Argentina Real Estate Report Q3 2012

Published : July 2012
No. of Pages : 61

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The Argentina Real Estate report examines the Commercial Office, Retail, Industrial and Construction segments throughout the country in the context of our deteriorating economic outlook and an uneasy investment landscape for the Latin American nation.
With a focus on the principal cities of Buenos Aires, Cordoba and La Plata, the report covers the rental market performance in terms of rates and yields over the past 18 months and examines how best to maximise returns in the commercial real estate market, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impact of the government financing restrictions on a market already expected to slow over the year.
Construction contributes around 5% of Argentina''s GDP, a percentage that is set to increase only marginally in future. But the construction segment holds promise, despite 2011’s growth figure coming in lower than in 2010. As for the broader real estate market, 2011 witnessed marginal stabilisation of yields and rents, with minimal new developments under way. Our most recent round of in-country interviews, conducted in December 2011, has revealed that political issues and a potential for recession in the economy have constrained any major activity in the office, retail or industrial real estate markets.
Despite Argentina’s resilience to global headwinds in 2011, we continue to expect a slowdown in GDP growth in 2012, due to a moderation in private consumption and fixed investment. From our estimate of 7.0% in 2011, we expect that moderating commodity prices and a deterioration in domestic demand will weigh heavily on Argentina''s real GDP growth in 2012. The protectionist policies recently implemented by President Cristina Fernández''s administration will have a negative impact on private consumption, fixed investment and export growth, acting as a drag on the economy. As a result, we have revised down our 2012 forecast for Argentina''s real GDP growth to 4.0%, from 5.3% previously.
Key Points: 􀂃 The government’s US dollar purchasing restrictions could affect all the potential opportunities in the market, as players stall their activities to see what the outcome of the government’s decision will be.
􀂃 We reiterate our view that the Argentine government will continue to implement only temporary fixes to the country''s macroeconomic imbalances.
􀂃 Construction industry value is forecast to reach US$27.7bn in 2012, with year-on-year growth of 3.3%.
􀂃 We have revised down our 2012 forecast for Argentina''s real GDP growth to 4.0%, from 5.3% previously.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 7
Argentina Real Estate And Construction SWOT . 7
Argentina Political SWOT . 8
Argentina Economic SWOT 9
Argentina Business Environment SWOT . 10
Real Estate Market Overview . 11
Market Analysis – Office 13
Supply And Demand. 13
Rents And Yields . 13
Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (USD per m2/month) 14
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%) 15
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases - Mid 2011 15
Industry Forecast Scenario 16
Table: Forecast Rents - (USD per m2/month) 16
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%) 16
Market Analysis – Retail 17
Supply And Demand. 17
Rents And Yields . 17
Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (USD per m2/month) 18
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%) 18
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases - Mid 2011 19
Industry Forecast Scenario 20
Table: Forecast Rents - (USD per m2/month) 20
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%) 20
Table: Argentina Retail Sales Indicators, 2008 - 2016 21
Market Analysis – Industrial 22
Supply And Demand. 22
Rents And Yields . 22
Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (USD per m2/month) 23
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%) 23
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases - Mid 2011 23
Industry Forecast Scenario 24
Table: Forecast Rents - (USD per m2/month) 24
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%) 24
Forecast Scenarios 25
Infrastructure Report . 25
Table: Argentina Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008 - 2016 25
Table: Argentina Construction And Infrastructure Industry Long Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 26
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario . 27
Macroeconomic Outlook 29
Table: Argentina - Economic Activity 30
Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings 31
Real Estate/Construction Risk/Reward Ratings 31
Table: Latin America Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings 31
Argentina’s Business Environment 31
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings . 31
Institutions 32
Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating 33
Infrastructure . 35
Table: Labour Force Quality 36
Market Orientation 37
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings 39
Operational Risk . 40
Competitive Landscape . 41
Company Monitor 43
Genergia . 43
Grupo ODS/Creaurban . 44
IRSA – Inversiones y Representaciones Sociedad Anónima . 46
Roggio . 48
Skanska Latin America . 49
Techint . 50
Demographic Data 51
Table: Argentina''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) . 52
Table: Argentina''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 53
Table: Argentina''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 54
Table: Argentina''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 54
BMI Methodology 55
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 55
Construction Industry . 56
Bank Lending . 57
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating 57
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 58
Sources 60Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (USD per m2/month) . 14

Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%) . 15

Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases - Mid 2011 . 15

Table: Forecast Rents - (USD per m2/month). 16

Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%) . 16

Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (USD per m2/month) . 18

Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%) . 18

Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases - Mid 2011 . 19

Table: Forecast Rents - (USD per m2/month). 20

Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%) . 20

Table: Argentina Retail Sales Indicators, 2008 - 2016 . 21

Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (USD per m2/month) . 23

Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%) . 23

Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases - Mid 2011 . 23

Table: Forecast Rents - (USD per m2/month). 24

Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%) . 24

Table: Argentina Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008 - 2016 . 25

Table: Argentina Construction And Infrastructure Industry Long Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 . 26

Table: Argentina - Economic Activity . 30

Table: Latin America Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings . 31

Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings . 31

Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating . 33

Table: Labour Force Quality . 36

Table: Trade And Investment Ratings . 39

Table: Argentina''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) . 52

Table: Argentina''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 53

Table: Argentina''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 54

Table: Argentina''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 54

Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 58

Argentina Real Estate Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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