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Belarus Food and Drink Report Q3 2012

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No. of Pages : 89
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We do not envisage a major recovery in domestic demand this year, despite signs of economic stabilisation in Belarus that have emerged over the past few months. Inflation, however, remains in excess of 100%, which will continue to squeeze the already tight consumer budget. Moreover, Belarus’s longer term commercial attractiveness to food and drinks producers will continue to be clouded by it negative demographic outlook, characterised by ageing as well as declining population numbers.
Headline Industry Data (local currency) 􀂃 2012 food consumption = +58.33%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2016 = +22.37%
􀂃 2012 per capita food consumption = +58.86%; forecast CAGR to 2016 = +22.76% 􀂃 2012 alcoholic drinks value sales = +74.25%; forecast CAGR to 2016 = +23.76% 􀂃 2012 soft drinks value sales = +72.54%; forecast CAGR to 2016 = +26.52% Key Company Trends Belarus Looking to Enhance Agricultural Trade: In May 2012, the country’s Agriculture and Food Ministry signed two memorandums of understanding. The Bangladesh-Belarus agreement aims to promote economic ties between the countries and envisages technical cooperation in the production of crops such as vegetables and cereals and in animal husbandry. The cooperation with Vietnam is focused on veterinary medicines, according to BelTA reports. Regional Wine Cooperation Deepened: In May 2012, Belarus’s Minsk Grape Wines Factory (MGWF) was poised to expand its cooperation with Moldova-based Vinaria din Vale. MGWF is reportedly to start offering Vinaria din Vale’s varietal Chardonnay-based Soviet Champagne Chardonnay. The two companies are also planning to cooperate on the production of low alcoholic grape wines.
Key Risks To Outlook Economic and Political Risks Entwined: With the central bank’s foreign currency reserves receiving a boost via hefty financial support from Russia, and the current account deficit continuing to show signs of adjustment, the Belarusian economy appears to be past the worst of its financial crisis. However, we stress that there are still huge risks that authorities will ease monetary policy too soon and too rapidly.
Similarly, while we have been prompted to revise up our 2012 growth forecast to 3.6%, from 2.9% previously, risks to Belarus’s longer-term economic trajectory remain firmly to the downside. Moreover, while Belarus’s short-term political profile has modestly improved in light of nascent signs of economic stabilisation, President Alexander Lukashenko faces a difficult policy environment over the medium term.

BMI Industry View . 7
SWOT Analysis 8
Belarus Food Industry SWOT . 8
Belarus Drink Industry SWOT 9
Belarus Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 10
Business Environment 11
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views 11
Table: Core Views 19
Macroeconomic Outlook 20
Table: Economic Activity . 22
Industry Forecast Scenario 23
Consumer Outlook 23
Food 27
Food Consumption 27
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts 28
Confectionery . 29
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 30
Canned Food . 31
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts . 32
Processed Foods . 33
Table: Meat . 33
Table: Jams & Jellies 34
Pasta 35
Table: Pasta 35
Baked Goods 36
Table: Baked Goods . 36
Dairy 36
Table: Dairy 37
Drink . 40
Alcoholic Drinks . 40
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 41
Soft Drinks 44
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts . 46
Hot Drinks 51
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 51
Mass Grocery Retail 52
Trade . 52
Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts 53
Food 54
Key Industry Trends And Developments 54
Belarus Widening Agricultural Cooperation . 54
Belarusian Food-Processing Industries Attracting Investment . 55
Country Aims To Expand Export Potential 56
Belarus Calling for CIS Free Trade Zone . 56
Market Overview . 57
Food Consumption 57
Food Processing . 57
Confectionery . 58
Agriculture 58
Drink 60
Key Industry Trends And Developments 60
Domestic Beer Production Increasing . 60
Multinationals Continuing To Invest 60
Local Firms Look To Increase Presence In Soft Drinks Market 61
Regional Wine Producers Expanding Ties 61
Market Overview . 61
Alcoholic Drinks . 61
Beer 63
Leading Brewers . 63
Soft Drinks 65
Hot Drinks 65
Mass Grocery Retail 66
Key Industry Trends And Developments 66
Government Encouraging Convenience Stores Openings . 66
Operating Environment Remains Challenging 66
MGR Had Been Of Interest In Recent Years 66
Market Overview . 67
Leading Retailers 68
Competitive Landscape 69
Table: Key Players In Belarus’s Food Sector 69
Table: Key Players In Belarus’s Drink Sector 70
Table: Key Players In Belarus’s Mass Grocery Retail Industry 71
Company Monitor 72
Food 72
Bellakt 72
Kraft Foods . 73
Drink . 74
Krinitsa 74
PepsiCo 76
Mass Grocery Retail 77
Sedmoi Kontinent 77
Vester . 78
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 79
Table: Rewards 79
Table: Risks 80
Weighting 80
Table: Weighting. 80
Demographic Outlook 81
Table: Belarus’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 82
Table: Belarus’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 83
Table: Belarus’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 84
Table: Belarus’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 84
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary . 85
Food & Drink 85
Mass Grocery Retail 85
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing 87
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 87
Sourcing 88Table: Core Views . 19


Table: Economic Activity . 22


Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts . 28


Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts . 30


Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts . 32


Table: Meat . 33


Table: Jams & Jellies . 34


Table: Pasta . 35


Table: Baked Goods . 36


Table: Dairy. 37


Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts . 41


Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts . 46


Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts. 51


Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts . 53


Table: Key Players In Belarus''s Food Sector . 69


Table: Key Players In Belarus''s Drink Sector . 70


Table: Key Players In Belarus''s Mass Grocery Retail Industry . 71


Table: Rewards . 79


Table: Risks . 80


Table: Weighting. 80


Table: Belarus''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) . 82


Table: Belarus''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 83


Table: Belarus''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 84


Table: Belarus''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 84

Belarus Food and Drink Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International
 

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