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France Telecommunications Report Q3 2012

Published : July 2012
No. of Pages : 112

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The Q312 update to BMI’s France Telecommunications Report is the first to include subscriber data and analysis for Free Mobile, which became the fourth mobile network operator in January 2012. The report includes data analysis of the four key telecoms markets – mobile, fixed-line, broadband and pay-TV – based on data disclosed by the principal operators, as well as the national regulatory authority, ARCEP.
The report also contains analysis of industry trends and developments and regulatory proceedings, such as mobile termination rate cuts, 4G spectrum licensing and fibre roll-out. Using these data and analysis of network operator strategy, we have adjusted our five-year forecasts for these markets as appropriate.
The launch of Free Mobile with aggressive pricing to win market share in Q112 has had considerable impact on the market. Free reported a subscriber base of 2.6mn at the end of March 2012, driving market growth of 907,000 net additions in Q112, up considerably from the levels in Q110 and Q111. Its low price offers have caused considerable disruption to existing mobile network operators Orange, SFR and Bouygues Telecom, as well as the MVNO segment, all of which reported subscriber losses in Q112. Free’s launch, along with cuts to mobile termination rates in January 2012, caused a revenue squeeze that has seen mobile ARPUs decline. With further mobile termination rate cuts scheduled for July 2012 and January 2013, and Free expected to persist as a low-price disruptive force in the market in the short-tomedium term, BMI has made a downward revision to the French ARPU forecast. However, the majority of the impact of regulatory measures and Free’s launch had already been factored into our forecast.
Further, we expect the impact of Free to lessen in the medium term as it moves towards more sustainable pricing strategy once market share objectives are achieved.
The broadband market has continued to evolve rapidly with the leading four fixed broadband operators reporting combined net additions of 304,000 in Q112. Iliad, Free’s parent company, reported a particularly strong quarter with 191,000 net additions, boosted by attractively priced offers for converged service packages. We expect the market to move towards higher capacity technologies in both fixed and mobile, catalysed by operator investment in both fixed and mobile technologies. As is the case across much of the rest of Europe, fixed growth is increasingly coming from fibre technologies, both FTTx and hybrid-fibre coaxial cable systems, capable of high-speed connections of up to 100Mbps. Meanwhile, mobile broadband has grown rapidly, although we expect rates to slow in the absence of the roll-out of LTE services capable of offering speeds that rival fixed-line connections, thus opening up the mobile market to more demanding broadband customers who would not currently switch.

Executive Summary ... 7
SWOT Analysis 8
France Mobile Business Environment SWOT .. 8
France Wireline Business Environment SWOT 9
France Political SWOT .. 9
France Economic SWOT .. 10
France Business Environment SWOT .. 10
Risk/Reward Ratings ... 11
Western Europe.. 11
Table: Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312 13
France 14
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 16
Mobile . 16
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 ... 16
Mobile ARPU 18
Table: Mobile Monthly Blended ARPU – Historical Data And Forecasts (EUR), 2009-2016 ... 18
Fixed Line . 20
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 .. 20
Internet 21
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 .. 21
Market Data Analysis ... 23
Mobile . 23
Title: French Mobile Market Net Additions (‘000), Q110-Q112 .. 24
Table: French Mobile Market, Q112 ... 28
Subscriber Mix ... 30
ARPU . 31
3G .. 32
4G/LTE 35
Table: French Mobile Spectrum Allocations .. 36
Mobile Contract Wins . 38
Table: France Mobile Contract Wins .. 38
Mobile Operator Tables 39
Table: France Mobile Market Overview 39
Table: Orange 39
Table: SFR ... 41
Table: Bouygues 43
Table: MVNO. 44
Mobile Content . 45
Regional Outlook ... 45
Table: Smart Meter Race Is On.. 49
Country Focus ... 49
SMS 50
Table: Orange Broadband Subscribers (‘000) . 52
VAS Timeline 55
Table: VAS Timeline 55
Fixed Line . 56
Table: French Fixed-Line Market, Q409-Q211 ... 57
Internet 59
Table: Broadband Net Additions By Technology (‘000) 59
ARPU . 63
Broadband Technologies . 64
Table: France Télécom FTTH 71
Wireline Developments . 76
Table: Wireline Developments ... 76
Regulatory Environment ... 77
Table: Division Of Regulatory Responsibilities In France . 77
Background And Regulatory Bodies 78
Regulatory Developments . 78
Competitive Landscape 81
Market Overview 81
Table: Key Players – France Télécoms Sector . 81
Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators, 2006-2010 ... 81
Company Monitor 82
Operator Profiles . 86
France Télécom . 86
Orange . 91
SFR 94
Bouygues Telecom . 98
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview ... 102
Fixed Line .. 102
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview 102
Broadband . 103
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview 103
Mobile 104
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview .. 104
Country Snapshot: France Demographic Data 105
Table: France''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) ... 106
Table: France''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 106
Table: France''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020. 107
Table: France''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 108
Glossary Of Terms . 109
Table: Glossary Of Terms 109
BMI Methodology ... 110
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 110
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 110
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 112
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 112
Table: Ratings Indicators . 113
Weighting ... 114
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 114
Sources .. 114Table: Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312 . 13

Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 16

Table: Mobile Monthly Blended ARPU – Historical Data And Forecasts (EUR), 2009-2016 . 18

Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 20

Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 21

Table: French Mobile Market, Q112 . 28

Table: French Mobile Spectrum Allocations . 36

Table: France Mobile Contract Wins . 38

Mobile Operator Tables . 39

Table: France Mobile Market Overview . 39

Table: Orange . 39

Table: SFR . 41

Table: Bouygues . 43

Table: MVNO. 44

Table: Smart Meter Race Is On. 49

Table: Orange Broadband Subscribers (‘000) . 52

Table: VAS Timeline . 55

Table: French Fixed-Line Market, Q409-Q211 . 57

Table: Broadband Net Additions By Technology (‘000) . 59

Table: France Télécom FTTH. 71

Table: Wireline Developments . 76

Table: Division Of Regulatory Responsibilities In France . 77

Table: Key Players – France Télécoms Sector . 81

Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators, 2006-2010 . 81

Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview . 102

Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview . 103

Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview . 104

Table: France''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) . 106

Table: France''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 106

Table: France''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020. 107

Table: France''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 108

Table: Glossary Of Terms . 109

Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts . 110

Table: Ratings Indicators . 113

Table: Weighting Of Indicators. 114

France Telecommunications Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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