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Chile Real Estate Report Q3 2012

Published : July 2012
No. of Pages : 56

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The Chile Real Estate report examines the Commercial Office, Retail and Industrial segments throughout the country in the context of a historically buoyant market, whose economic growth looks set to cool gradually over the coming years.
With a focus on the principal cities of Santiago and Valdivia, the report covers the rental market performance in terms of rates and yields over the past 18 months and examines how best to maximise returns in the commercial real estate market, while minimising investment risk and exploring the dynamic supply and demand landscape: in spite of new supply, absorption rates are generally holding up across the board. Increasing demand and supply is the general trend across all commercial real estate sub-sectors, and as a result, rents are mostly increasing. The country’s status as Latin America’s most prosperous region has helped it retain stability and caused it to become a target destination for people looking to enter into a more predictable market than the eurozone, in particular.
However, even in Chile – where growth over the past 18 months has been strong in the office, retail and industrial sub-sectors – current global economic woes may yet take their toll. Our most recent round of in-country interviews, conducted in December 2011, indicate that 2012 rental growth is likely to be much slower, or to come to a halt altogether. This is unsurprising in the face of a cautious market for international investment and is still a testament to the country’s stability that no declines are expected.
In addition, BMI is currently of the view that the Chilean economy is set for a slowdown, as the potential for recession in the eurozone is combining with declining exports and gross fixed capital formation to drag on economic growth. However, we believe that the authorities in Chile are well equipped to prevent any severe downturn.
Key Points: 􀂃 We believe that robust credit growth and a positive medium-term outlook for fixed investment will continue to underpin Chile''s economic growth over the medium term. While moderating copper prices and a still precarious global macroeconomic outlook will cause the Chilean economy to cool somewhat in 2012, the authorities have plenty of ammunition on the monetary and fiscal front to weather external shocks, informing our above-consensus Chilean real GDP growth forecast of 4.8% for 2012.
􀂃 In the construction sector, the strong growth seen over 2011 is expected to moderate in 2012; however, activity will remain robust, accelerating in 2013 and 2014. A combination of residential construction and industrial and infrastructure projects related to the mining sector are fuelling strong construction sector employment and activity, indicating a buoyant project pipeline and industry.

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 6
Chile Real Estate/Construction SWOT... 6
Chile Political SWOT . 7
Chile Economic SWOT .. 8
Chile Business Environment SWOT ... 8
Real Estate Market Overview .. 9
Market Analysis – Office 12
Supply And Demand. 12
Rents And Yields .. 12
Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (USD per m2/month) . 13
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%) . 13
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/Leases - Mid 2011 ... 13
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 14
Table: Forecast Rents - (USD per m2/month).. 14
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%) .. 15
Market Analysis – Retail 16
Supply And Demand. 16
Rents And Yields .. 16
Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (USD per m2/month) . 17
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%) . 17
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/Leases - Mid 2011 ... 17
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 18
Table: Forecast Rents - (USD per m2/month).. 18
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 . 19
Table: Chile Retail Sales Indicators, 2008 - 2016 ... 19
Market Analysis – Industrial .. 20
Supply And Demand. 20
Rents And Yields .. 20
Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (USD per m2/month) . 21
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 21
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases - Mid-2011 .. 21
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 22
Table: Forecast Rents - (USB per m2/month) .. 22
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 . 22
Forecast Scenarios 23
Infrastructure Report 23
Table: Chile Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data .. 23
Table: Chile Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data .. 24
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario . 24
Macroeconomic Outlook ... 27
Table: Chile - Economic Activity . 28
Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings . 29
Real Estate/Construction Risk/Reward Ratings 29
Table: Latin America Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312 ... 29
Chile’s Business Environment... 29
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings ... 30
Institutions ... 30
Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating .. 31
Infrastructure ... 33
Table: Labour Force Quality ... 35
Table: Latin America, Annual FDI Inflows .. 37
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings .. 38
Table: Top Export Destinations ... 39
Operational Risk .. 40
Competitive Landscape . 41
Company Monitor ... 43
Abertis . 43
Besalco SA ... 44
Grupo ACS ... 45
Demographic Data .. 46
Table: Chile''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) 47
Table: Chile''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) ... 48
Table: Chile''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 ... 49
Table: Chile''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 49
BMI Methodology ... 50
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 50
Construction Industry .. 51
Bank Lending ... 52
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating .. 52
Table: Weighting Of Indicators ... 53
Sources 55Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (USD per m2/month) . 13

Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%) . 13

Table: Terms of Rental Contract/Leases - Mid 2011 . 13

Table: Forecast Rents - (USD per m2/month). 14

Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%) . 15

Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (USD per m2/month) . 17

Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%) . 17

Table: Terms of Rental Contract/Leases - Mid 2011 . 17

Table: Forecast Rents - (USD per m2/month). 18

Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 . 19

Table: Chile Retail Sales Indicators, 2008 - 2016 . 19

Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (USD per m2/month) . 21

Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 . 21

Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases - Mid-2011 . 21

Table: Forecast Rents - (USB per m2/month) . 22

Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 . 22

Table: Chile Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data . 23

Table: Chile Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data . 24

Table: Chile - Economic Activity . 28

Table: Latin America Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312 . 29

Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings . 30

Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating . 31

Table: Labour Force Quality . 35

Table: Latin America, Annual FDI Inflows . 37

Table: Trade And Investment Ratings . 38

Table: Top Export Destinations . 39

Table: Chile''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) . 47

Table: Chile''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 48

Table: Chile''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 49

Table: Chile''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 49

Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 53

Chile Real Estate Report Q3 2012

Published By: Business Monitor International

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