Hungary Telecommunications Report Q3 2012

Published : July 2012
No. of Pages : 125

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BMI''s Q312 Hungary Telecommunications report analyses the latest trends and developments, including the potentially damaging proposal for a usage based telecoms tax. The report also includes BMI''s forecasts for Hungary''s fixed-line, broadband, mobile subscriber and mobile monthly blended ARPU through to the end of 2016. Our forecasts are based on analysis of regulations, market trends and data from both the regulator and operators Telenor, Deutsche Telekom-owned T-Mobile and Vodafone Hungary, covering the period to the end of December 2011.
In May 2012 the government announced the Szell Kalman Plan 2.0, Hungary''s budget for addressing its deficit, in which the government announced proposals for new usage-based taxes on the telecommunications sector. The proposal is for HUF2 per minute tax on telephone calls and HUF2 tax per SMS. The proposed taxes are expected to generate HUF30bn in 2012 and HUF52bn in 2013. BMI believes the tax will have negative impact on operators and the sector''s development trajectory by incentivising VoIP and SMS IP substitution.
The most recent complete set of operator data relate to the period to the end of December 2011, with only Telenor reporting data for Q112 at the time of writing. In the face of macroeconomic headwinds, the Hungarian mobile market experienced a difficult 2011, with uncertainty continuing into 2012 as a result of the government''s tax proposal, Hungary''s macroeconomic outlook and the wider eurozone crisis. Over FY11 the market experienced declining subscriber numbers, with total subscriptions down 4% y-o-y to 10.87mn, but an improving subscriber mix stemming from large prepaid losses in Q111. Subscriber losses were compounded by steep declines in ARPU. BMI calculates that the market share weighted monthly blended ARPU declined 16.5% y-o-y to HUF3,184 in Q112, while prepaid and postpaid ARPU were declined 15.7% and 18.2% respectively.
In terms of operators, Vodafone was the clear outperformer, losing 2,000 subscribers in 2011, while Telenor and T-Mobile lost 63,000 and 391,000 respectively. T-Mobile''s parent company has stated that the loss is related to a restating of figures and this time excludes business customers, and therefore we do not expect a repeat of these losses in 2012. As such BMI forecasts the market will return to growth in 2012, and average 1.8% y-o-y subscriber growth during 2012-2016 with the market reaching penetration of 119.9% by YE16.
However, we expect quarters of subscriber losses resulting from inactive subscriber discounting that mean growth will be volatile. We maintain our view that operator ARPUs will remain under downward pressure as a result of macroeconomic conditions and price competition in the market, which could be exacerbated by a new entrant.
Meanwhile, there are a few bright spots in the fixed-voice and broadband segment. VoIP has continued to grow rapidly as customers take voice services as part of bundled packages and total broadband subscriptions have continued to grow rapidly. Growth has been particularly strong for higher capacity connections such as cable using DOCSIS3.0 or FTTx, boding well for value generation by operators in the coming years. Finally, mobile broadband has maintained its popularity, although the regulator does not release figures for dedicated mobile broadband so it is not possible to gauge which sub-segment in mobile broadband is driving growth.

Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis   9
Mobile SWOT 9
Fixed-Line And Internet SWOT 11
Political 13
Economic 14
Business Environment 15
Business Environment Analysis 17
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings 17
Industry Rewards 18
Industry Risks   20
Country Rewards 21
Country Risks   22
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312   23
Hungary 24
Industry Forecast 26
Mobile 26
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts   26
ARPU   28
Table: Telecoms Sector - Monthly Blended ARPU - Historical Data & Forecasts (HUF) 28
Fixed Line   30
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts   30
Internet   32
Table: Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009 - 2016   32
Market Data Analysis 34
Mobile 34
Table: Hungary - Mobile Market, Q411   35
Table: Hungary - Mobile Market Net Additions (''000), Q410-Q411 37
Table: MTRs In Hungary (HUF unless stated otherwise) 41
Table: Telenor And T-Mobile ARPU (HUF) 43
Table: Hungary Mobile Market - Prepaid And Postpaid Subscribers (''000), Q310-Q411 44
Table: Mobile Contract Wins   45
Mobile Operator Data   46
Table: Total Mobile Market - Hungary 46
Table: Telenor 47
Table: T-Mobile 48
Table: Vodafone   50
Industry Trend Analysis   51
Cashing In On Data 52
Table: Mobile Broadband Subscriptions By Operator 52
Content Is King   53
Table: Top 10 Sites by Visits On Opera Mini-browser, Select Countries in CEE 54
Country Outlook   56
Table: Selected VAS Services 62
Fixed Line   63
Table: Total Fixed-Line Subscriptions By Technology (''000), Q111-Q112   63
Broadband   67
Table: Mobile Broadband Coverage, March 2012 (q-o-q increase in brackets, pps)   71
Table: Magyar Telekom Pay-TV Subscriptions By Technology (''000) And Blended TV ARPU (HUF) 72
Table: Wireline Developments, 2008-2010 75
Regulatory Development 76
Table: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities   77
Regulatory Developments 78
Table: Mobile Termination Rates In Hungary, 2005-2010 82
Competitive Landscape 83
Table: Key Players - Hungary Telecoms Sector   83
Table: Selected Operators - Financial Indicators (US$mn) 83
Company News Alert 84
Localising Strategy To Turnaround Revenue Trend 85
Table: Ericsson Has Company Going Local In Skolkovo   87
Ericsson Strategy Set To Exploit Technology Trends   87
Risks To Outlook   89
Operator Profiles 90
Magyar Telekom   90
Invitel Holdings 96
T-Mobile Hungary   101
Telenor Hungary 106
Vodafone Hungary   111
Market Overview   115
Mobile   115
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 115
Fixed line   116
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview 117
Broadband 117
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview   118
Glossary . 120
Table: Glossary Of Terms 120
Methodology   122
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 122
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 123
Table: Ratings Indicators 124
Table: Weighting Of Indicators   125Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312   23
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts   26
Table: Telecoms Sector - Monthly Blended ARPU - Historical Data & Forecasts (HUF) 28
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts   30
Table: Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009 - 2016   32
Table: Hungary - Mobile Market, Q411   35
Table: Hungary - Mobile Market Net Additions (''000), Q410-Q411 37
Table: MTRs In Hungary (HUF unless stated otherwise) 41
Table: Telenor And T-Mobile ARPU (HUF) 43
Table: Hungary Mobile Market - Prepaid And Postpaid Subscribers (''000), Q310-Q411 44
Table: Mobile Contract Wins   45
Table: Total Mobile Market - Hungary 46
Table: Telenor 47
Table: T-Mobile 48
Table: Vodafone   50
Table: Mobile Broadband Subscriptions By Operator 52
Table: Top 10 Sites by Visits On Opera Mini-browser, Select Countries in CEE 54
Table: Selected VAS Services 62
Table: Total Fixed-Line Subscriptions By Technology (''000), Q111-Q112   63
Table: Mobile Broadband Coverage, March 2012 (q-o-q increase in brackets, pps)   71
Table: Magyar Telekom Pay-TV Subscriptions By Technology (''000) And Blended TV ARPU (HUF) 72
Table: Wireline Developments, 2008-2010 75
Table: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities   77
Table: Mobile Termination Rates In Hungary, 2005-2010 82
Table: Key Players - Hungary Telecoms Sector   83
Table: Selected Operators - Financial Indicators (US$mn) 83
Table: Ericsson Has Company Going Local In Skolkovo   87
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 115
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview 117
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview   118
Table: Glossary Of Terms 120
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 122
Table: Ratings Indicators 124
Table: Weighting Of Indicators   125

Hungary Telecommunications Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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