Russia Autos Report Q3 2012

A significant moderation in Russian new light vehicle (comprising passenger cars and light commercial vehicles) sales growth in the first four months of 2012 has prompted BMI to revise down its 2012 sales growth forecast from 10.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) to nearly 7% y-o-y. Estimates from the Association of European Businesses show that light vehicle sales grew almost 18% y-o-y between January and April 2012, down from a cumulative growth of over 38% y-o-y in 2011.
However, our outlook for vehicle sales growth in the medium and long term remains optimistic. We currently forecast growth of more than 8% y-o-y on average between 2012 and 2016, which will help the market hit the 4mn-unit annual sales mark by the end of the forecast period.
Our outlook for the production segment, meanwhile, remains unchanged. On the back of the domestic demand potential and the consequent increase in investments by OEMs, we expect vehicle production to grow by at least 8% y-o-y during 2012, after an impressive 41.6% y-o-y increase in 2011. With average growth expected to reach around 10% y-o-y on average thereafter, BMI is currently forecasting Russia''s total autos production to reach 3.67mn units in 2016, more than three times the level in 2009.
Unsurprisingly, this potential for domestic production growth is attracting a slew of investments from parts suppliers. Canadian auto parts supplier Magna International and Russian carmaker Avtotor are looking to establish an automotive cluster in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, in a project estimated to be worth EUR3bn. The development indicates a broader trend in the Russian autos industry where investing firms are seeking to establish their manufacturing bases in regions with existing autos links.
This gives companies easy access to vehicle parts and helps reduce logistics and transportation costs. St Petersberg, Moscow, Nizhniy Novgorod and Togliatti regions have so far emerged as the leading autos manufacturing hub in the country.
Others such as Renault-Nissan Alliance are eyeing to tap the growth potential through local acquisitions and partnerships. In May 2012, Renault-Nissan Alliance and Russian Technologies agreed to create a joint venture (JV) to acquire a majority stake in AvtoVAZ, Russia''s largest carmaker. Renault-Nissan plans to invest about US$750 million, which will give the France-Japan car group 67.13% of the JV in mid-2014. Similarly, in March 2012, Germany''s Daimler increased its stake in Russian truck maker Kamaz from 15% to 25% plus one. Given that Daimler has been lagging behind its competitors in the Russian new commercial vehicle market, the move can be seen as part of the firm''s attempt to strengthen its presence in the market.
Russia continues to lead BMI’s Risk/Reward Ratings this quarter, a position which has been reinforced by the strong vehicle demand and investments from OEMs and parts suppliers.