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Colombia Food and Drink Report Q3 2012

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No. of Pages : 126
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As we believe that economic growth will remain strong further into the year, we have revised up our 2012 forecast for real GDP growth in Colombia, from 4.5% to 4.7%. Growth will be driven by a combination of private consumption and fixed investment, supported by strong foreign direct investment.
Indeed, the major accelerator for Colombian real GDP growth will continue to be private consumption; we expect this to continue over the next few years, boosted by strong credit expansion and low unemployment. In addition, Colombia’s large proportion of low-income consumers means the country has one of the lowest per-capita food consumption rates within the region, leaving much room for growth.
Headline Industry Data (in local currency): 􀂃 2012 per capita food consumption = +13%; forecast to 2016 = +38.1%. 􀂃 2012 alcoholic drink sales = +6%; forecast to 2016 = +20.3%. 􀂃 2012 soft drink sales = +8.1%; forecast to 2016 = +27.4%. 􀂃 2012 mass grocery retail sales = +15.5%; forecast to 2016 = +47.7%. Key Company Trends Nutresa Modernises and Expands: Colombia’s largest food and drink company Grupo Nutresa (formerly Nacional de Chocolates) has recently announced plans to invest US$100mn in order to expand its production capacity and modernise some of its food plants. On the international front the group has not ruled out further acquisitions during the year. According to senior officials the company has up to US$100mn firepower for possible takeovers and is actively searching for potential candidates. At least one or two purchases, possibly in Mexico or Central America, are likely during 2012.
Exito Forges Ahead: Colombia’s largest retailer Almacenes Exito (controlled by French giant Casino) has recently reported buoyant results for 2011 driven by strong domestic consumption. Net profit rose by over 52% for the year, whilst group sales rose by almost 18% to exceed COP8.8bn. The retailer expects to maintain this rate of performance in 2012 with a plan to open more than 100 stores over the year.
Accordingly the retailer is to invest COP200mn over the year to open new stores under the Surtimax, Pomona and Express banners, concentrating on intermediate sized population catchment areas of over 40,000. The group is also launching into new businesses such as opening shopping centres under the Viva banner.
Key Risks To Outlook Monetary Policy: At the domestic level, monetary policy and banking sector regulation could pose important downside risks to our outlook. A sharp rise in private consumption following a policy rate cut would pose an upside risk to our imports forecast, and by extension it would likely result in a larger than expected current account deficit.
Potential Impact Of External Slowdown: Externally, if oil prices decline significantly in response to a larger than expected slowdown in Europe or China, it would pose a downside risk to our exports forecast.
Moreover, a global slowdown could also dry up foreign investment, further damaging Colombia''s ability to finance its current account shortfall.

