Poland Autos Report Q3 2012

BMI continues to see only lacklustre growth in the Polish auto sector over the course of 2012, not least because the industry is so production and export focused, with a particular emphasis on supplying vehicles to Western Europe, where consumer spending continues to falter as the eurozone crisis rumbles on. According to Reuters, as much as 98% of autos produced in Poland are intended for shipment overseas, with the country’s export industry valued at US$16bn in 2012. Poland is under increasing pressure from Slovakia as a cheap Central European manufacturing hub and may be forced to look east as it seeks to escape economic stagnation in its traditional auto markets. However, there is reason for optimism as Poland’s Deputy Finance Minister Dominik Radziwill recently declared in an interview with the Rzeczpospolita newspaper that he expected economic growth in 2012 to reach between 3% and 3.5%, far beyond European Commission forecasts of 2.5%. Auto production accounts for around 7% of Poland''s industrial output so continues to play an important part in ensuring the country’s general economic wellbeing although remains subject to economic fluctuations behind its borders and beyond its control. Poland’s auto sector was valued at between EUR18.7bn (US$23bn) and EUR19.1bn (US$23.6bn) in 2011, according to the Warsaw Business Journal, and will continue to hold its breath in 2012 as Germany and France try to lead Europe out of recession. Poland itself is experiencing unemployment at a five-year high of 13%, according to The Economist, but the country should at least receive a timely economic boost from the influx of tourists visiting in June and July 2012 for the UEFA Euro 2012 football tournament, which Poland is co-hosting with Ukraine.
Provisional estimates for March 2012 compiled by the European Association of Auto Manufacturers and cited by Bloomberg suggest that Poland achieved auto sales growth of 8.6% for the month, defying a Europe-wide slump that marked the continent’s lowest sales score since 1998. The country’s relatively low labour costs continue to attract new companies to set up production facilities on its soil, particularly from the supplier and auto component manufacturing sectors. However, the decision by Fiat in late 2011 to return production of its tried and trusted Panda model to Italy came as a blow, especially given the heightened competition the country is facing from Slovakia, which has impressed the likes of Kia sufficiently enough for them to begin building their new SUV lines there. Fiat, Opel Škoda, Toyota and Renault remain the key players in the Polish auto sector and their moves will be watched with interest by rivals with designs on relocating to a less costly production base.