Italy Defence and Security Report Q3 2012

Published : July 2012
No. of Pages : 91

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BMI’s Italy Defence & Security Report for Q312 examines the country’s defence posture, defence procurement and defence industry. The report seeks to examine how the Italian government is attempting to balance the defence budget amid the sluggish performance of the country’s economy.
The report details the Italian armed forces structure, including its order of battle. In addition, it examines the government’s efforts to streamline the size of the armed forces, and better configure them to perform out-of-area operations. The report also discusses Italy’s long term procurement plans, and the country’s recent procurement trends.
Italy is faced with a number of distinct challenges with regards to its defence sector in the near future.
The country is performing a protracted reorientation of its strategic posture. Essentially, this is reconfiguring the Italian armed forces from their erstwhile NATO posture which sought to defend the southern part of the European continent against Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact aggression, into an adaptable and agile force able to rapidly project power beyond Italy’s borders. For this strategic aspiration to become a reality, the Italian government is pursuing in a number of procurement projects which seek to improve the procurement platforms which enhance the armed force’s power projection capabilities and provide force multiplier capability in theatre. Along with pursuing these objectives, the Italian government is, at the same time, trying to reach these aspirations in period of profound economic stagnation which is having an adverse effect on the country’s economy.
Over the last quarter, BMI has made a number of changes to its forecasts. These include: 􀂃 Adjustments to the defence budget allocated for procurement between 2012-2014. 􀂃 Details of the number of troops that the defence ministry wishes to maintain to support operations overseas.
􀂃 An outline of expected fleet size reductions that will affect the Italian navy as a result of budget cutbacks.
􀂃 Details regarding the expected reductions in the size of the army over the next five to ten years.

Executive Summary ... 5
SWOT Analysis . 6
Italy Security SWOT. 6
Italy Political SWOT 7
Italy Economic SWOT 8
Italy Business Environment SWOT 9
Global Political Outlook . 10
Major Risks Looming In 2012-2013. 10
Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula ... 10
Table: Election Timetable, Q212-Q113 . 14
Wild Cards To Watch ... 17
Europe Security Overview . 20
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s ... 20
Europe In A Global Context... 20
Europe''s Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade ... 20
Eurozone Analysis... 26
What If The Eurozone Collapses? Political Risks Assessed . 26
Security Risk Ratings .. 31
BMI’s Security Ratings 31
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings ... 31
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 32
Political Outlook . 34
Monti To Serve Out Term Despite Rising Opposition ... 34
Table: Italy’s Political Overview . 36
Italy Security Overview 38
Internal Security Situation 38
Organised Crime ... 38
Latest Developments 40
Timeline: Internal Threats . 40
Table: Insurgent Groups .. 41
External Security Situation ... 42
International Terrorism ... 42
Latest Developments 44
Timeline: External Threats 44
Armed Forces And Government Spending ... 46
Armed Forces 46
Defence Posture . 47
International Deployments . 51
Table: Italy’s Foreign Deployments 53
Coordination And Joint Operations . 53
Weapons Of Mass Destruction ... 53
Market Overview . 56
Arms Trade .. 56
Defence And Procurement . 59
Table: Italy’s Key Defence Players .. 60
Timeline: Defence And Procurement ... 61
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 63
Armed Forces 63
Table: Italy’s Armed Forces Personnel, 2002-2009 (’000, unless otherwise stated) . 63
Table: Italy’s Manpower Available For Military Service, 2011-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 63
Defence Expenditure 64
Table: Italy’s Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 ... 64
Table: Italy’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) . 64
Defence Trade 64
Table: Italy’s Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 66
Table: Italy’s Defence Exports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 66
Table: Italy’s Defence Trade Balance, 2009-2016 (US$mn) ... 67
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 67
Macroeconomic Forecast . 67
2012 Recession To Be Followed By Anaemic Recovery . 67
Table: Italy – GDP By Expenditure, 2008-2016 (%) . 73
Company Profiles . 74
AgustaWestland . 74
Avio 76
Fincantieri ... 78
Finmeccanica. 80
MBDA 83
Italy Demographic Outlook 85
Italy''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) 85
Italy''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 86
Italy''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 .. 87
Italy''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 88
Methodology ... 89
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 89
Defence Industry 89
Sources 90Table: Election Timetable, Q212-Q113 . 14

Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings . 31

Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 32

Table: Italy''s Political Overview . 36

Table: Insurgent Groups . 41

Table: Italy''s Foreign Deployments . 53

Table: Italy''s Key Defence Players . 60

Table: Italy''s Armed Forces Personnel, 2002-2009 (''000, unless otherwise stated) . 63

Table: Italy''s Manpower Available For Military Service, 2011-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) . 63

Table: Italy''s Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 . 64

Table: Italy''s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) . 64

Table: Italy''s Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) . 66

Table: Italy''s Defence Exports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) . 66

Table: Italy''s Defence Trade Balance, 2009-2016 (US$mn) . 67

Table: Italy – GDP By Expenditure, 2008-2016 (%) . 73

Italy Defence and Security Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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