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Colombia Food Industry SWOT . 9
Colombia Drink Industry SWOT .. 10
Colombia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT .. 11
Business Environment .. 12
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views ... 12
Table: BMI’s Core Views . 23
Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings . 24
Table: Latin America Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q312 (out of 10) ... 25
Table: Latin America Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q312 28
Colombia Risk/Reward Ratings 29
Macroeconomic Section ... 30
Table: Colombia – Selected Investment Projects . 32
Table: Colombia – Economic Activity .. 32
Latin America Sector Outlook ... 33
Bullish Outlook For Colombian Food And Drink 33
Table: Latin America Food & Drink Outlook .. 33
Table: Company Financials . 43
Latin America Sector Outlook ... 44
Brewing Will Continue To Consolidate Around Heineken, SABMiller, ABI . 44
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 49
Consumer Outlook 49
Food .. 50
Food Consumption ... 50
Table: Colombia Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts . 51
Confectionery ... 51
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts .. 52
Canned Food/Prepared Food ... 53
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts ... 53
Table: Jams And Jellies ... 53
Table: Pasta . 54
Table: Dairy. 56
Table: Meat .. 58
Table: Fish ... 60
Drink . 61
Hot Drinks ... 61
Table: Hot Drink Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts . 62
Alcoholic Drinks .. 62
Table: Alcoholic Drink Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts ... 63
Soft Drinks ... 64
Table: Soft Drink Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 65
Mass Grocery Retail . 65
Table: Colombia Mass Grocery Retail – Value Sales by Format – Historical Data & Forecasts 66
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, %. 66
Trade . 67
Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance – Historical Data & Forecasts .. 67
Food 68
Key Company Trends And Developments . 68
Nutresa Modernises and Expands 68
Aid For Banana Sector 68
Dairy Investment Will Trigger Growth In Remote Areas . 68
International Expansion With Focus On The US . 69
Growth In Added-Value Products 70
Trade Affected By Venezuelan Relations .. 71
Market Overview ... 71
Confectionery ... 72
Dairy 72
Meat . 74
Seafood 74
Drink 75
Key Company Trends And Developments . 75
SABmiller Raises Volume Forecasts At Expense Of Price Growth .. 75
Brewing Will Continue To Consolidate Around Heineken, SABMiller, ABI . 77
FEMSA Investing In Colombia 81
Opportunities For Coffee . 82
Market Overview ... 83
Hot Drinks ... 83
Soft Drinks And Bottled Water . 84
Alcoholic Drinks .. 84
Mass Grocery Retail .. 86
Key Company Trends And Developments . 86
Exito Forges Ahead.. 86
Ripley To Open First Colombian Outlet .. 86
J. Martins To Launch In Colombia With Biedronka Discount Model .. 86
Exito Regional Profile Boosted 88
Colombian Convenience Sector To Become Keenly Contested Battleground... 89
Market Overview ... 90
Table: Structure Of Colombia’s MGR Market – Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2004-2010 92
Table: Structure Of Colombia’s MGR Market – Value Sales By Format, 2004-2010 (US$bn) 92
Table: Structure Of Colombia’s MGR Market – Sales By Format, 2004-2010 (COPbn) . 92
Table: Average Annual Sales Value By Format, 2010 . 93
Competitive Landscape 94
Consumer Share Price Analysis 94
Key Players ... 97
Table: Key Players in Colombia''s Food Sector ... 97
Table: Key Players in Colombia''s Drink Sector ... 98
Table: Key Players in Colombia''s Mass Grocery Retail Market .. 99
Company Profiles 100
Food 100
C.I. Union de Bananeros de Uraba (Uniban) 100
Alianza Team (Tecnologia Empresarial de Alimentos) .. 102
Grupo Nutresa ... 103
Drink ... 105
Postóbon 105
SABMiller Colombia .. 107
Mass Grocery Retail ... 109
Almacenes Exito . 109
Carrefour (Colombia) 112
Olímpica 114
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ... 116
Table: Rewards .. 116
Table: Risks ... 117
Weighting 117
Table: Weighting 117
BMI Methodology . 118
Demographic Outlook . 118
Table: Colombia''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) ... 119
Table: Colombia''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) .. 120
Table: Colombia''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 .. 121
Table: Colombia''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 121
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary . 122
Food & Drink.. 122
Mass Grocery Retail ... 122
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing ... 124
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 124
Sourcing . 125Table: BMI''s Core Views . 23


Table: Latin America Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q312 (out of 10) . 25


Table: Latin America Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q312 . 28


Table: Colombia – Selected Investment Projects . 32


Table: Colombia – Economic Activity . 32


Table: Latin America Food & Drink Outlook . 33


Table: Company Financials . 43


Table: Colombia Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts . 51


Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts . 52


Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts . 53


Table: Jams And Jellies . 53


Table: Pasta . 54


Table: Dairy. 56


Table: Meat . 58


Table: Fish . 60


Table: Hot Drink Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts . 62


Table: Alcoholic Drink Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts . 63


Table: Soft Drink Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts . 65


Table: Colombia Mass Grocery Retail – Value Sales by Format – Historical Data & Forecasts . 66


Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, %. 66


Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance – Historical Data & Forecasts . 67


Table: Structure Of Colombia''s MGR Market – Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2004-2010 . 92


Table: Structure Of Colombia''s MGR Market – Value Sales By Format, 2004-2010 (US$bn) . 92


Table: Structure Of Colombia''s MGR Market – Sales By Format, 2004-2010 (COPbn) . 92


Table: Average Annual Sales Value By Format, 2010 . 93


Table: Key Players in Colombia''s Food Sector . 97


Table: Key Players in Colombia''s Drink Sector . 98


Table: Key Players in Colombia''s Mass Grocery Retail Market . 99


Table: Rewards . 116


Table: Risks . 117


Table: Weighting. 117


Table: Colombia''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) . 119


Table: Colombia''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 120


Table: Colombia''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 121


Table: Colombia''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 121

Colombia Food and Drink Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International
 

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