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South Korea Agribusiness Report Q3 2012

Published : July 2012
No. of Pages : 80

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BMI View: On the heels of the recently implemented Korea-US (KORUS) free trade agreement (FTA) is an announcement between the government of South Korea, together with its two East Asian neighbours, China and Japan, that they aim to seal a trilateral FTA within the next two years. Given that South Koreans are the most subsidised population in the world (63% of revenues are derived from government subsidies), this is likely to receive strong protests from the agriculture sector. However, if the government''s steely response to the previous signing of the KORUS agreement is anything to go by, BMI believes that industry consolidation will only grow and gather pace in the foreseeable future.
Key Forecasts 􀂃 Corn consumption to 2016: 24.1% to 10.2mn tonnes. Approximately 75% of this demand will be accounted for by the livestock sector. Another important driver of corn demand over the medium term will be the increase in consumption of high fructose corn syrup, which is becoming more popular than sugar in the country''s expanding soft drinks sector.
􀂃 Milk production to 2015/16: 2.8% to 2.2mn tonnes. This growth is likely to be supported by improved yields per cow and favourable pricing structures for farmers based on a new agreement to raise the average price of raw milk.
􀂃 Pork production to 2015/16: 30.0% to 1.1mn tonnes. Like beef and poultry, South Korea will remain a net pork importer over the medium term. Like beef and poultry, South Korea will remain a net pork importer over the medium term.
􀂃 Real GDP growth: 1.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2012 (down from 3.7% y-o-y in 2011 and set to average 4.0% out to 2016)
􀂃 Consumer price index: 2.7% y-o-y in 2012 (down from 4.2 y-o-y in 2011 and set to average 3.0% from 2011 to 2016).
Industry Developments Despite the declining overall domestic consumption of rice, we highlight that there is a growing trend of increased demand for rice processing for the export-oriented food processing industry. According to government data, rice demand for processing has almost doubled in recent years, from 366,000 tonnes demanded in 2008/09 to 650,000 tonnes in 2011/12. Consumption from the food processing (39% of total demand) and liquor processing industries (20% of total demand) are expected to grow strongly in the near term as the government continues its efforts to globalise Korean cuisine, which includes rice cakes and other rice based snacks. China and US rice exporters will benefit the most out of this trend, given that they contributed to 46% and 29% of 2011 total rice imports respectively.
Despite the strong reliance on corn imports, the Korean government has been firmly adverse to growing or importing genetically modified (GM) corn. Indeed, corn processors continue to import only non-GM corn from countries such as the US, Hungary, Serbia and Russia. China-produced corn is also favoured as it is reportedly derived from non-GM seeds. While we believe that this trend should continue to hold in the near term, it would seem unlikely for the government to remain anti-GM for a sustained period, given the growing acceptance even in the likes of traditionally-resistance countries such as China, in growing and importing GM foods.
BMI believes that the national hog herd will not exceed pre-crisis levels any time soon. According to data from the US Department of Agriculture, total expected inventory of hogs in 2012 should come in at around 13.9mn heads. Although this is 4.4% higher on the year, it still stands a way off the peak level of 14.9mn heads in 2009, before the HFMD epidemic in 2010-2011. We foresee the 21 national integrators as playing an increasing role in growing the industry in the near future. As of today, they contribute to 20% of the nation''s total swine inventory. That said, close to 60% of the total inventory is still being produced by mid-sized farms with 1000-4,999 swine. With the FTA having come into force in recent months, we expect the industry to go through more consolidation before it will grow as strongly as it did before the crisis.

