United States Petrochemicals Report Q3 2012

Published : July 2012
No. of Pages : 80

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The US Petrochemicals Report examines the long-term potential of the country’s cracker sector which is set to enjoy a resurgence as a result of the Marcellus shale gas reserves. However, the report also raises short-term concerns over the slowdown in the domestic market and the impact of the ongoing eurozone crisis.
The report examines how producers are minimising investment risk and also explores the impact of the increasingly precarious external macroeconomic environment on the US consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters alike to realise returns in the short-term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the US petrochemicals industry as they seek to maximise the tremendous growth opportunities offered by the local market as well as the leveraging their competitive edge over European producers. In the first four months of 2012, US chemicals output grew just 0.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), with the threemonth moving average for March and April seeing declines of 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, according to figures provided by the American Chemistry Council (ACC). Despite the slowdown in 2012, investment in capacity is accelerating as US natural gas prices have become affordable and relatively stable. In stark contrast to the EU, the US is seeing a resurgence in petrochemicals expansion, having held on to almost all the capacity it possessed before the 2008 financial crisis. Key to this is the Marcellus shale deposits, which have improved the cost position of US petrochemicals.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following views: • BMI believes that the 4% growth forecast for 2012 in the previous quarter now looks overly optimistic and chemicals output is now likely to rise by just 2.5%. The main concern will be the extent to which the eurozone crisis impacts on the US economy.
• By 2016, ethylene production capacity should have exceeded 30mn tonnes per annum (tpa), an increase of around 12% over 2011 levels. Expansion is set to continue during the forecast period, particularly in downstream polymers and olefins. US ethylene production could therefore reach record highs in the coming years.
• The US scores 90.1 points in BMI’s Americas regional petrochemicals ratings, 12.4 points ahead of Canada. The score improved by 2.3 points this quarter as a result of new ethylene projects as well as the improved market risk scenario, both directly related to the competitive ethane feedstock opportunities provided by the Marcellus shale deposits.

BMI Industry View 5
US Political SWOT .. 6
US Economic SWOT 7
US Business Environment SWOT . 8
Global Petrochemicals Overview . 9
Petrochemicals Market Overview 9
Table: World Ethylene Production By Country, 2011 And 2016 (‘000 tonnes capacity) ... 9
Financial Results ... 13
Table: Financial Results Of Major Petrochemicals Companies, 2011 ... 13
US Market Overview 14
Competitive Landscape 15
Upstream . 15
Olefins 16
Table: Olefins Production Capacity (‘000tpa) . 16
Aromatics . 19
Table: Aromatics And Derivatives Capacity (‘000tpa) .. 20
Mixed Xylenes 21
Table: Xylenes Capacity (‘000tpa)... 21
Polyethylene (PE) .. 22
Table: US Polyethylene Manufacturing And Applications . 22
Table: PE Chain Capacity, (‘000tpa) .. 23
High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) 23
Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) .. 24
Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) ... 25
Polypropylene (PP) 25
Table: US PP Capacity (‘000tpa) 27
Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) 27
Table: PVC Chain Capacity, (‘000tpa) 27
Polystyrene (PS) 28
Table: PS Chain Capacity, (‘000tpa) ... 29
Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) ... 30
Table: US Petrochemicals Sector – PET Chain Capacity (‘000tpa) .. 30
Industry Trends And Developments 32
Latest developments . 32
Government Policy And Regulations ... 35
Collapse Of The PIC-Dow Merger .. 36
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 37
Petrochemicals Forecasts 37
Table: US Petrochemicals Industry, 2008-2016 .. 38
Risk/Reward Ratings ... 40
Petrochemicals Business Environment. 40
Macroeconomic Outlook ... 43
Table: United States - GPD By Expenditure, Real Growth (%), 2008-2016. ... 46
Table: United States - GDP Contribution To Growth, 2008-2016 . 47
Company Profiles 48
BP .. 48
Chevron Phillips Chemical Company .. 51
Dow Chemical ... 53
ExxonMobil .. 56
Huntsman . 58
Ineos .. 60
LyondellBasell ... 62
Occidental Chemical 64
Shell Chemicals.. 66
Westlake Chemical . 67
Appendix: BP . 69
Table: The United States'' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) 71
Table: The United States'' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 71
Table: The United States'' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 72
Table: The United States'' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 73
Glossary Of Terms ... 74
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 74
BMI Methodology . 75
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 75
Chemicals and Petrochemicals Industry 75
Cross Checks . 76
Business Environment Ratings ... 77
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale . 78
Weighting . 79
Table: Weighting Of Indicators.. 79Table: World Ethylene Production By Country, 2011 And 2016 (‘000 tonnes capacity) . 9

Table: Financial Results Of Major Petrochemicals Companies, 2011 . 13

Table: Olefins Production Capacity (‘000tpa) . 16

Table: Aromatics And Derivatives Capacity (‘000tpa) . 20

Table: Xylenes Capacity (‘000tpa). 21

Table: US Polyethylene Manufacturing And Applications . 22

Table: PE Chain Capacity, (‘000tpa) . 23

Table: US PP Capacity (‘000tpa) . 27

Table: PVC Chain Capacity, (‘000tpa) . 27

Table: PS Chain Capacity, (‘000tpa) . 29

Table: US Petrochemicals Sector – PET Chain Capacity (‘000tpa) . 30

Table: US Petrochemicals Industry, 2008-2016 . 38

Table: United States - GPD By Expenditure, Real Growth (%), 2008-2016. . 46

Table: United States - GDP Contribution To Growth, 2008-2016 . 47

Table: The United States'' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) . 71

Table: The United States'' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 71

Table: The United States'' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 72

Table: The United States'' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 73

Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms . 74

Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale . 78

Table: Weighting Of Indicators. 79

United States Petrochemicals Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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