Uganda Food and Drink Report Q3 2012

Published : July 2012
No. of Pages : 57

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Uganda''s organised food and drink (F&D) industry is accelerating off a very low base, with per capita food consumption still below US$250, per capita beer consumption below 10 litres and organised grocery retail''s proportional contribution to overall sales below 5%. As local consumers climb up the income ranks, these consumption levels will soar considerably over the coming years, underpinning our expectations that the Ugandan market will comfortably outperform the broader East African Community (EAC) region.
Backing up BMI''s view on Uganda''s relative competitiveness, sector investments have been more forthcoming in its F&D sector than in Tanzania''s, with a number of companies opting to invest in Uganda before Tanzania. Uganda''s beer industry has been the EAC''s most competitive for some time, with Diageo-owned East Africa Breweries (EAB) vying for leadership, while most recently Kenyan retailers, led by Nakumatt and Uchumi in particular, have been launching stores, with others expected to follow suit. The retailers are largely pursuing middle-high income traffic, as the industry generally lacks the scale to pursue low-income traffic at this stage.
In stark contrast to the demographic ''time bomb'' being faced by most developed countries, Uganda''s population is one of the most youthful and fastest growing in the world. According to statistics published by the US Census Bureau, Uganda''s total fertility rate is 6.5 births per woman, second only to Niger. Given that we expect the birth rate to be sustained at this high level, the country''s population pyramid is likely to be as widely based in three or four decades from now as it is at present.
Headline Industry Data 􀂃 Per capita food consumption is forecast to increase by 20.7% in 2012. To 2016, compound annual growth of 14.1% is forecast
􀂃 Mass grocery retail sales are forecast to increase by 27.8% in 2012. To 2016, compound annual growth of 19.4% is forecast

BMI Industry View 4
Business Environment .. 5
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views 5
Table: BMI’s Core Views . 16
Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Drink Ratings . 17
Table: Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q312 (scores out of 10) 18
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q312 .. 21
Macroeconomic Outlook ... 22
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 24
Food, Drink, Mass Grocery Retail .. 24
Food ... 24
Table: Uganda – Food . 25
Table: Uganda – Sugar Confectionary . 26
Table: Uganda – Dairy 27
Drink .. 28
Beer 28
Table: Uganda – Beer .. 29
Table: Uganda – Carbonated Soft Drinks . 30
Table: Uganda – Tea 31
Mass Grocery Retail . 32
Table: Uganda – Mass Grocery Retail . 33
Market Overview . 34
An Overview Of The East African Food And Drink Industry 34
Key Regional Industry Trends And Developments 42
Africa To Guzzle A Lot More Beer, Look Out For Nigeria .. 42
Demographic Outlook .. 46
Uganda''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) . 47
Uganda''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)... 47
Uganda''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 48
Uganda''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020. 49
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 50
Table: Rewards .. 51
Table: Risks .. 51
Weighting 52
Table: Weighting 52
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary ... 53
Food & Drink 53
Mass Grocery Retail 53
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing ... 55
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 55
Sourcing ... 56Table: BMI''s Core Views . 16

Table: Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q312 (scores out of 10) . 18

Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q312 . 21

Table: Uganda – Food . 25

Table: Uganda – Sugar Confectionary . 26

Table: Uganda – Dairy . 27

Table: Uganda – Beer . 29

Table: Uganda – Carbonated Soft Drinks . 30

Table: Uganda – Tea . 31

Table: Uganda – Mass Grocery Retail . 33

Table: Rewards . 51

Table: Risks . 51

Table: Weighting . 52

Uganda Food and Drink Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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