Colombia Retail Report Q3 2012

Published : July 2012
No. of Pages : 71

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The Colombia Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on Colombia’s economic outlook of monetary policy and bankingsector regulation.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Colombian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of a potential hard landing in China or a severe recession in the eurozone on the Colombian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Colombian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Colombian per-capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by an impressive 40% to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 19%. The country comes fourth (out of seven) in BMI’s Latin American Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it underperforms slightly for Reward.
Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales expected to grow from US$13.27bn in 2012 to US$22.29bn by the end of the forecast period. This increase, of 68.0%, is higher than the forecast 56.0% rate of growth for overall food sales.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in Colombia''s status as the third most populous country and fifth largest economy in Latin America. In addition, approximately three-quarters of Colombians live in urban areas and almost two-thirds of the population are younger than 30; facts that aid the development potential of the country''s MGR sector, considering its emphasis on convenience shopping for urban dwellers.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views: 􀂃 BMI is revising up its forecast for real GDP growth in 2012 from 4.5% to 4.7%, as we believe economic growth has remained strong in H112. A very strong Q311 reading of 7.7% real GDP growth, with private consumption and fixed investment making substantial contributions, reinforces our view that these components will drive growth in 2012 as well.
􀂃 BMI believes that private consumption will be a key driver of the Colombian economy in 2012, with low unemployment, combined with a 5.8% increase in the minimum wage effective from January 2012, helping support consumption throughout the next 12 months.
􀂃 BMI’s forecast for relatively strong private consumption has been reinforced by an upward retail sales trend. Latest data from DANE show that Colombia''s retail sales rose 5.1% year-on-year (yo- y) in March 2012, following a 9.4% y-o-y rise in February. The March increase in retail sales was led by a 21% rise in purchases of utensils and other products for the home, and by an 18% increase in clothing and textile products.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Colombia Retail Business Environment SWOT ... 7
Colombia Political SWOT ... 8
Colombia Economic SWOT . 8
Market Overview .. 9
Current Trends .. 10
Key Players ... 12
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 14
Consumer Outlook 14
Retail Growth Outlook .. 15
Table: Colombia Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016 15
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segments, 2012f .. 18
Macroeconomic Outlook ... 18
Table: Colombia – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 20
Regional Retail Outlook 21
Table: Latin America Retail Trends, 2009-2016 ... 21
Table: Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn) 22
Table: % Of Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 . 22
Table: Regional Food Consumption, 2009-2016 (US$bn) 23
Table: Regional Mass Grocery Retail, 2009-2016 (US$bn) .. 23
Regional Retail Trends.. 24
Business Environment Outlook ... 31
Table: Latin America Retail Business Environment Ratings . 31
Colombia’s Retail Rating .. 32
Limits To Potential Returns .. 32
Risks To Realisation Of Returns 32
Mass Grocery Retail .. 34
Colombia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 34
Market Overview ... 35
Table: Structure Of Colombia’s MGR Market – Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2004-2010 . 37
Table: Structure Of Colombia’s MGR Market – Value Sales By Format, 2004-2010 (US$bn) . 37
Table: Structure Of Colombia’s MGR Market – Sales By Format, 2004-2010 (COPbn) .. 37
Table: Average Annual Sales Value By Format, 2010 .. 37
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 38
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts 38
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, % .. 39
Industry Developments .. 39
Consumer Electronics... 43
Colombia Consumer Electronics Market SWOT ... 43
Market Overview ... 44
Computers . 46
Table: PC Sales 46
AV Devices 49
Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016 .. 49
Mobile Handsets ... 53
Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016 . 54
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 57
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2008-2016 (US$mn) .. 57
OTC Pharmaceuticals 60
Colombia Pharmaceutical And Healthcare Industry SWOT . 60
Market Overview ... 61
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 62
Table: OTC Medicine Sales, 2008-2016 ... 64
Demographic Outlook ... 65
Table: Colombia''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) .. 66
Table: Colombia''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 67
Table: Colombia''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 68
Table: Colombia''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 ... 68
BMI Methodology ... 69
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 69
Sources.. 70Table: Colombia Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016 . 15

Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segments, 2012f . 18

Table: Colombia – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 . 20

Table: Latin America Retail Trends, 2009-2016 . 21

Table: Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn) . 22

Table: % Of Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 . 22

Table: Regional Food Consumption, 2009-2016 (US$bn) . 23

Table: Regional Mass Grocery Retail, 2009-2016 (US$bn) . 23

Table: Latin America Retail Business Environment Ratings . 31

Table: Structure Of Colombia''s MGR Market – Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2004-2010 . 37

Table: Structure Of Colombia''s MGR Market – Value Sales By Format, 2004-2010 (US$bn) . 37

Table: Structure Of Colombia''s MGR Market – Sales By Format, 2004-2010 (COPbn) . 37

Table: Average Annual Sales Value By Format, 2010 . 37

Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts . 38

Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, % . 39

Table: PC Sales . 46

Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016 . 49

Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016 . 54

Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2008-2016 (US$mn) . 57

Table: OTC Medicine Sales, 2008-2016 . 64

Table: Colombia''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) . 66

Table: Colombia''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 67

Table: Colombia''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 68

Table: Colombia''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 68

Colombia Retail Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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