerity measures across the eurozone is exaggerated in our opinion. While we expect to see greater dialogue and debate over the role of growth-supportive measures, we believe that fiscal targets are likely to be respected for the time being.
􀂃 Preparation for France''s hosting of the UEFA Euro 2016 Football Championship will create new contracts and jobs in the construction sector, albeit not at a level comparable to that seen in Poland and Ukraine, where the 2012 games are being held. Overall, the sector should continue to report growth over our forecast period until 2021.
􀂃 Private investment in construction is likely to increase, as austerity measures reach the infrastructure segment, and French firms are likely to look to their overseas clients in order to secure new contracts. Nonetheless, business ties between France and other countries, particularly Russia, should benefit French firms looking to boost their presence overseas.
􀂃 We believe that with the French Socialist Party securing a parliamentary majority in elections on June 17, giving President Francois Hollande control of the French legislature, attention will now focus on the prospect of Germany backing a proposed EUR120bn ''growth pact'' for Europe.

BMI Industry View . 5
SWOT Analysis . 7
Germany Oil and Gas SWOT 7
Global Energy Market Outlook . 8
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) 8
Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) . 14
Regional Energy Market Outlook 15
Germany Energy Market Overview 20
Industry Forecast Scenario 22
Table: Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 22
Table: Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 23
Oil and Gas Reserves . 24
Oil Supply And Demand 25
Gas Supply And Demand . 26
LNG 26
Refining and Oil Products Trade 26
Revenues/Import Costs 27
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario . 27
Oil And Gas Infrastructure . 28
Oil Refineries 28
Table: Refineries In Germany 29
Service Stations 32
Oil Pipelines 32
Oil Terminals 33
Oil Storage 33
Gas Pipelines 33
Gas Storage . 36
LNG Terminals 37
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings 38
Table: Developed States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings, Scores out of 100 . 38
Table: Developed States Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings . 42
Table: Developed States Downstream Risk*/Reward Ratings 42
Germany Upstream Rating – Overview 43
Germany Upstream Rating – Rewards . 43
Germany Upstream Rating – Risks 43
Germany Downstream Rating – Overview 43
Competitive Landscape . 44
Executive Summary 44
Table: Key Players – German Oil And Gas Sector 45
Overview/State Role . 45
Licensing/Regulation 46
Government Policy 47
International Energy Relations 48
Table: Key Upstream Players 48
Table: Key Downstream Players 49
Company Monitor 50
Royal Dutch Shell . 50
BP 52
Total 54
ExxonMobil 56
PKN Orlen 58
OMV . 60
Gazprom – Summary 62
Rhein Petroleum – Summary . 62
RWE – Summary . 63
E.ON – Summary 63
Wintershall – Summary . 64
Others – Summary 65
Developed Europe – Regional Appendix 66
Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) . 66
Table: Oil Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) . 66
Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) . 67
Table: Oil Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 67
Table: Refinery Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 68
Table: Refining Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 68
Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 69
Table: Gas Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 70
Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 70
Table: Gas Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 71
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 71
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) – Long-Term Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm). 71
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 73
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology . 74
Ratings Overview 74
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure . 75
Indicators 75
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 75
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology . 76
Glossary Of Terms . 78
Table: Glossary Of Terms 78
BMI Methodology 80
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 80
Energy Industry 80
Cross checks 81
Sources 81Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) . 8

Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) . 14

Table: Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 22

Table: Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 . 23

Table: Refineries In Germany . 29

Table: Developed States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings, Scores out of 100 . 38

Table: Developed States Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings . 42

Table: Developed States Downstream Risk*/Reward Ratings . 42

Table: Key Players – German Oil And Gas Sector . 45

Table: Key Upstream Players . 48

Table: Key Downstream Players . 49

Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (''000b/d) . 66

Table: Oil Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (''000b/d) . 66

Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (''000b/d) . 67

Table: Oil Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (''000b/d) . 67

Table: Refinery Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (''000b/d) . 68

Table: Refining Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (''000b/d) . 68

Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) . 69

Table: Gas Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) . 70

Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) . 70

Table: Gas Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm). 71

Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) . 71

Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) – Long-Term Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm). 71

Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure . 75

Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology . 75

Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology . 76

Table: Glossary Of Terms . 78

Germany Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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