Denmark Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012

Published : July 2012
No. of Pages : 70

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BMI View: Denmark is hoping to avoid becoming an oil importer for another few years, despite declining near-term production. The government is confident the country will sustain its position as a net exporter of gas until the end of the decade, with some recovery in volumes likely over the medium term.
Given the scale of the likely near-term fall in gas output, however, Denmark may experience a shortfall by 2013.
The main trends and developments we highlight in Denmark’s oil and gas sector are: 􀂃 According to a 2011Danish Energy Agency (DEA) statement dated March 28 2012, in 2020 half of the electricity consumption will come from wind power (currently 25%), and the energy consumption will have decreased by more than 12% relative to 2006 levels. This is the basis of a new Danish Energy Agreement.
􀂃 DEA figures suggest that FY2011 gas production will have been 14% lower than in 2010, with further steep declines expected in 2012 and 2013, before volumes stabilise and begin to recover in 2014/2015. DEA projections show that Denmark is expected to be a net exporter of sales gas in the 11 years up to and including 2021, based on the expected production profile. However, by 2013, the output surplus is likely to be very modest. For gas, the development of new well technology and new discoveries may allow Denmark to maintain its position as a net exporter beyond 2030.
􀂃 BMI forecasts gas production of 5.2bn cubic metres (bcm) by 2021, compared with consumption of 3.9bcm. Modest exports are likely to come to a halt in 2022. The DEA’s estimates are reliant on the successful implementation of new technologies that would significantly raise output from existing fields.
􀂃 The DEA’s projections show that Denmark will continue to be a net exporter of oil until the end of 2018. The most recent five-year forecasts show declining production until 2014/15, when new fields are to be brought on-stream and the planned development of existing fields will have been completed. In the short term, oil production is forecast by BMI to decline to about 175,000b/d in 2014, before recovering in 2015/2016. By 2021, BMI is assuming 157,000b/d of oil production.
􀂃 The DEA points out that if the domestic oil producers succeed in raising the average field recovery factor by five percentage points (above an expected 23.6%) until 2035 and beyond, and if the DEA’s expectations for the exploration potential are realised, Denmark will be able to maintain its position as a net exporter of oil until 2035.
􀂃 DONG Energy and Germany''s Bayerngas have decided to jointly undertake the development of the Hejre field in the Danish North Sea at a cost of DKK12.1bn. DONG will spend DKK7.3bn (US$1.32bn) on the development, and make an additional investment of DKK2bn (US$360mn) to construct the Fredericia oil terminal to process oil from several fields, including Hejre.
Commercial operations are expected to start in end-2015. Oil export revenues will fall from an estimated US$1.69bn in 2012 to US$1.41bn in 2016, with US$1.07bn of net imports expected by 2021. Gas revenues are estimated at US$619mn in 2012, recovering to US$860mn in 2016. This suggests that end-period hydrocarbons export revenues will total US$2.27bn. At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$111.47 per barrel (bbl), falling to US$107.00/bbl in 2013.The assumptions for 2016 and 2021 are US$99.00 and US$97.00/bbl respectively.

BMI Industry View . 5
SWOT Analysis . 7
Denmark Oil and Gas SWOT 7
Global Energy Market Outlook . 8
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) 8
Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) . 14
Regional Energy Market Outlook 15
Denmark Energy Market Overview 20
Table: Denmark – Upstream Project Database 22
Industry Forecast Scenario 23
Table: Denmark Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 23
Table: Denmark Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 24
Oil and Gas Reserves . 25
Oil Supply And Demand 26
Gas Supply And Demand . 27
LNG 28
Refining And Oil Products Trade 28
Revenues/Import Costs 28
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario . 29
Oil And Gas Infrastructure . 30
Oil Refineries 30
Table: Refineries In Denmark 30
Service Stations 31
Oil Storage Facilities . 31
Oil Pipelines/Terminals 31
LNG Terminals 31
Gas Storage Facilities 32
Gas Pipelines 32
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings 33
Table: Developed States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings, Scores out of 100 . 33
Table: Developed States Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings . 37
Table: Developed States Downstream Risk*/Reward Ratings 37
Denmark Upstream Rating – Overview 38
Denmark Upstream Rating – Rewards . 38
Denmark Upstream Rating – Risks 38
Regional Downstream Risks/Rewards 38
Denmark Downstream Rating – Overview 38
Competitive Landscape . 39
Executive Summary 39
Table: Key Players – Danish Oil And Gas Sector 40
Overview/State Role . 40
Licensing And Regulation 40
Regulation 40
Licensing. 41
Government Policy 41
Licensing Rounds 42
Greenland 42
International Energy Relations 42
Table: Key Upstream Players 43
Table: Key Downstream Players 43
Company Monitor 44
DONG Energy . 44
Royal Dutch Shell . 47
Maersk Oil – Summary . 49
Hess – Summary . 50
Statoil – Summary . 50
Faroe Petroleum – Summary 51
Noreco – Summary 51
Others Summary . 52
Developed Europe – Regional Appendix 54
Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) . 54
Table: Oil Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) . 54
Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) . 55
Table: Oil Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 55
Table: Refinery Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 56
Table: Refining Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 56
Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 57
Table: Gas Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 58
Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 58
Table: Gas Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 59
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 59
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) – Long-Term Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm). 59
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 61
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology . 62
Ratings Overview 62
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure . 63
Indicators 63
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 63
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology . 64
Glossary Of Terms . 66
Table: Glossary Of Terms 66
BMI Methodology 68
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 68
Energy Industry 68
Cross checks 69
Sources 69Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) . 8

Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) . 14

Table: Denmark – Upstream Project Database . 22

Table: Denmark Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 23

Table: Denmark Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 . 24

Table: Refineries In Denmark . 30

Table: Developed States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings, Scores out of 100 . 33

Table: Developed States Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings . 37

Table: Developed States Downstream Risk*/Reward Ratings . 37

Table: Key Players – Danish Oil And Gas Sector . 40

Table: Key Upstream Players . 43

Table: Key Downstream Players . 43

Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (''000b/d) . 54

Table: Oil Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (''000b/d) . 54

Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (''000b/d) . 55

Table: Oil Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (''000b/d) . 55

Table: Refinery Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (''000b/d) . 56

Table: Refining Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (''000b/d) . 56

Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) . 57

Table: Gas Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) . 58

Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) . 58

Table: Gas Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm). 59

Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) . 59

Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) – Long-Term Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm). 59

Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure . 63

Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology . 63

Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology . 64

Table: Glossary Of Terms . 66

Denmark Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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