Nigeria Infrastructure Report Q3 2012

Published : July 2012
No. of Pages : 71

Price:

BMI View: Investment continues to flow into the Nigerian construction sector, bolstered by a growing oil industry and historically high prices. In line with our forecast, Nigeria continues to see strong growth within its construction sector and we anticipate annual average real growth of 9.2% between 2012 and 2016. This positive outlook is largely driven by our bullish view on the country’s transport and energy infrastructure; both sectors being a priority for the government. However, we likewise highlight significant risks to the implementation of any major project, ranging from deep-rooted corruption, violence perpetrated by militant Islamists and retaliatory forces, and a vast yet inefficient bureaucracy.
Key developments include: • Nigerian infrastructure development company Bi-Courtney Highway Services (BCHS) has announced that it is to begin its redevelopment of the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway at the Ibadan end. The US$559mn project involves the reconstruction of both existing carriageways, as well as the addition of two more carriageways in each direction between the Lagos-Sagamu interchange. BCHS has been awarded a 25-year concession contract to manage the expressway, which links Lagos with Nigeria''s western states.
• Nigeria’s Minister of Aviation has announced the plan to construct a new international airport in Abuja. The planned airport would thus join a fleet of already ongoing projects within the airport transport subsector: we already note the construction of five new terminals at five different airports across the country, as well as the redevelopment of five existing terminals, approved by the government in February 2011.
• Intels Nigeria was awarded a contract by the Nigerian government for Phase 4 of the Onne Port Complex at Port Harcourt in Rivers State. The US$370.5mn project includes land reclamation, the widening of the channel entry, the construction of three new berths and the Federal Ocean Terminal, and the enhancement of existing facilities at the port. Intels, which has already completed the first three phases of the project, will undertake the work in order to allow the port to handle an increase in gas and oil shipments.
• The Nigerian government and General Electric (GE)’s recent power deal ,(GE has signed an agreement to help Nigeria to develop 10 GW of additional electrical-generating capacity, amid a push to privatize the failing state-run Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN), provides some optimism in terms of tackling the country’s epileptic power supply. Nigeria continues to be rocked by persistent violence perpetrated by militant Islamists and retaliatory forces, which threatens to escalate if not contained. Meanwhile, the removal of fuel subsidies spurred nationwide protests, including a general strike, putting immense pressure on the government and eventually forcing it to partly back-paddle. However, to sustain long-term growth the country will need to press ahead with the ambitious, and necessary, economic and business environment reforms, and develop a plan to address the root causes of violence in the Niger Delta and the Middle Belt.
Hence, while significant hurdles will need to be surmounted, we still expect that 2012 will see a strong construction industry real growth of 9.5%, bolstered by investment and the consumer sector, as well as a growing oil sector, fuelled by historically high prices.

BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Nigeria Infrastructure SWOT ... 7
Market Overview .. 8
Competitive Landscape . 8
Table: EQS Data .. 8
Building Materials 10
Global Overview . 10
Regional Overview .. 13
Cement Forecasts 18
Table: Nigeria Cement Production and Consumption Data, 2009 - 2016 18
Table: Nigeria Cement Production and Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021 . 18
Table: Nigeria Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008 - 2016 .. 19
Table: Nigeria Construction And Infrastructure Industry Long-Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 .. 20
Construction and Infrastructure Forecast Scenario .. 21
Transport Infrastructure 25
Table: Nigeria Transport Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008 - 2016 25
Table: Nigeria Transport Infrastructure Industry Long Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 27
Transport Infrastructure Outlook and Overview . 29
Key Projects – Transport Infrastructure ... 31
Table: Major Projects - Transport ... 31
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure . 36
Table: Nigeria Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008 - 2016 36
Table: Nigeria Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Long-Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 .. 36
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Outlook and Overview . 37
Key Projects – Energy and Utilities Infrastructure ... 39
Table: Major Projects – Energy And Utilities 39
Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure 41
Table: Nigeria Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data, 2008 - 2016 41
Table: Nigeria Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Long-Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 .. 41
Residential/Non-Residential Building Outlook and Overview . 42
Major Projects Table – Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure .. 44
Table: Major Projects – Construction And Social Infrastructure 44
Risk/Reward Ratings ... 45
Nigeria’s Risk/Reward Ratings ... 45
Rewards ... 45
Risks ... 45
Regional Overview .. 46
Table: Regional Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings. 47
Company Monitor 50
Julius Berger Nigeria Plc. . 50
Setraco Nigeria Limited ... 51
Global Overview . 52
Methodology .. 59
Industry Forecasts .. 59
Construction Industry .. 60
Data Methodology . 60
New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors ... 60
Construction 61
Capital Investment . 62
Construction Sector Employment . 63
Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings 63
Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators . 64
Project Finance Ratings 65
Table: Design And Construction Phase . 66
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Commercial Construction.. 67
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Energy And Utilities 68
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Transport . 69
Sources 70Table: EQS Data . 8

Table: Nigeria Cement Production and Consumption Data, 2009 - 2016 . 18

Table: Nigeria Cement Production and Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021 . 18

Table: Nigeria Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008 - 2016 . 19

Table: Nigeria Construction And Infrastructure Industry Long-Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 . 20

Table: Nigeria Transport Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008 - 2016 . 25

Table: Nigeria Transport Infrastructure Industry Long Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 . 27

Table: Major Projects - Transport . 31

Table: Nigeria Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008 - 2016 . 36

Table: Nigeria Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Long-Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 . 36

Table: Major Projects – Energy And Utilities . 39

Table: Nigeria Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data, 2008 - 2016 . 41

Table: Nigeria Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Long-Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 . 41

Major Projects Table – Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure . 44

Table: Major Projects – Construction And Social Infrastructure . 44

Table: Regional Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings. 47

Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators . 64

Table: Design And Construction Phase . 66

Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Commercial Construction. 67

Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Energy And Utilities . 68

Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Transport . 69

Nigeria Infrastructure Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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