Yemen Infrastructure Report Q3 2012

BMI View: Yemen’s construction and infrastructure sector continues to struggle with the sector forecast to contract further in 2012. The industry value is set to shrink with year on year (y-o-y) growth of -4.5% this year. This will see the industry value stand at US$1.4bn in 2012. Growth is set to return over the forecast period with industry value expected to rise to US$2.4bn by 2016.
Recent developments include: 􀂃 Yemen''s state-owned Public Electricity Corporation (PEC) launched a tender for a 305km transmission line connecting Dhamar with Aden through Ibb and Taiz. The winning company will secure a 27-month contract to design, produce, deliver, deploy, test and commission the project, which has already received funding from the Abu Dhabi Development Fund. In addition, the contract will involve connecting the five line sections and points with new and old substations.
􀂃 Cement manufacturers in Oman announced intentions to increase production capacity in order to meet increasing demand. Omani cement producers have been stymied by a proliferation of cheap cement from the UAE; however, following the global economic downturn, UAE producers are no longer able to undercut the local market as their operational costs have risen significantly.
This leaves Omani producers well-placed to capitalise upon the burgeoning demand within Oman and regional export markets such as Yemen and East Africa. Oman Cement reported a 13.8% year-on-year increase in cement sales volume during Q112.
We see few risks clouding Oman''s political outlook in 2012. Protest activity throughout the country has eased off considerably, and high oil prices leave the government with room to increase social spending in the event that social tensions re-emerge. Royal succession is the major question regarding Oman''s political future, although demographic change and regional instability also pose challenges.
Oman''s economy is set to hit a cyclical peak in 2012, and we forecast growth rates of 4.8% and 3.8% year-on-year in 2012 and 2013 respectively. High oil revenues will drive this expansion, feeding through to fixed investment and private consumption.