Executive Summary ... 5
SWOT Analysis 7
South Korea Agriculture Swot . 7
South Korea Business Environment SWOT .. 8
Supply Demand Analysis 9
South Korea Rice Outlook ... 9
Table: South Korea Rice Production, Consumption & Trade .. 10
Table: South Korea Rice Production, Consumption & Trade .. 12
South Korea Grains Outlook . 12
Table: South Korea Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade ... 13
Table: South Korea Corn Production, Consumption & Trade . 13
Table: South Korea Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade ... 15
Table: South Korea Corn Production, Consumption & Trade . 15
South Korea Dairy Outlook .. 16
Table: South Korea Milk Production, Consumption & Trade .. 17
Table: South Korea Butter Production, Consumption & Trade ... 17
Table: South Korea Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade .. 17
Table: South Korea Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade .. 18
Table: South Korea Milk Production, Consumption & Trade .. 19
Table: South Korea Butter Production, Consumption & Trade ... 19
Table: South Korea Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade .. 19
Table: South Korea Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade .. 19
South Korea Livestock Outlook ... 20
Table: South Korea Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade . 21
Table: South Korea Pork Production, Consumption & Trade . 21
Table: South Korea Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade 22
Table: South Korea Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade . 24
Table: South Korea Pork Production, Consumption & Trade . 25
Table: South Korea Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade 25
Commodity Price Analysis ... 26
Monthly Softs Update ... 26
Cocoa: Signs Of Life 27
Coffee: Holding Key Support . 29
Palm Oil: Uptrend Intact . 31
Sugar: Watching Brazilian Yields 32
Cotton: Downside Risks ... 34
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts .. 35
Monthly Grains Update 36
Wheat: Upside Risks Materialising .. 37
Corn: Moderation In Place 39
Soybean: Looking Weak ... 41
Rice: Temporary Strength 43
Table: Commodity Performance 43
Upstream Analysis .. 44
Tractor Growth In Asia Will Be Led By South Asian Countries 44
Asia Fertiliser: Reduced Government Subsidies & Fertiliser ''Rebalancing'' . 47
Table: Asia Fertiliser Production & Consumption .. 51
GM Seeds & Asia: Private-Public Partnerships The Way Forward .. 51
Downstream Analysis . 57
Food 57
Table: Food Consumption Indicators, 2009-2016 ... 60
Table: Canned Food Sales, 2009-2016 61
Table: Confectionery Sales, 2009-2016 . 62
Table: Sugar Confectionery, 2011-2016 63
Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 . 64
Drink ... 65
Table: Coffee And Tea Sales, 2009-2016 ... 65
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Sales, 2009-2016 . 66
Table: Beer Production, 2009-2016 . 67
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, 2009-2016 68
Table: Carbonated Soft Drinks, 2010-2016 ... 69
Table: Bottled Water, 2008-2016 . 69
Mass Grocery Retail ... 70
Table: MGR Sales, 2009-2016 ... 72
Table: Retail Sales By Format, 2012 And 2022 (%) 72
Country Snapshot: South Korea Demographic Data . 73
Table: South Korea''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) .. 74
Table: South Korea''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 75
Table: South Korea''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 .. 76
Table: South Korea''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 .. 76
BMI Forecast Modelling 77
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 77Table: South Korea Rice Production, Consumption & Trade . 10

Table: South Korea Rice Production, Consumption & Trade . 12

Table: South Korea Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade . 13

Table: South Korea Corn Production, Consumption & Trade . 13

Table: South Korea Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade . 15

Table: South Korea Corn Production, Consumption & Trade . 15

Table: South Korea Milk Production, Consumption & Trade . 17

Table: South Korea Butter Production, Consumption & Trade . 17

Table: South Korea Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade . 17

Table: South Korea Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade . 18

Table: South Korea Milk Production, Consumption & Trade . 19

Table: South Korea Butter Production, Consumption & Trade . 19

Table: South Korea Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade . 19

Table: South Korea Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade . 19

Table: South Korea Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade . 21

Table: South Korea Pork Production, Consumption & Trade . 21

Table: South Korea Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade . 22

Table: South Korea Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade . 24

Table: South Korea Pork Production, Consumption & Trade . 25

Table: South Korea Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade . 25

Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts . 35

Table: Commodity Performance . 43

Table: Asia Fertiliser Production & Consumption . 51

Table: Food Consumption Indicators, 2009-2016 . 60

Table: Canned Food Sales, 2009-2016 . 61

Table: Confectionery Sales, 2009-2016 . 62

Table: Sugar Confectionery, 2011-2016 . 63

Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 . 64

Table: Coffee And Tea Sales, 2009-2016 . 65

Table: Alcoholic Drinks Sales, 2009-2016 . 66

Table: Beer Production, 2009-2016 . 67

Table: Soft Drinks Sales, 2009-2016 . 68

Table: Carbonated Soft Drinks, 2010-2016 . 69

Table: Bottled Water, 2008-2016 . 69

Table: MGR Sales, 2009-2016 . 72

Table: Retail Sales By Format, 2012 And 2022 (%) . 72

Table: South Korea''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) . 74

Table: South Korea''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 75

Table: South Korea''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 76

Table: South Korea''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 76

South Korea Agribusiness Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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