Czech Republic Autos Report Q3 2012

Published : July 2012
No. of Pages : 56

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Czech vehicle sales figures for the first five months of 2012 have prompted us to revise both our passenger car and commercial vehicle sales forecasts for the year. Passenger car sales in the Czech Republic have increased 5.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first five months of 2012. In light of this, we are revising our forecast from a 7.32% contraction in 2012 to growth of 3%. A number of factors affecting consumer sentiment and purchasing power lead us to believe that passenger car sales will not be able to maintain the strong rate of growth observed in the first five months of the year.
Commercial sales in Czech Republic have decreased 3.9% y-o-y in the first five months of 2012. This is composed of a 2.8% y-o-y reduction in light CV sales, and a 5.3% y-o-y reduction in truck sales. BMI''s original forecast was 3.83% growth in 2012; in light of the latest sales figures and expectations for the rest of 2012, we are revising this downward to a more bearish 1% growth for the year. The Czech Statistics Office''s composite business confidence index remains in a negative trend, falling to 88.3 in May from 89.5, however, drilling down into the sub-components of the index show that construction confidence remains deeply negative (hence the sharper reduction in truck sales), while industry confidence has just turned negative. We expect that this degree of pessimism towards the business environment, likely stemming from the economic and political malaise in the eurozone, will mean that businesses postpone investment projects until the economic environment picks up.
BMI''s medium to long term outlook for Czech production envisages less than 6% y-o-y growth in on average between 2012 and 2016, after a 7% y-o-y increase in the preceding five years. Much of this growth will be led by the production plans of Skoda Auto and Hyundai Motor, which are benefitting from growing popularity in Europe and key emerging markets such as China and India. Both carmakers use the Czech Republic as a key base for export-led production, which makes it crucial for the Czech Republic to maintain its competitiveness. In China, Skoda Auto sold more than 59,200 cars in Q112, an 8.9% y-o-y increase, while in India, clients bought more than 11,500 cars in Q112, a growth of 40% y-o-y.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Czech Republic Autos Industry SWOT ... 6
Czech Republic Political SWOT . 7
Czech Republic Economic SWOT .. 7
Czech Republic Business Environment SWOT ... 8
Global Overview ... 9
Global Autos Update: End Of First Quarter Brings Both Positive And Negative Revisions As Key Trends ... 9
Table: Passenger Car Sales (Units), Jan-March 2012 ... 9
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings .. 13
Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region''s Score In BMI Ratings . 13
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe . 17
Regional Overview . 18
Audi''s Ducati Purchase: Rivalry Wins Over Strategy ... 18
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario . 22
Table: Czech Republic - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 .. 24
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 25
Table: Czech Autos Production 25
Table: Czech Autos Sales . 25
Trade . 28
Table: Czech Autos Trade (CBUs unless otherwise stated) . 28
Competitive Landscape 29
Market Overview ... 29
Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - Passenger Cars 2011 30
Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - Passenger Cars Jan-Apr ... 32
Passenger Cars .. 33
Commercial Vehicles . 34
Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - New Light CVs 2011 . 35
Table: Czech Republic Top Key Players - Trucks 2011 ... 36
Table: Czech Republic Top Key Players - Buses 2011 . 36
Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - New Light CVs Jan-Apr 37
Table: Czech Republic Top Key Players - Trucks Jan-Apr .. 38
Table: Czech Republic Top Key Players - Buses Jan-Apr 38
Suppliers 40
Used Cars . 41
Company Monitor .. 43
GM-PSA Alliance Misses The Core Issue . 43
Company Profiles .. 46
Peugeot 46
Škoda Auto ... 47
Hyundai ... 49
Country Snapshot: Czech Republic Demographic Data ... 50
Table: The Czech Republic''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) . 51
Table: The Czech Republic''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 52
Table: The Czech Republic''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 53
Table: The Czech Republic''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 .. 53
BMI Methodology ... 54
How We Generate Our Forecasting Model .. 54
Sources 55Table: Passenger Car Sales (Units), Jan-March 2012 . 9

Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe . 17

Table: Czech Republic - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 . 24

Table: Czech Autos Production. 25

Table: Czech Autos Sales . 25

Table: Czech Autos Trade (CBUs unless otherwise stated) . 28

Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - Passenger Cars 2011 . 30

Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - Passenger Cars Jan-Apr . 32

Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - New Light CVs 2011 . 35

Table: Czech Republic Top Key Players - Trucks 2011 . 36

Table: Czech Republic Top Key Players - Buses 2011 . 36

Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - New Light CVs Jan-Apr . 37

Table: Czech Republic Top Key Players - Trucks Jan-Apr . 38

Table: Czech Republic Top Key Players - Buses Jan-Apr . 38

Table: The Czech Republic''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) . 51

Table: The Czech Republic''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 52

Table: The Czech Republic''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 53

Table: The Czech Republic''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 53

Czech Republic Autos Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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