Belgium Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012

Published : July 2012
No. of Pages : 65

Price:

BMI View: Subdued oil demand growth means the prospects for refiners and fuels distributors are poor, with many already facing strong competition. The purchase and reopening of Petroplus’ Antwerp plant should reduce downstream uncertainty. The gas market has greater potential, both in terms of rising domestic demand and the scope to re-sell surplus LNG through regional pipeline links. The market is mature, meaning there is a risk that leading industry players may divest as they seek higher growth and wider margins elsewhere.
The main trends and developments in Belgium’s oil & gas sector are: 􀂃 Petroplus, Europe''s largest independent refiner, announced in January 2012 that it had shut down its 107,500 barrels per day (b/d) Antwerp refinery, along with others in Europe, after a syndicate comprising 13 banks froze a US$1bn credit facility the company was using to buy crude feedstock. In May 2012, Gunvor Group said that it had successfully completed the purchase of the Antwerp refinery, along with the remaining inventory of stock located at the plant.
􀂃 With nuclear generation capacity to remain stagnant over the next few years, before reactors are dismantled under the proposed phase-out, new electricity generating capacity is likely to be largely gas-fired, with an emphasis on renewables. We forecast that Belgian gas demand will rise from an estimated 19.4bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 to 20.2bcm by 2016 and 22.1bcm by 2021 – all met by increased pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.
􀂃 Gas could flow in both directions between France and Belgium by 2015 after the countries’ energy regulators approved a new interconnection point at the Belgium border town of Veurne.
The Veurne interconnector would connect non-odourised gas coming from France with the Belgian grid, according to project documents seen by energy data provider Platts. The interconnector would allow 8.4bcm-11.3bcm to be exported from France to Belgium each year. CRE expects it to come online in late 2014 or early 2015.
􀂃 Belgium imported a net 6.43bcm of gas in the form of LNG in 2010. We expect volumes to move higher in line with rising gas consumption, although near-term progress is likely to be slow. It is estimated that the country imported 6.0bcm of LNG in 2011. Belgium is expected to import 7.0bcm per annum of LNG by 2016 and 10.0bcm by the end of our 10-year forecast period in 2021.
􀂃 Similar to most of Developed Europe, Belgium is registering slow growth in oil consumption. By 2016, we see demand rising to 629,000b/d, which will require imports of 618,000b/d. By 2021, we expect this to reach 653,200b/d, with the country requiring imports of 642,000b/d. The cost of crude imports will be US$24.18bn in 2012, easing to US$22.32bn by 2016. The cost of gas purchases is put at US$10.54bn for 2012 and should be US$9.96bn in 2016. Combined oil and gas costs are forecast at US$32.28bn for 2016. At the time of writing, we forecast an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$111.47 per barrel (bbl), falling to US$107.00/bbl in 2013. For 2016 and 2021, we are assuming basket oil prices of US$99.00/bbl and US$97.00/bbl, respectively.

BMI Industry View . 5
SWOT Analysis . 7
Belgium Oil and Gas SWOT . 7
Global Energy Market Outlook . 8
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) 8
Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) . 14
Regional Energy Market Outlook 15
Belgium Energy Market Overview . 20
Industry Forecast Scenario 22
Table: Belgium Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 22
Table: Belgium Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 23
Oil and Gas Reserves . 24
Oil Supply And Demand 24
Gas Supply And Demand . 25
LNG 25
Refining and Oil Products Trade 25
Revenues/Import Costs 25
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario 26
Oil And Gas Infrastructure . 27
Oil Refineries 27
Table: Refineries In Belgium 27
Service Stations 27
Oil Storage Facilities . 27
Oil Terminals/Ports . 28
Oil Pipelines 28
LNG Terminals 28
Gas Storage Facilities 28
Gas Pipelines 29
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings 30
Table: Developed States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings, Scores out of 100 . 30
Table: Developed States Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings . 34
Table: Developed States Downstream Risk*/Reward Ratings 34
Belgium Upstream Rating – Overview . 35
Belgium Upstream Rating – Rewards 35
Belgium Upstream Rating – Risks . 35
Regional Downstream Risks/Rewards 35
Belgium Downstream Rating – Overview . 35
Competitive Landscape . 36
Executive Summary 36
Table: Key Players – Belgian Oil & Gas Sector 37
Overview/State Role . 38
Licensing and Regulation 38
Government Policy 38
International Energy Relations 38
Table: Key Downstream Players 39
Company Monitor 40
Total 40
ExxonMobil . 42
Petroplus. 44
Distrigas . 45
GDF Suez 47
Developed Europe – Regional Appendix 49
Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) . 49
Table: Oil Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) . 49
Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) . 50
Table: Oil Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 50
Table: Refinery Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 51
Table: Refining Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 51
Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 52
Table: Gas Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 53
Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 53
Table: Gas Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 54
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 54
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) – Long-Term Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm). 54
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 56
Glossary Of Terms . 57
Table: Glossary Of Terms 57
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology . 59
Ratings Overview 59
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure . 60
Indicators 60
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 60
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology . 61
BMI Methodology 63
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 63
Energy Industry 63
Cross checks 64
Sources 64Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) . 8

Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) . 14

Table: Belgium Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 22

Table: Belgium Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 . 23

Table: Refineries In Belgium . 27

Table: Developed States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings, Scores out of 100 . 30

Table: Developed States Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings . 34

Table: Developed States Downstream Risk*/Reward Ratings . 34

Table: Key Players – Belgian Oil & Gas Sector . 37

Table: Key Downstream Players . 39

Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (''000b/d) . 49

Table: Oil Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (''000b/d) . 49

Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (''000b/d) . 50

Table: Oil Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (''000b/d) . 50

Table: Refinery Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (''000b/d) . 51

Table: Refining Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (''000b/d) . 51

Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) . 52

Table: Gas Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) . 53

Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) . 53

Table: Gas Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm). 54

Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) . 54

Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) – Long-Term Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm). 54

Table: Glossary Of Terms . 57

Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure . 60

Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology . 60

Table: BMI''s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology . 61

Belgium Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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